Cooperation in the framework of “One belt, one road” will Bang their heads to Russia and China?
14 and 15 may in Beijing held the forum of “One belt, one road”. Is the idea of economic zones being promoted by China. One zone is the economic zone of the silk road extending from China to Europe through Central Asia. One way the marine economic zone of the silk road, stretching from Malacca to Europe via the Indian ocean.
To cover the huge financial requirements, China created the Asian infrastructure investment Bank (AIIB). Japan and the United States has not shown to the idea no interest, but the Bank was joined by a large number of countries: taking into account the latest members of their number amounted to 77 countries. It showed political and economic influence of China.
How Japan should behave in relation to the “One belt, one road” and the AIIB?
Need to change your attitude and join the Bank.
The reason: to influence “One belt, one road” and the AIIB. First, Japan could be adjusted, inconvenient aspects in the field of investment and development. In addition, because of this she will get a chance to get on the interested markets. Will also be able to slow down the increasing dependency of “One belt, one road” from China and provide room to maneuver Japan into this sector to provide economic and cultural influence.
In addition, it can be expected that this will bring benefits from the point of view of security. If China will strengthen its position in Central Asia, there are tensions and contradictions with Russia. If done correctly, can reach even before the collision. Let me explain.
You can change the objectives of China
“One belt, one road” is not bad for Japan. If China will develop the “Belt and road”, that is, to take under their political and economic control of Central Asia, this will lead to the emergence of tensions with Russia.
Russia will not tolerate kitasato Central Asia. Before the collapse of the Soviet Union, which happened 20 years ago, it was her territory. Similar steps will cause Russia a sense of loss of territory. Russia has agreed to Ukraine moved West. So it will intervene and in Central Asia.
In other words, clashing with Russia, China stumbles in Central Asia.
It is beneficial to Japan from the point of view of security. China will actively expand its expansion to the West. Diplomatic and military strength of China is bogged down in Central Asia, to which Japan has no business. Accordingly, reduced Chinese pressure in the East China sea and the Pacific ocean.
If it comes to the Russian-Chinese conflict, perhaps China will be forced to adjust its relations with Japan. There are historical examples: in 60-e years, as a result of the Sino-Soviet conflict in the Dzungarian gate on the island Damansky dramatically improved relations between Japan and China. China changed his tough attitude towards Japan and even agreed to sign a peace Treaty, refusing compensation.
What to do exactly?
Japan should buy natural gas in China. It will embolden energy companies that are strong from a political point of view, and accelerate their entry into the market of Central Asia.
China increases imports of natural gas development in Central Asia. The essence of the project consists in the transportation of gas from Western to the Eastern part of the country. Gas from Turkmenistan, which Russia received almost nothing, comes to the Eastern part of China.
According to some forecasts, in the near future the gas will be in excess. In accordance with the project should be constructed five pipelines from Horgos to Shanghai and Guangzhou. Currently built three of the pipeline.
However, there were doubts about the construction of the fourth and fifth tubes. Moreover, according to some data, consumer prices will be high. There is a surplus of gas with the development of Chinese energy-saving technologies and changing industrial structure.
Japan may buy up the surplus. If support of the Chinese natural gas industry through trade, the exit to the markets of Central Asia is likely to take place in a regular manner. Gas is not very cheap, however if it will contribute to the penetration into Central Asia is quite good.
To invest in Railways
You can also invest in the railway. Changing the size of the track will encourage Russia.
The development of the “Belt and road” involves the creation of a railway network between China and Europe. This project is called “Chinese corridor”. This project is used in regions that are located far from ports. For shipments to Europe are also used Japanese and Korean cars.
The “Chinese corridor” has a weak spot. In Central Asia we have to switch to Russian track gauge (1530 mm). This greatly increases the costs.
Japan can invest in changing the size of the track, in order to “resolve this issue”. Thanks to bring the gauge in line with the Chinese and European standard (1435 millimetres), the Russians and the Russian government give the impression that they have lost their sphere of influence.
This can be done in various ways. To join the AIIB and push from the inside or to provide loans in yen for Chinese projects, and to provide government guarantees on private investments that will lead to the fact that the Chinese side will be based on. In the case of loans China they will pay, come what may. China has never delayed payments.
Or can Japan develop economic cooperation with the countries of Central Asia directly. If Tokyo announced its intention to invest, is indirectly provide support for the Central Asian countries and China. To some extent this will reduce their fears to displease Russia.