Plan Volodina: why choose Putin on the day of the annexation of the Crimea

The Russian presidential election in 2018 could be held on March 18 — the day when Russia and the so-called Crimean authorities signed the documents, completing the annexation of the Peninsula Russia. The proposal was made by the speaker of the state Duma Vyacheslav Volodin. In his opinion, it is very good, because this day coincides with the “wonderful holiday”. Why the Kremlin is trying again to focus on the hackneyed theme of the Crimea and what does such a strategy, “Apostrophe” says Russian political analyst Dmitry Oreshkin.

Something had to happen. Before the election, it is important to split the electorate in proportion, to ensure a convincing victory. That’s what the plane of the boundary line can hold — remains a mystery. And, in fact, now in the Kremlin now decide how to do it. Volodin offers, and probably not just. He is a serious politician, and obviously the case with the date somehow discussed. It offers this version: first, the day of the “annexation of Crimea”, and it is March 18, and secondly, emphasis will be placed on military-Patriotic achievements of Vladimir Putin. Because the last three years, according to sociologists, up to 80% considers the annexation of the Peninsula right step. Thus, taken, really, the agenda and from economic problems, problems of improving the quality of life, international isolation and all sorts of other unpleasant things into pleasant memories. This memory is highly virtual, the heating wounded the Russian consciousness. Then, focusing on it, you can also face risks, because it is already tired.

We just recently saw a signal from the Kremlin that should not be the traditional celebration for the occasion in red square, and it is better somewhere a bit further away — mute. Volodin represents the opposite strategy. This means that different groups propose different scenarios for the elections. Relatively speaking, the Kremlin wants to distance himself and gently pull on the brake Crimean theme, considering that she was exhausted. And Volodin on the contrary believes that it is necessary to pump up, to shake, to strengthen and make the dominant line of the campaign. Both of these methods involve risks. Indeed, as you can feed the public opinion of Crimea? It already ate, actually. And now the conversation is built differently: well, we have the Crimea “annexed” we are strong and mighty, the rich. But now I would like to see the reflection of the improvement in purses. To see this, can not and will not succeed.

So I think that volodinskaya strategy will be more readily supported by the Kremlin from rational considerations. Because propaganda in the hands of the Kremlin: you can rock, we can tell you how we escaped a NATO base and another from some sort of horror, and so great a mighty nation to defend its historical rights to the Taurida. It is possible to tell — it is inexpensive. And, in General, it works.

Crimea is now the only, though virtual, the conquest of which remain a source of support of public opinion. In this paradox. Because the Crimea to cost 100 billion rubles annually to the Russian budget. Just some $ 1.5 billion with a GDP of 1.3 trillion. It’s not even a cent and a tenth of a percent of GDP. Another issue is that there is still Chechnya, and “DNR”, “LNR”, Abkhazia and others — and builds up. Yes, Crimea is unprofitable territory, but not in the virtual space.

So the statement Volodina is an important signal for understanding the realities of the strategies that can be part of the election campaign. The last word, of course, for Vladimir Putin, say, or here, or here. Of course, we can call this strategy the confusion. And you can call it the struggle of different groups of influence at the throne, which offer the highest face different strategies, respectively. They struggle to their strategy first person and took what increases the status of these people. It’s not confusion, it is — listing of options and selection of the optimal or, which is more like Vladimir Putin. In a vertical state something like the head, and optimally.