Russia – USA: a new equilibrium

Russia is the most important component of the world order, a security Council member with veto power. Has the second largest nuclear Arsenal and powerful conventional armed forces. Europe is dependent on Russian energy supplies. Russia plays a crucial role in the fight against ISIS (a terrorist organization banned in Russia — approx.ed.). And, most importantly, it is a huge country ruled by Putin.

Any browser will inevitably mention the two greatest figures, Winston Churchill and Henry Kissinger. In her 94 years, Kissinger acts as a direct participant (The Atlantic, Nov 2016) seventy years of U.S. relations with Russia. The American economy is in first place in the world, but “we can’t do it all alone and while at the same time,” says former Secretary of state. At the end of the Second world war, the US accounts for 55% of world GDP and is now less than 22%.

Putin, besides the fact that is the undisputed head of state, also heads Rusia Inc., with all the ensuing interests.

The influential American diplomat Steven Pifer (Steven Pifer) examines the U.S. position in relation to Russia and Vice versa. Now he pays special attention to the Vice-President Mike Pence (Mike Pence) and the Minister of defence James Mattis (James Mattis), who are skeptical towards Russia. The first red line, according to Pifer, that the security of NATO. Pens, Mattis and McMaster (McMaster) were the protagonists of a steep reversal in the policy of trump, who was forced to stop ridiculing the NATO in the first weeks of his stay in the White house. Now trump needs to ensure the security of all NATO members. Russia is not illusions. She was not allowed to use military force against any member of the Alliance, including the three Baltic States. As a retaliatory step, and if Russia will fulfill this condition, the Americans will not intervene in the situation on the Russian borders. Pandora’s box will not open. This is the main obligation of the nuclear powers. Russia has made a very dangerous move, going on is clearly illegal annexation of the Crimea. So, Pifer concludes, it is necessary to prevent any action that will push Russia to a new threat. For example, in parallel with the strengthening of NATO, the General staffs of NATO and Russia in the face of generals Dunford, Dempsey and Gerasimov will inform each other about planned actions in order to avoid the possibility of war, as is done in Moscow today, the Secretary of state Tillerson and foreign Minister Lavrov.

What is the situation at the moment? Russia, with which have to deal with the United States, not the poorly armed country, which invaded Georgia in 2008. The situation is now more serious than the one faced by the Obama Administration in 2009. Given the low prices of oil and gas Russia will be difficult to maintain the level of investment, amounting to 4.2% of GDP in 2005 and may to 3.7% now, twelve years later. But Russia will do it.

In the field of nuclear weapons the power of Russia can be comparable to the power of the United States. serious progress Moscow has made in cyber security, hybrid wars. Episodes to hacker attacks, espionage, interference in internal political processes are not only political problem but also a matter of national security.

Russia wants to keep US and to encourage their Western friends to new negotiations. Given the unsuccessful attempt to integrate Russia into the Euro-Atlantic community, these negotiations could be discussed the following questions: 1. The preservation of the nuclear balance and prevent the proliferation of missiles and medium-range. 2. The strengthening of security in Europe. 3. Interaction in maintaining the geopolitical balance in the Asia-Pacific region, especially China. 4. Joint struggle against ISIS. 20 million Muslims in the South of Russia. A new equilibrium must be based on a global basis, not national interests.

Indeed, Russia is weaker than the United States. Putin may be right in thinking that due to the collapse of the Soviet Union the country was thrown 300 years ago. He knows what constitutes a strategic threat, the threat of radical Islam, the threat of overpopulation in China… In Europe, which Russia considers its historical enemy in the West, it demands the recognition of themselves as great powers, communication on equal terms and does not want to be perceived as the petitioner within the American system. It is also true that (again, as noted by Kissinger) in Russia’s eleven time zones, what was the decisive factor that allowed to stop the Mongol Horde in the XVI century, Napoleon in the nineteenth and Hitler in the twentieth…

The first steps must be done with caution and be prepared for any eventuality. Russia need to learn what it is. Its power is incalculable. The United States also have enormous power, but there is one difference between the two countries: the US cannot change its obligations to the world. Russia, by contrast, always ready. Over the next five to six months we should closely monitor Russia. In March 1945, its soldiers finally entered the center of Berlin after the final battle, which lasted only three days. In the air of the German capital still smell the burned body of Hitler.

Today the task is to integrate Russia into the new world order. To this end, first of all it is necessary to use the levers of cooperation. Since we’re quoting Kissinger, I can’t finish the article, without citing the words spoken by Churchill in October 1939: “I cannot foresee what will be the reaction of Russia, because Russia is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside a puzzle.” Perhaps there is a key to its solution. And it’s quite possible that Russia’s national interests.