Whether Lukashenko gave Putin a barrel of honey?

Alexander Lukashenko blamed the Russian media for the fact that distort de the results of his recent negotiations with Vladimir Putin — and strive “a spoonful of tar to throw in a barrel of honey”.

“Start in the media to appear a different sort of speculation, there is someone who deceived, we are once again on my knees requesting things in Russia, and so forth,” — said the Belarusian President in talks with Nizhny Novgorod Governor Valery Shantsev on April 20 in Minsk.


And whether it was necessary to fight?

Hand on heart, the Belarusian non-state media is also quite critical (maybe even more critical than Moscow) evaluated the agreements reached in Strelna near St. Petersburg on April 3. But complaining about “their” press, apparently, is somehow undignified.

Meanwhile, our commentators have come to the conclusion that the compromise happened to a greater extent on the terms of Moscow. And that it is quite unsteady. And that does not solve the problems of the Belarusian economy.

In particular, a discount on gas, Moscow gives less than desirable Minsk, and only for two years — 2018 and 2019. The price of gas though, and will be adjusted reduction factor, but will continue to dance on the formula “Yamal”. And thus again it may be for the Belarusian side, unfavorable with cheaper oil (which is likely). In addition, the Belarusian oil refining margins could shrink as a result of tax maneuver in the Russian oil industry.

Why Putin is kinder to Lukashenko?

So optimistic calculations, the Belarusian Vice-Premier Vladimir Semashko, how much we win on oil and gas matters in the following years, fork in the air.

Note also that the Belarusian authorities silent as our economy lost during the conflict, when Moscow, answering blow for blow, cut the supply of oil, hampered the delivery of our food and put the other stick in the wheel. Meanwhile, for example, foreign currency earnings of Belarusian oil products export over the past year fell by about 40%. On a starvation diet sat our refineries in the first months of this year.

Now Lukashenka is trying to prove that the agreement with Moscow is very beneficial that it is the whole barrel of honey. And it seems that addresses this message not only to Governor Shantsev and other Russian public, how their own electorate. It is necessary to convince the population that knowingly more than a year of butting heads with the Kremlin.

Though if to understand, that without this war, the oil so delivered would be at capacity (24 million tons per year was provided by previous agreements). And a discount on gas would squeeze and peacefully, for the planned negotiations. Moscow never refused to discuss the issue toward a single energy market, simply demanded, in the meantime, pay strictly according to the contract.

In the end she made, and to pay the debt had in haste, partly by so scanty reserves.


Grab loans because investors don’t go

Yes, but Moscow has promised us a new loans. Today the Belarusian President has spoken on this subject: “We pay at 4.5-6%… All countries receive certain credits or from international organizations or from States. Russia we have on these issues is not in first place, it is people’s Republic of China. She provided us with a credit line of about $ 15 billion under-implemented in Belarus the project, we still have not chosen. Most importantly — they have not reproached, help us.”

Well, still the Chinese are reproached! They’re not black. Their loans are mostly associated — to a large extent under their own equipment and labor. So take, dear Belarusians, how much you want to help attach Chinese products and workers.

Another thing is that, as recognized by Lukashenka, the line we did not choose. Although the government goads the Directorate to proposed projects. But we have a system such that “if you do nothing, then there will be no punishment, and if you do something, it can be” noted in comments for Naviny.by economic expert of the “Liberal club” Anton Boltochko.

Three billion from the IMF — well, and with a billion from Russia — even better

Moreover, according to him, the current approaches to the definition of business environment — not enough motivation, not only from public but also from the private sector.

With regard to Russian loans, the case not only in the percentage (although it is higher than in the case of the IMF, from which Minsk asks $ 3 billion for ten years at 2.28 per cent per annum), but in other conditions, said Bolocco. He stressed that Russian loans to a much greater extent than Mvfovskie, European, “accompanied by political aspects, political motivated”.

In addition, if the country concluded program with the IMF, it is a good sign for investors, international lending organizations, said the economist. This would increase the credibility of Belarus and, in particular, would open up the prospect of a more favorable placing of Eurobonds.

In General it would be better not to increase the credit burden on the economy, and attract foreign direct investment that we are “miserable,” the source said Naviny.by. But “no foreign investor does not believe that will treat him better than national business,” remarked Bolocco.

Difficult about the same (say delicately) the history of relations of the power with business (“lousy fleas”, as figuratively once the official leader) to write a drama of Shakespearean intensity.

Yes, now we are preparing a package of documents that upstairs touted as revolutionary in terms of unlocking the enterprise. But such loud announcements before was only for practice decisions was reduced, half. Moreover, as noted Bolocco, “the most liberal law for investors may not work in Belarus.”

Yeah, the higher UPS many times, ignoring all the laws, breaks the Commissar with a revolver in the Affairs of business that even now it become white and fluffy, a new reputation to earn more than one year. Not to mention the fact that such a wonderful transformation of the nature of the Belarusian authorities believe weak.

Roll to one side enhanced

At the meeting with entrenching Lukashenko saluted and the moment that “today in Russia, working on finishing production in Belarus (produce components, materials, etc.), has more than 10 million people. Helping finish the production, maintaining that it had not collapsed, we help at least 10 million (or 15 million) — those people who are and work in Russia”.

In other words, the Belarusian government is trying to keep Belarus as the “Assembly shop of the USSR”. And supposedly from some idealistic, altruistic reasons. But the economy can not be based on altruism. Anyway time socialist industry goes. And what is destined to collapse (because it’s the stone age amid the forefront of the knowledge economy), even better would have collapsed.

And we must note that Russia has created a number of industries, similar to Belarus, but with more advanced technology, so the market will be less friendly for our traditional product.

Yes, restructuring the economy — a thing painful, however, to spend money on enterprise-zombies — in the spirit sayings “mice were crying, injected, but continued to eat cactus” — even worse.

One hitch in the negotiations with the IMF — is exactly what Minsk opposes structural reforms, stubbornly clings to the anachronistic model of state-controlled economy. And in fact the authorities are worried not so much for the working man (where he, poor fellow, to attach, at least for the pleasure to not come out on “March of the parasites”), but because of the support of the political regime.

And because, in particular, with the IMF until there is hard bargaining, and the money we are forced to ask Russia a greater percentage. Reinforcing roll on one wing who criticized Lukashenka himself.