Anyone else interested in news from Eastern Ukraine? Who else could be the alarming news that the village of Happiness took over one of the parties, and that killing a number of Ukrainian soldiers and separatists? Who else is interested in an empty conversation about the need to comply with the Minsk agreement, references to which have not lost their essence as they are now understood to be only a cease-fire? The withdrawal of heavy weapons from the conventional front line can happen from time to time, but maybe not. However, never the case never came before the other points of the agreements, confirmed by the signature of senior persons. Because in the end all these agreements should lead to the inevitable return of the disputed territory under the jurisdiction of Ukraine. Even local elections due to constitutional changes, is impossible, because they must organize the Ukrainian authorities after the return of all citizens, initially residing in Donetsk and Lugansk regions. As for Russia, the final goal of the agreements is unacceptable, she is not even on the first step leading to the achievement of such goals. Therefore, the firing will continue, and news will be the same boring monotone.
Almost everyone who visited the territory the rebels had the impression that the local population lives with the feeling of complete hopelessness and fatigue. They took the bait, swallowed the bait in the form of the slogan “Putin help us”, as if he comes and joins the Donbass to Russia, which automatically and immediately lead to prosperity. But instead of prosperity continues in endless war, which has long makes no sense, the continuing economic decay, poverty reigns and complete powerlessness. A whimsical project called “Donbass” fell into a black hole, the bottom of which is already lying around Putin’s other sensational ideas such as the Eurasian Union, the Russian world, Novorossiya, and others. The primary aim of the project was the fact that the Donbass will turn into a constant source of tension, in a kind of Gaza and its people will not remain anything else how to earn a living by endless war. The goal was to convert half a million men in the jihadists of Hamas, for whom the only meaning of life is a Holy war against the secular enemy. The goal seemingly is about to be reached, but it ended as always. Local residents fed up with the uncertainty in life without past and future. Many voted with their feet: the region has left about two million people. A large part moved to other regions of Ukraine, where they have to live in poverty. Similarly, did the lives of those unfortunates, who fled to Russia. Those who remained, fed by the war at the throat and in no hurry to take up arms. There is no such thing for which people would be willing to die — is only ideas, and their warehouse was not.
In the Czech Republic is also still enough of those who believe: in the East of Ukraine’s civil war. This is the main thesis of Russian propaganda: militia allegedly at least two-thirds of local citizens, and the Russian “officers on vacation” there is no more than a third. Some imaginary “Donbass people” allegedly resisting the Kiev colonization. If we leave aside the fact that Russia has deployed on the Ukrainian border military units in numbers exceeding the entire Ukrainian army, and can quickly be on the territory of the neighbor, it had done once before during the battle for Donetsk airport near Ilovaysk and debaltseve, and if you forget about the blatant annexation of the Crimea, which the whole world considers the occupation of foreign territory, still remain questions about the mythical “of the people of Donbass”.
In this case, it is not easy to distinguish the ethnic, cultural and social group, which formed such a community. Moreover, the militia of the breakaway republics representative enough to represent the entire population. Of the eight million residents of Donbass and Lugansk regions took up arms from 30 to 40 thousand men, and that half a percent of the population. But in the ranks of the militia galore and ethnic minorities mainland Russia (Buryatia to numerous Chechens). For the civil war, the motivation of the conflict is too weak: no social or ethnic or religious background. The situation is not difficult to understand: the war unleashed by Russia. Russia has occupied a third of the territory of two regions of neighbouring countries. This is a Russian subversive groups provoked the separatist movement, using hard power, created new institutions of government. Russia armed resistance, provided staff logistics and coordination, supervised the military operations. Is Russia still supplying ammunition, food, equipment, fuel, medicines, money, mercenaries and ammunition. There’s even a Russian military ranks and insignia.
Vladimir Putin can’t admit that he left the region in the lurch after he put him on the brink of survival. The Russian President has well mastered the art of dealing with important characters, which does not require any financial investment. This is the true meaning of the decision taken this year: recognition of personal documents (passports and school and College diplomas) issued by the self-proclaimed republics. This symbolic step in front of the Kremlin regime opens a whole new range of possibilities, in addition, of course, that allows you to exert psychological pressure on the Kiev government. Here there is an option that has already proved itself in relations with Transnistria pseudorepublic: for 25 years, Russia recognized documents about education, issued in this area, as well as driver’s license, state license plates and identity documents. Also a possible scenario that was implemented in South Ossetia: it’s about the so-called signing of the Treaty of mutual defense, the deployment of military contingents and recognition of the local militia part of the armed forces of the Russian Federation. Also there is always a way out of the Minsk agreements due to their obvious ineffectiveness.
