Sometimes talking about the fact that the return of Ukraine in the Crimea is impossible because the depth of the drift of the Peninsula from the mainland is large and every year will only grow. But the authors of these speeches do not understand. The first thing you have to speak Ukrainian policy, who will arrive in the Ukrainian Crimea, it is — “we give you products that will bring it.”
Because the only window of opportunity for the return of the Ukrainian flag in the territory of the Peninsula will come when peace and stability will be the main deficit in Russia.
By itself, the annexation of the Crimea, not only was the prelude to the war in the Donbass and not only a blow to the Ukrainian economy — it became a factor that United the Kiev-controlled territory, more homogeneous, excluded from participation in the elections a certain number of people with Pro-Soviet views, saved Ukraine from the need to maintain a sterile debate about language, history, and vector integration. The annexation of Crimea has become a mobilization factor for the mainland regions. After this, the country began to form new social contracts. In the spring of 2014, Ukraine began to rapidly negotiate about myself, about the model of social coexistence on the distribution of roles within the state, the role of the state, and what institutions are necessary to him, and which are not. This dialogue is difficult and painful, but before he had simply been blocked.
In the background the past two decades, it looks like a real historical chance, realizing that Ukraine will become a state able “to digest” even those regions that had long been under the influence of Russian propaganda. And if Ukraine won’t lose him, Kyiv will be able to determine the conditions under which there will be a return of lost in 2014 territories.
In addition — and these areas will be very different from what they were in the pre-2013 year.
The same Donetsk and Lugansk will not be industrial centers. Those who left is unlikely to return. We are accustomed to call their “Donetsk” and “Luhansk”, but we must be honest: this is a new Kiev, Lvov, Odessa and Kharkov. Now according to statistics, 40% of these people do not intend to go home even if the return of the Donbass. And every month this percentage will only grow. Because children, work, social connections and other “grass roots”.
The industrial potential of the region cut down on scrap metal, exported to Russia, or simply destroyed by war. And here, too, we must be honest: by itself, Kiev would never have dared to claim the laurels Margaret Thatcher, who found the courage to close unprofitable British mine in the mid 80-ies. If not for the war — the Soviet industrial monster would have continued to live in all its inefficient and monumental splendor. Over the Kiev all the dirty work was done by Moscow, which destroyed some companies and shipped others.
The industry “ran out”, a significant part of the population left. Those who were called “Donetsk elites” — marginalized, as well as their agenda. The fate of the region will depend only and exclusively from Kiev. And the best that can make the capital to come up with a strategy with the territories that were the battlefield. So then this strategy to impose on the region.
And exactly the same policy have to cook and in the Crimea.
And with the Crimea, at the same time, there will be easier and harder. Easier — thanks to the fact that on the Peninsula no bloodshed. The one that sacralize any confrontation. Do not stand in sideboards hundreds of pictures with black corners, do not grow fatherless, whose parents succumbed to the calls to capitalize on the war. And it will be more difficult due to the fact that Russia President Vladimir Putin will hold Crimea until the last. Any discussion about the fate of the Peninsula will be possible only after the change of the current architecture of power in Russia. This means very, very much.
For example the fact that Russia’s economy in collapse that the crisis is on the verge of out of control that for the sake of our present and future elite ready to go to any compromises. Or that these elites and does no longer control the outskirts of their own country — simply because in all other scenarios the change of the architecture of power in Russia is unlikely to happen.
In this situation, the Crimea will be disoriented — as was disoriented Donbass, who dreamed of the USSR, and received instead of Somalia. And in this moment, we will see the distinction between nuclear supporters Russia and those who just craves stability and predictability.
And because the stability and predictability will be the first that promise the first Ukrainian politician, who will arrive in the Crimea after the change of flags. If this phrase not be actual, to come to the Peninsula Ukrainian politics simply will not succeed.