Debates in Washington about Russia’s role in trying to influence the outcome of the US presidential election is part of a much larger problem. The main issue is how to respond to a long-term campaign of Moscow, aimed at intimidating neighbors, the destabilization of Europe and the undermining of NATO. Nationalist and revanchist Russia, a divided and weakened Europe, as well as inattentive and unpredictable, the United States created an unprecedented and dangerous circumstances. It was in the pages of the analytical publication The National Interest writes the chief Advisor to the President of the United States from Central RAND Brian Michael Jenkins.
He recalled that Russian President Vladimir Putin wants the West to treat Russia as a superpower, but also admitted her right to his so-called “sphere of influence” and in General on the return of the territories of the former USSR. These revanchist strengthened its fear of mass protests, like the revolutions in Ukraine and Georgia, which the Kremlin called colored. Western hopes that democratic Russia with a free market economy will be able to integrate with Western institutions and become a partner of NATO did not materialize.
Despite all attempts to achieve such cooperation, Putin still sees NATO as an enemy that was a constant theme in Russian propaganda. The Alliance expanded dramatically after the Soviet collapse. And the Kremlin believes the entry of Ukraine, Georgia or Moldova in the defensive organization of an “act of aggression”. To impose its “sphere of influence” in the area from the Baltic to Bulgaria, Putin wants to convince all the countries in this territory that NATO cannot and will not defend them.
The Kremlin believes that it can weaken the already shaky European unity and the Western Alliance, if these countries will remain weak. The expert recalled that Moscow remains a nuclear power and modernizing its strategic Arsenal and conventional forces. “Moscow will use force, if you see that you can do it with impunity, as in Georgia and Ukraine,” the article says.
But Russian strategists know that the political tools of warfare, such as propaganda, economic pressure and the financing of loyal foreign groups and parties, can be a cheap way to achieve the goals. These techniques are not new. In Soviet times they were called “active measures.” Putin and his associates demonstrated the skills of confrontation without resorting to war. They used the fact that the US is engaged in wars in Afghanistan and the middle East, lost vigilance.
It is not clear that the new administration in Washington is going to do with Russian revanchism. Obviously there are differences in views between the President and the members of his party in Congress. In addition, there is evidence that suggests that the gap between Donald trump and appointed people to key positions in the administration also will continue to grow. Sending soldiers from the U.S. and other countries in Poland, Norway, the Baltic States and other countries, alarmed by Russia’s aggression, symbolically points to the benevolence of West and its allies.
“But resistance to the Russian influence, which is distributed through economic pressure, corruption, seizure of foreign territories, requires something more than the deployment of battalions of NATO. We need radical changes in the political strategy of the EU and the USA”, – stated in the article.
According to Jennings, there are several possible scenarios. The EU could not cope with aggressive behaviour due to internal misunderstandings caused by the influx of refugees, economic problems and lack of agreement on how to proceed with relations with Russia. And the United States at this time can also focus on your own problems. This will give Moscow space to increase their influence and further aggressive behavior.
A more optimistic scenario would be the Union of the political will of the United States and Europe to confront or at least to contain Russian revanchism. “This does not mean to drive Russia into a corner, to draw “red lines” or to resume the Cold war. This means to develop an Arsenal of tools to solve more complex challenges,” the article says.
Trump as the businessman is convinced that he will be able to make a deal with Putin. This may be so. Europeans are afraid that such a transaction would untie the hands of Putin in the countries that he believes the Russian “sphere of influence”. The problem approach to diplomacy as a business is that it is based on exchange, while alliances and relationships require constant attention and strengthening. Agreements with foreign governments is not buying and selling. They require constant vigilance, influence mechanisms and penalties for breach of agreements. And this, in turn, requires strength and determination. Still the Western allies and Russia can achieve through dialogue and compromise more constructive relationship, when Moscow will become less paranoid, less aggressive force that respects the sovereignty of its independent post-Soviet neighbors.
This change of approach seems possible in the very distant future. And if Europe and the United States will remain an unorganized and vulnerable, it is unlikely to achieve.
Recall that the Washington Post wrote that the team of President of the United States Donald trump is preparing a “major deal” with Russian President Vladimir Putin can make concessions on Ukraine.
However, the Kremlin denied this information.
