The election of Donald trump initially was considered positive for the Russian economy, however, was not yet 100 days after his inauguration, and analysts are already concerned that geopolitical tensions could hurt the American and the Russian economy.
In November in the newsletter financial conglomerate Germany’s Deutsche Bank said that Russia should be the clear beneficiary of the policy of trump, and in the near future the situation in the country stabiliziruemost. “The US President may lift the sanctions, taking advantage of its right to abolish them in the interests of national security. Therefore, we anticipate profitable investment opportunities for the ruble, in the field of loans under state guarantees and bonds of private corporations,” reads the letter from the Bank.
But as tensions between Russia and the United States grows, many analysts believe that this may begin to affect economic growth in both countries.
On Tuesday, the managing Director of research company Trusted Sources in the markets of Europe, Middle East and Africa and global policy research Christopher Granville (Christopher Granville) in his interview to the journalists of CNBC noted that the basis of growth of the Russian stock based on two factors.
“One of them is the agreement on the reduction of oil production concluded in late November last year between the OPEC countries and countries outside of the cartel — including with Russia — which led to the increase in oil prices to 50 dollars per barrel or even higher,’ said Granville.
“The second and more interesting factor is the hopes of easing geopolitical tensions between Russia and the United States and Europe as the result of the election trump in the US and lower in Europe of hostile attitude towards Russia. And this hope was based, in particular, existed at the time the prospect that Mr Fillon (Francois Fillon) is the most probable winner at the presidential elections in France.”
Granville added that these two factors no longer entirely relevant, but, nevertheless, the Russian economy is recovering — if not rapidly, then definitely the pace that analysts had forecast. And valuation of stocks remain very low.
The ruble is trading near the maximum values this year — in addition, due to tight monetary policy and recent weakness of the dollar. The Russian currency has grown since the beginning of the current year by almost 7%. For the period after the US election the eighth of November 2016 MICEX index Micex (Russian stock index) rose more than 4%.
“The scandal in Washington because of Russia, rather, is associated not with Russia, and with US domestic politics, but it interferes with the administration of the tramp to implement its stated plan to improve relations with Russia, says Granville. — To carry out his plan was politically difficult, and even dangerous.”
The US intelligence community had previously accused Russia of meddling in the 2016 elections, saying that Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered a campaign to undermine the credibility of the electoral process and expressed “a clear preference” Trump.
Recently the Senate Committee on intelligence investigating alleged Russian interference in the elections, intends to interrogate the son-in-law trump Jared Kushner (Jared Kushner). Earlier, the Russian Vnesheconombank confirmed that members of its management met with Kouchner, even though the Bank is under Western sanctions.