As a result of “accidental” blow of Russia at the place of deployment of the Turkish military during an air RAID on the terrorist organization ISIS (banned in Russia — approx. ed.) in Syria, three of our soldiers were killed, 11 were wounded.
This event occurred on the day when Russia declared that doesn’t consider a terrorist organization Kurdistan workers ‘ party (PKK) Party “Democratic Union” (PYD) a terrorist, and in those hours when the head of the CIA visited Turkey. In other words, the moment meaningful. In light of the events of recent weeks, it would be useful to summarize the development of relations between Ankara and Moscow in the following paragraphs.
1) Although Russia says “accident” at the highest level expressed its regret that this event cannot be ignored. How is a mistake to assume that Russia does not require an answer for destroyed in 2015 the aircraft or killed in 2016 Ambassador, is just as wrong to think that this blow was an accident. Those who think so, explain the “accident” and attack the United States on the ship “Muavenet” many years ago, and the death of ESREF Bitlis (Eşref Bitlis, the Turkish General, critical and tuned in relation to USA; died in a plane crash in 1993 — approx. TRANS.). To expect from officials in Russia, something similar to those turns 180 degrees, which after the coup attempt on 15 July 2016 a terrorist organization FETÖ of Fethullah Gulen (Fethullah Gülen) made our statesmen (although after the destruction of the Russian plane they competed with each other to take credit for this merit), is unrealistic. To put that in the ranks of the Russian air force is pilot-gulenist or that the Turkish military killed traitors in the Russian army that want to harm Turkish-Russian relations, is ridiculous.
2) the Fact that shortly after British and German heads of government, Turkey was visited by the head of the CIA, known for his anti-Turkish statements while working in the House of representatives, may have caused the following concerns: “the Turkish Authorities returned to the West, NATO factory settings”. If Russia thinks so, it is easy to justify and argue. Because Turkey’s dependence on the West is systemic. The US and NATO have influence in political, economic, military, bureaucratic, academic, and cultural institutions of Turkey.
3) the Imperialist centers put before Turkey the new requirements. In particular, they want Turkey took greater responsibility in the fight against ISIS in Syria, has resumed the process of “democratic initiatives”, refused Cyprus, has taken a tougher stance against Iran, supporting US in terms of tension in their relations with Iran, sold the last state-owned assets. With this purpose was created the national welfare Fund. The institutions that will come under the management of the Fund, or to be sold on the cheap, or will serve as collateral to obtain new loans from Western creditors.
Turkey seems ready to make concessions
4) what about the visit of the head of the CIA in Ankara, Turkey announced almost with a fanfare and announced that the presidents Erdogan and trump had a warm and productive phone conversation for 45 minutes, showed how the Turkish administration’s strong Atlanticist policy. Turkey, rejoicing that “the head of the CIA makes his first foreign visit to us,” has shown its willingness at the outset to make concessions to the United States. This has weakened its position at the negotiating table. And during the telephone conversation the leaders of Turkey are unable to obtain what they wanted, questions about the support that the United States put the terrorist organization PKK — PYD, and extradition of the leader FETÖ.
5) the Winner at a meeting in Astana on 23 January was Russia. Moreover, Russia, on the one hand, prepared the text of the Constitution for Syria, on the other — took into consideration the text of the Constitution, written by the terrorist organization PKK — PYD. It is obvious that Russia will also pursue a moderate policy towards the terrorist organization PKK — PYD, which opened an office in Moscow. And try to have a greater impact on her. So, she’s like a cornered Turkey and counterbalance the US influence on this terrorist organization and will carry out his plan “B”, taking into account that to protect the territorial integrity of Syria is becoming increasingly difficult. Among the alternatives — Federation. The terrorist organization PKK — PYD will have an advantage.
6) Russia, as demonstrated by the operation “Shield of the Euphrates”, allowed Turkey to go on the battlefield in Syria to sit down at the negotiating table. It created a furor at the meeting in Astana that will bring together regime and opposition structures in Syria. The place and time chosen Russia. Despite the serious objections of Iran, along with Turkey is invited to meet US. After Astana and she was invited to Moscow as participating and not participating in this meeting representatives of the Syrian opposition. Tried to find their mood. This also caused the dissatisfaction of Iran. In addition, Iran has opposed the invitation of Saudi Arabia for future talks on Syria.
Russia took the initiative in their own hands
7) Russia, within the framework of international law and sending troops to Syria at the invitation of the Syrian regime, took the initiative in their own hands at the front and in diplomatic negotiations. Expect US to silently accept it and gentleman will leave the battlefield and the negotiating table is not necessary. So they are, on the one hand, will cooperate with Russia in fight against terrorism of the ISIS, on the other — will try to undermine the superiority of Russia in the Syrian issue.
8) the Situation in the region, the objective conditions of Turkey and Russia create the need to strengthen relations between the two countries. But amid the positive developments of the past few months and the wave of optimism we should not forget about precautions. It is useful to recall the words of Ismet Pasha (Ismet Inönü, the second President of Turkey, the successor of Mustafa Ataturk — approx. TRANS.): “to deal with a major power — it’s like going to bed with a bear.” A symbol of Russia in international diplomacy — “the bear”.
9) Recall that before the airplane crisis 2015 Russia, which is due to the Ukrainian-Crimean crisis has been subjected to sanctions by the US and the EU, have suffered due to the fall in oil prices was foreign trade partner of Turkey at number two, behind Germany and ahead of China. After the aircraft of the crisis saw a sharp decline. In the first half of 2016, the drop was 60%. After the crisis, Russia has fallen to third place in the list of trading partners of Turkey. Turkey’s dependence on Russian natural gas — 55%. The first nuclear power plant in Akkuyu (Mersin) Russia is building. In 2023 it will be put into operation. To regress in the relations Russia has sent into our country of four million tourists a year. Russia, which is a major, major market for Turkish producers of agricultural products, important from the point of view of the Turkish construction sector.
10) the Second nuclear power plant in Sinop will be built by Japan. One of the countries with which the Turkish leadership will negotiate about the construction of the third NPP, Russia. Turkey, which as at the end of 2016, had an installed capacity of 80 thousand megawatts in the energy industry, forced to diversify both energy sources and supplier countries. The level of dependence on imports of oil and natural gas from outside is greater than 95%. Currently, 76 of the 81 Il (administrative unit in Turkey — approx. TRANS.) consume natural gas. It is expected that in 2018, natural gas will arrive in five of our cities.
In short, political stability is necessary to strengthen social solidarity, and national unity; economic stability — to give priority to planning, protecting public property, the economy in the interests of the people and the state; and for the diplomatic stability — to acquire a foreign policy of Ataturk.