An important element of the strategy of hybrid war is bringing chaos in the field of legal norms when the law and the rules no longer apply. With the abolition of visas for holders of documents of the breakaway republics deliberately lost the fact that between Russia and Ukraine has long existed a visa-free regime. Those who have identity card issued by the Ukrainian government to enter Russia, a special permit is not required, and the remaining documents are subject to nostrification. Now in the case of restoration of the visa regime with Ukraine residents of Donetsk and Luhansk will remain the only Ukrainian citizens who can freely cross the border. Many Ukrainian migrant workers this gives a new opportunity — to change the Kiev documents on the passports of DNR and LNR.
Absolutely contrary to the intentions of this resolution as a whole negates all the efforts of the applied first and only confirms the initial status of the territory. Black and white written decision that we are talking only about the territory “of individual regions of Donetsk and Lugansk regions of Ukraine”. Paradoxically, this definition is even clearer terms than the wording of the Ukrainian law, which refers to “some regions with a special regime of local government”. The local population in Putin’s decree is defined as “citizens of Ukraine and stateless persons permanently residing on the territory of certain districts of Luhansk and Donetsk region of Ukraine.” Under current law, the Russian authorities must register the holders of such documents as citizens of Ukraine or stateless persons.
There is a reasonable suspicion that this move Putin makes, first and foremost, with an eye to the West, and not to those who still live in the territories controlled by Russian saboteurs. The meaning of this gesture that the West pushed for the Ukrainian President pushed him to speedy recognition of the Autonomous status of the region and the holding of local elections, and otherwise it will be bad. This confirms the wording of “temporary nature” of the resolution, which will be in effect until final resolution of the situation.
The whole foreign policy of Moscow revolves around Washington, as the Earth revolves around the Sun. Even Russian actions in Syria — only a consequence of this motivation, and the operation is conducted with a constant eye on the American response. Therefore, the recent ruling Putin should be seen as a “trial balloon”. The Kremlin wants to test the reaction of the White house and Brussels, especially after the arrival of Donald trump. While any reaction has not followed, and the Kremlin may go on the offensive and, for example, offer to adapt the format of Minsk to new conditions. However, this is a demonstration of how it will look in the presidential campaign of 2018. She, no doubt, will be held under nationalist slogans, but without the excesses of the period of the Russian world 2014. But if for the remaining months of Poroshenko to break will fail, it is not excluded that the Kremlin will decide on the recognition of the breakaway republics or even for their “voluntary accession” to Russia in the name of the campaign.
In the East of Ukraine we have a serious problem — a typical “frozen” conflict. From time to time Russia will bring it to the boiling point, to thus maintain the tension, destabilizing Ukraine. Will be used special occasions: anniversary, international negotiations, national elections, holidays. People who haven’t left this godforsaken area, will continue to live in limbo in inhuman conditions, in a black hole of international relations. They have no money, no job, and Russia will fuel their propaganda, conveying a heartbreaking message from the war (for this is required from time to time to resume shooting). The line of contact has become a strip of the trenches with concrete fortifications, becoming a de facto new border. Most likely, the parties avoid trying to break through. This requires a massive military strike with the use of heavy weapons, tanks, aircraft and other things. For Putin, seeking a particular normalization of relations with the West, as well as for Poroshenko, who is forced to rely on economic aid from the West, due to the attempts to restore peace, such an attack would mean a great financial loss and aggravation.
Such a development would make the current rebel leaders Zakharchenko and Plotnitsky to go to unpredictable actions. They can’t stay in the Donbass in the event of return under Ukrainian jurisdiction, even if they were promised Amnesty. They are the last local commanders who have not killed their own colleagues, although several attempts have already been. Thus, war is their only guarantee of life. Any hope for peace will cause them to flee immediately. But for Vladimir Putin, the world would be an admission of another defeat. Therefore, there is reason to believe that the conflict in Eastern Ukraine will be frozen for many years — most likely before the “changing of the guard” in the Kremlin.