The paradox of Russia: enemies in the world is getting smaller, but inside the country is increasingly weakening

The coming to power of trump’s complicated anti-American rhetoric of Vladimir Putin: it blocked the current conveyor of propaganda, and can also accelerate the political crisis, signs of which in Russia is becoming more. The Kremlin is counting on to an external enemy to distract the population from domestic problems, already, probably, have reserved for themselves a new “internal” enemy. And at the moment of collision Putin may be even not at the helm.

“A new challenge will be thrown inside the country,” says Espresso Valery Solovey, an analyst, which listens to the Moscow intelligentsia. “Looming crisis, which is the loss of the propaganda of its effectiveness, which may result in political protests.” Lecturer, MGIMO University of the Ministry of foreign Affairs, which trains Russian diplomats, the Nightingale has access to privileged sources in the state. He is known for his ability to accurately predict government appointments before they will be announced. He believes that in the near future, the ruling Russian elite will have to do more than international politics and the situation in the country, which could radically change. The uncertainty that Putin will nominate his candidacy in the elections of 2018, “connected with the state of his health,” says Nightingale.

“I just stopped to understand the news,” says Tatiana, a Bank employee of 42 years. In her small living room in apartment in Novogireevo on the outskirts of Moscow on the 80-inch TV screen showing news TV channel Russia-1. 25 minutes of news about foreign policy. A leading journalist praises of trump, noting with pleasure that during his inaugural speech he never uttered the words “democracy” and made no mention of NATO and Europe. “How is it, till yesterday the Americans were around to blame, and now suddenly become good?”, — ironically Tatiana. She complains that “as usual, nobody is talking about what really interests people.”

In Russia, the inauguration of the new U.S. President was celebrated in the spirit of folk fairs: the media fanfare blared about “tramp-Burger” with a yellow tuft (cheese), showed posters in shop Windows, giant screens in the café. Dominated by irony. The phrase “trump our” became a meme in recent weeks, stamped on the principle slogan of three years ago “Krymnash”.

“The Russians are tired of the fact that no one complains” — he wrote in 2014 the writer is a radical Eduard Limonov. Maybe it worked that feel. However, mainly, there was a desire to get rid of years of propaganda about the enemies of Washington. In the end, no one could bet on what trump will be as sympathetic to Russia, as he speaks about it and how this is reported on TV. The government and the media already, many have long ceased to believe. And turned inside out reports on the March in America conclusively discredited. Now just laugh at them.

Need an enemy

“People are tired of news about the war in Syria, about the immigration crisis in Europe, about the danger of NATO and the United States,” explains Nightingale. “The results of sociological studies show that the changed position. The Russians are interested in the growth of unemployment, decline in purchasing power, the disintegration of the social security system. The government and the media about all this not talking, because there is absolutely nothing to promote. But the rhetoric about the external enemy now is not working.” The Professor emphasizes that a growing number of people who receive information via social media and not on television. According to the independent research organization Levada center, 60% of Russians use social networks. Not only in big cities (49%), but (and this is a new phenomenon) and in small towns (29%).

Anti-American propaganda reached its peak during the annexation of the Crimea, and later in achieving military success in the middle East. But the Kremlin uses for more than ten years, ever since passed in Georgia, Ukraine, Kyrgyzstan “color revolutions” committed with the permission, if not with direct assistance from the America of George W. Bush, created in the medieval fortress of Moscow the atmosphere of the siege. In 2005, the concern that the United States can support the “color revolution” in Russia, turned into a panic in the President’s entourage. Disappeared any mention of integration with the West, of friendship with Europe and common values. Intensified control of the media, the new laws ensured the control over election candidates and Parliament had issued a decree simplifying the procedure of the crackdown. Putin the Magnificent was Putin the Terrible.


The presence of an external enemy functionally correspond to the ideological spirit that the President, or rather the so-called elite in his entourage, gave the Russian political opportunism: the glorification of the Eurasian identity in a world dominated by Western models and traditions. Putin leads in this regard, the concept of “passionarity”, which is the ability to suffer, to sacrifice and to endure, which is defined as an integral feature of the Russian soul. The term was coined in one of the camps of the Soviet Gulag mysterious theorist of ethno-genetic. It’s the same idea that allowed the kings and Orthodox priests for 900 years to control Russia.

