Avdiivka node in the recent days has become a choice of many geopolitical intricacies. Yes, it is geopolitical. In Avdeevka today many issues are solved the future of relations between Washington and Moscow, Washington and Kiev, Brussels and Moscow. This small town became a bridgehead for the protection of European security. The tragedy that unfolded there could be a turning stage the entire campaign the last three years. Sort of “Kursk” in an aggressive hybrid war against Ukraine. However, not all so simple and obvious as it may seem at first glance.
Let’s think. What is the aggravation and escalation with many casualties it took in the Kremlin? And it is now. It is clear that Putin is not interested in military conquest of the territory. To demonstrate the power? Maybe. The question then arises: to whom? Brussels? Washington? It is likely. But, a show of force can not end in removing or easing of sanctions, and especially does not help Trump make certain steps of rapprochement. It’s obvious.
To Avdeevka, the new us administration did not mention Russia in connection with the conflict in the Donbass, and especially “forget” about Crimea. And the message from Washington to Moscow was sent convincing enough. And only after a few days, the White house began to do very hard in fact and form of statement of designation of the role of Russia in the events in Donbass. And do these statements first person in American politics.
The question is, what did Putin win? It may, of course, he in his characteristic manner, once again feel the strength and endurance (in his understanding) the world community, including in Europe? Quite possible, but it is futile. But to get to Europe, forgetting differences, combine their efforts and present a United political and economic front against the Kremlin, such action. And then the same Trump or Tillerson will be much more difficult to explain within the American political establishment, its willingness to establish peaceful dialogue with Moscow. And Europe to push with his hands.
It turns out that another attempt to beat their opponents can only make matters worse the owner of the Kremlin. Escalation will still have to stop, and no political dividends. Then what? The question unanswered.
Go ahead. Do you think it would be possible telephone conversation with the US President Petro Poroshenko this Saturday, had it not been the tragedy in the town? A very sharp statement by the Prime Minister of the UK Teresa may in relation to the Russian involvement in the Donbass and Crimea? And performance of the new representative of Washington in the UN security Council? I think the answers are obvious. What is happening today in the East of our country, has again attracted the attention of world leaders. Moreover, the strengthening of Russian military presence in the temporarily occupied territories gives our leadership additional arguments why Kiev is unable (unwilling) to fulfil its obligations under the Minsk agreements.
After all, the withdrawal of weapons and sustainable peace across the demarcation line — the first paragraphs of this document. And we remember how strongly in recent months, many first person of European politicians have insisted on the implementation of it Ukraine Minsk agreements in terms of making changes to the Constitution and the elections. Even Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande have repeatedly made similar signals. And from overseas sounded similar calls from the mouths of many influential politicians. So, like the old proverb: “it would not be happy, so in disguise”… the Main thing is to use correctly the opportunity.
But back to the plant. On the one hand, in contrast to the time of debaltseve and Ilovaisk, our armed forces were better prepared, and our government, including regional, learned how to adequately and timely respond. I mean concerted action by the MOE, the Prime Minister Groysman and Governor Zhebrivskyi. On the other hand, our intelligence agencies failed again to forestall and prevent possible SUCH a development. Sometimes do not understand, and do we have intelligence? This also applies to SBU and MO. But it would be possible to avoid so many casualties and such destruction.
Next. Once again surprised by the complete indifference, the apathy and inaction of our Parliament. In the country there are military operations and attacks on civilians, and the Supreme legislative body of the state did not show. Even an emergency collect and an extraordinary session time has not been able to convene. And speaker Parubiy did anyone actually heard these days? A note of protest to the Russian Embassy? Or The Duma?
In General, the final degradation lie on the face. I want to believe that this Parliament came up. Most importantly — this should be acknowledged by parliamentarians, if they consider themselves as responsible and Patriotic citizens of Ukraine…
And another important aspect is the humanitarian. All these “political blockade” before a fall. You need to make the state decision and to answer the main question: Ukraine needs the Donbas, with all its inhabitants, destruction and problem or not. And if necessary, we have to fight for it. In this sense, Avdeevka has a very important strategic significance. But because the fighting there now are NOT of local importance.