George W. Bush looked Vladimir Putin in the eye and saw his soul. He made a mistake. Barack Obama attempted to “reset” relations with Russia, but by the end of his presidency, Russia annexed Crimea sparked a conflict in another part of the Ukraine and filled the power vacuum that Obama left in Syria. Donald trump, it seems, wants to go much further and create an entirely new strategic Alliance with Russia. Can he succeed, or will he become the third American President in a row who tricked Putin?
Details of the reorganization, planned by trump, remains vague and changeable. This is partly due to differences in its immediate environment. Even at the time when its permanent representative to the UN demanded a “clear and strong condemnation… of Russia’s aggressive actions” in Ukraine, men friendship of President Vladimir Putin, still warm. When, during an interview this week Fox News reporter told Trump that Putin is a “killer”, he replied: “There are a lot of killers…. Do you think our country is so innocent?”.
For the American President to declare that his country as bloodthirsty as the case is unprecedented and unacceptable, these words were a gift to the propagandists in Moscow. The fact that Mr. trump believes that Vladimir Putin has a lot to offer America, means that he has misjudged not only the power and interests of Russia, but also the meaning of what America might have to give in return.
Where art converges to make deals with the art of the steal
Judging by the discussions around Mr trump (see Briefing), the scenario for Russia looks like this: America will join forces with Putin to destroy “radical Islamic terror” — and, in particular, ISIS or “Islamic state” (organization banned in Russia — approx. ed.). While Russia could go on non-cooperation with Iran, a longtime enemy of America in the middle East and a threat to its allies, including Bahrain and Saudi Arabia. In Europe, Russia would cease to fan the conflict in Ukraine, have agreed not to pester the countries-members of NATO on its borders and, perhaps, would start talks on nuclear arms control. In the long term, closer ties with Russia could also help to curb the expansion of China. Stephen Bannon (Stephen Bannon), adviser to trump, the most worrisome, said last year that he had “no doubt” that “we will fight in the South China sea, five or ten years”. If so, then America needs allies, and Russia is a nuclear power, with China a border of 4,200 kilometers. And what is there not to like?
Yes, almost all. The actions of Russian hackers and has helped Donald trump in the election, but that doesn’t mean that it can trust Putin. The interests of the Kremlin and America differ from one another as heaven from earth.
For example, in Syria Putin speaks loudly about the fight against terrorists, but he has not taken this any real effort. The price that it will require cooperation with America can be guarantee permanent Russian military presence in the middle East and supporting Bashar al-Assad, whose regime, as it turned out this week, hung thousands of Syrians by the verdict of the court, which met two to three minutes. And it doesn’t mean anything good for Syria, nor for regional stability, nor for America. Even if Vladimir Putin and Donald trump would have a common goal (and they don’t have it), and the Americans would not mind becoming complicit in the atrocities of Russia (as they should be against), American and Russian troops would not be able to consistently fight side by side. Their systems do not interact. To ensure that their interaction would have to share military secrets that the Pentagon spends a lot of money. In addition, the Russian air force is not very much and added combat power of the air forces of the coalition, which already strikes at ISIS. This could make the army, but it is highly unlikely that Putin will take part.
In addition, Russia is not going to conflict with Iran. Iranian troops complement of Russian air power. Iran is a promising market for Russian exports. And, above all, these two countries are neighbors, who strongly demonstrate that interact to control the middle East, and do not want to quarrel over it.
The view that Russia is a good ally against China is even less realistic. Russia is much weaker than China — its economy and population have shrunk and she has less army. Vladimir Putin has neither the power nor the desire to pick a fight with Beijing. On the contrary, he values trade relations with China, is afraid of his military power and has much in common with Chinese leaders — at least, as well seeks to intimidate its neighbors and rejected Western sermons on democracy and human rights. Even if the escalation of confrontation with China would be for America step rational (which is not), Putin would not have helped here absolutely nothing.
However, the greatest danger posed by erroneous assessment of trump linked with Europe. Here the list of Putin’s desires consists of three parts: first, that he will not get until you start acting better (for example, removal of Western sanctions). Secondly, that he would not get under any circumstances (for example, the recognition of the annexation of the Ukrainian territory). And thirdly — something that would violate a rule-based world order (for example, the tacit consent of the United States with a weakening of NATO).
Vladimir Putin would be happy if Donald trump gave him greater freedom of action in Russia’s “near abroad” — for example, curtailed the deployment of the American missile defense system in Europe and would stop the process of expansion of NATO to join the Alliance of Montenegro, which is scheduled for this year. Trump doesn’t seem to understand how the giant would these concessions. He gives conflicting signals regarding the role of the Alliance last month, calling it “obsolete”, and this week promising him support. Some of his advisers don’t seem to care if the EU will collapse; as Vladimir Putin, they welcome leaders like marine Le Pen, who is just and necessary. Stephen Bannon, recognizing that Russia is a kleptocracy, says Putin as a representative of the global protest movement nationalists and traditionalists against the liberal elite — and thus a real ally of Donald trump.
Enforcer cheat
The desire to conclude a “Grand bargain” with Vladimir Putin is a delusional fantasy. No matter what a great negotiator trump may be, the good deals will not work here. Moreover, nobody considers the danger that the touchy trump, when he will turn the finger around, and in the end he spoil relations with Vladimir Putin, bringing the case to a dangerous and destabilizing quarrel.
Instead of having to enter into a Grand bargain or a quarrel, it would be better to start small and to work on the normalization of American-Russian relations. It may be cooperation on arms control and the prevention of accidental conflicts between the Russian and American troops. Congressional Republicans and more sensible advisers trump — for example, his Secretary of state and the Secretary of defense should try to convince the President. Otherwise, the situation will be really difficult.
