To calm the “parasites” to reason with Russia. Lukashenko operates a hybrid

The decree against the “parasites” to cancel will not, but to correct and de facto freeze until the end of the year. This follows from the statements of Alexander Lukashenko at a meeting in Minsk on 9 March.

The Belarusian President for the first time after a rest in Sochi has clearly spoken out on this sensitive, explosive, authorities with the subject. De facto chosen combination of measures.

Much tougher, he formulated the position in the multilayer, protracted conflict with Russia: “If someone clever out there thinks we can always be tilted and put on the knees, it will not.”

“Parasites” will reconsider

The growing protests against adopted in 2015, decree № 3 “On the prevention of social dependency”, and also neponyatki with Moscow, which additionally beat fallen into recession the economy — two of the most powerful on today headaches the Belarusian leadership.

In the first case, the radical solution would be to abolish a bad decree. But I think he decided to rewrite it. Sort of cutting off the tail parts. Why so and not in one fell swoop? Official leader, apparently, it is important not to seem like a wuss who gave up to street performances.

But they really bother, because the chosen tactic, which browser Artyom shraibman identified the buzzword — hybrid.

Let me remind you that in January already adopted the “decree on the decree” several regulirovat the original document. At today’s meeting, Lukashenka said that “during March, if necessary we need to correct this decree.” Most likely, this will happen: from his actions will bring even more really disadvantaged people for whom to pay the fee means to remove the shirt.


In addition, the President in his signature style flipped on the vertical. Scolded for “disgusting and irresponsible execution of the decree” and ordered by April 1 to determine the lists (you have to understand: refined, watie) those who must pay the fee. And “God forbid you offend one person”.

That is ordered to make the selection, who is the real parasite and who is not, and the lists seem to be much less than 470 thousand, which is received from the tax “chain letters”.

To repay the protests will try a combination of measures

The second message of the perturbed mass is that during the year the collection of “social dependents” instructed not to recover at all. That is, calm down, no you by the throat does not take. Yet.

Parallel security forces, having received, apparently, the go-ahead from above, began to point and strictly dosed repression against the organizers of the street protests. In the last year and a half, trying not to spoil the normalization of relations with the West, for unauthorized actions only fined, are now to be planted again, but in a matter of day to Brussels and Washington don’t have time to declare a political prisoner.

Today, however, Lukashenko hinted that someone (the main addressee of this message, obviously, is Nikolai Statkevich) might return to prison. The Minister of internal Affairs Igor Shunevich instructed to act more decisively.

Finally, state television uncovered crude weapons of the furious propaganda. Began a campaign of discrediting opposition leaders and fear-mongering — scaring the electorate “bloody Maidan”.

Will there be enough of this combination of measures to stem the tide of protests? Most likely, the effect will be partial. The specifics of the current stock in their decentralization and a large proportion before participating in politics ordinary people. In the arena there are spontaneous instigators of the people. Probably harder than the old opposition leaders, track, and suddenly getting involved in the process of anarchists.

But most importantly — these are ordinary people, yesterday’s solid Lukashenko’s electorate, in principle, annoyed permanent impoverishment.

So although hunters rally, and probably diminished, shares this spring (in particular planned in Minsk on 15 and 25 March) can still be more ambitious than traditional spring marches in recent years.


Otvetka Medvedev

The state economy is largely dependent on the resolution of the conflict with Moscow. Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, who recently severely reined Belarusian counterpart Andrei Kobyakov at a meeting in Bishkek, today received otvetku personally by Lukashenko.

The poisonous named Medvedev as his “long-time friend” and was advised not to scare European gas prices.


The Belarusian President once again reminded about the integration agreements: “We need the leadership of the brotherly Russia fulfilled its obligations. In content and in spirit. If we are building our Union — United state we made the decision to build, that our people and businesses, the business should be equal conditions on the market.”

Also, according to Lukashenko, “Medvedev needs to understand that if we pay in Europe, for something he, too, will have to pay. And the price will be enormously higher than the price of natural gas… Accounting and price of natural gas, which belongs to Medvedev, should not be the basis of our relations.”

This is a clear allusion to the exceptional strategic importance of Belarus for Moscow. There are two important Russian military facilities (radar station near Baranavichy and communications center of the Navy under the Vileika), the allies unified air defense system, a single regional grouping of troops, etc. simply put, Belarus for the Kremlin and the Russian generals is an indispensable springboard for the eternal answer to the insidious West.

The main problem is not the fifth column

Another thing that stuck in this showdown between the big guys Minsk clearly does not want. That, in fact, was one of the reasons for the tightening of the Kremlin’s approach to Lukashenka.

In turn, he is, as you can see from today’s announcement, continues to raise the stakes in the confrontation. However, here tactics, rather, a hybrid: light blackmail, combined with the appeal to the letter of the signed integration documents (although these Cyrillic letters each of the parties manages to read different) and pathos in the spirit of “together we rot in the trenches” (Lukashenko reminded about the big losses of Belarusians during world war II).

Yes, throw down the gauntlet to the Kremlin — it’s a risky game, but what remains? Instantly restructure the economy so that it is not so dependent on Russia, it is impossible. And in principle, the transformation model is afraid of political risks.

It is clear that to withdraw from the Union (Medvedev in Bishkek rude noticed that no one is holding), the Union state, CSTO Lukashenko is not ready. As for beliefs and basic sense of self-preservation. Despite the bravado Medvedev, the Kremlin probably will not forgive the ally of crossing these red lines.

Another thing is that to go too far in relations with Lukashenko Vladimir Putin is still not with his hands. So the most likely outcome of the current conflict will be a shaky compromise. It can strengthen the risks for the Belarusian sovereignty and will not remove from the agenda the question of unpopular reforms in Belarus.

But judging by the fact that the President today recalled the need to ensure that before the end of the year “all-in 500,” there, at the top, continues to dominate a bet on voluntarism and populism.

Order to employ by may 1, all unemployed also is not very realistic. Recently the national statistical Committee first called the actual figure of unemployment is 5.8%. Hundreds of thousands of people, so many jobs in a matter of weeks will not create, if you do not engage in fraud. Meanwhile at many enterprises, and so the surplus labor force, on the mind they need to restructure, ujima States.

Today Lukashenka does not speak about the fifth column, promoting de protests. But the main challenge for the regime — not this “fifth column”, and the trap of “brotherly integration” and phobias before the transformation of the clumsy, creaking all of her rusted nuts system.