However, it seems that the victims, enemies, and Russian propaganda today is quite enough. 45% of the Russian population is dissatisfied with the overall state of the country, as shown by the results of the research of FOM, government Institute for social research. More than half of respondents complain about the state of health, the half — on state of the economy, 39-40% say the disadvantages of social security and school systems. People no longer make plans: only 6% of respondents said that they plan for the future in family life and at work for ten years. 48% thinks more than one year. 24% live for today. 57% is counting solely on their own resources to improve their financial situation. From the government of the people almost don’t expect anything.

The signals of the crisis

The whole “constellation of facts” points to a forthcoming political crisis, which “can begin this year and continue throughout 2019,” — said the Nightingale. According to his analysis of events, loss of efficacy of anti-American slogans, lower wages and lack of prospects define critical thinking most of the population. According to the Professor, increasing the level of aggression and irritation in connection with the spread of corruption, sclerosis of the bureaucracy and “selective repression” of power, providing a reasonable freedom of opposition when it does not interfere with, but behind the scenes the method of an iron fist when she feels the danger of losing control over the situation.

Other signals of the crisis, according to Nightingale, the infidelity of the local authorities and internal conflicts. In the entourage of Putin really unfolding war for the seizure of resources remaining after two years of recession. The battleground is the privatization in the oil sector. Imagine the “fight of bulldogs under the carpet”, as determined by the internal squabbles of the Soviet Kremlin Winston Churchill. Minister Alexei Ulyukayev it cost him positions. He was arrested on amazing charges: for a bribe that he was given for approval of the decision, in fact, already accepted for execution.

“In reality, power in Russia is very weak”, — said the Nightingale. Internal crisis restraining the power of elites may cause destructive consequences of a possible mass protests: “it starts with protests in the industrial centers,” — said the Professor. “Then they can apply to the city, people will start to react instinctively. A fundamental role here will play the social network”.


Why Putin says that will again put forward his candidacy?

Among the General causes of the political crisis Nightingale mentions some is not called the disease of Putin has not yet declared that he will nominate his candidacy in 2018. “This uncertainty connected with his health,” — says the Professor. “I got another confirmation of this, including recently.” In the coming months it will become clear, about what there is a speech. Exactly the only established fact is that CDB, hospital exclusively for senior patients, located in a birch grove in the area Kuntsevo two steps away from the Moscow residence of Vladimir Putin, will get a new building for the medical needs of the President and other persons (the Prime Minister, defense Minister and chief of the General staff of the armed forces). Reuters received testifying to the same documents.

If Putin will not nominate his candidacy, the candidate from the Kremlin will almost certainly become Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, who from 2008 to 2012 has taken the baton as President. “Putin is 100% trust him,” explains Nightingale. In addition, his intention to run for President, said Alexei Navalny, a lawyer, a fighter against corruption and a charismatic opposition leader. At the September 2013 elections in the struggle for a post of the mayor of Moscow Navalny received 27% of votes (and complained about the fraud).

As reported by the consultants that participated in government meetings on the strategy in the presidential election first, the Kremlin reacted positively to the candidacy of Navalny: he would make the race “more democratic” and interesting. Now, however, sounds a different point of view. “They fear it, and rightly so,” — said the Nightingale. “If Navalny will establish an effective communication platform, and of course he can do it, today would have voted for him throughout Russia, not just Moscow. Moreover, through the year.” Conclusion: “They will not allow him to stand as a candidate”. In Russia, the candidates must approve the government.

Yandex, the local equivalent of Google, has banned Bulk to raise funds for the campaign through its search engine. Likely candidate now accused of misappropriation of property. Various organizations involved in the protection of human rights, consider the process “political” and “unfair”. In early February the first hearing was held. Courts in Russia cannot be considered independent. How will this process take place, it will be possible to understand whether the people in the Kremlin are afraid of the Bulk and loss of power.