The aggravation of the situation under the plant has two reasons — strategic and tactical. Strategically, the militants have increased the number of attacks across the demarcation line. And the plant got more than others, because it is here that the so-called DNR most vulnerable spot.
The output of Ukrainian troops on the territory of the industrial zone of the Town has allowed our troops to take control of a strategic transport artery — the main road that connects Donetsk and Gorlovka. Its importance cannot be overemphasized. The biggest militant groups are concentrated in these two cities.
From Gorlovka militants constantly shelled the Russian Federation can at any time go on the offensive in Bakhmut (Artemovsk former). The goal is very important — there is not only a unique enterprise that will fill the pockets of warlords and large armories.
In Donetsk, the militants are also ready to strike at Marinka and Krasnogorovka, and, if successful, to develop the offensive to Kurakhovo. There are large thermal power plants and this reason is more than enough. But plans to attack is not only the militants.
The armed forces of Ukraine, too, can at any time go to the liberated territories and the release of Gorlovka and Donetsk. While our side is looking for the possibility of a peaceful diplomatic settlement, but at some point the patience ran out.
In any scenario, whether it is the militants or the APU, the command of the so-called armed forces of the DNI will face the main problem — transfer of reserves from Gorlovka to Donetsk or Vice versa. Depends on the point of aggravation. It is in these cities are the most large forces of the militants, which they call an army corps.
The reserves need to transfer as quickly as possible. The speed here is the key argument. If you’re late, you do not come. On a good track (and there are two lanes in each direction) from Donetsk to Gorlovka you can drive for 20 — 30 minutes. Alternative road (broken in ancient times, two lanes) leads through the town, the Yasinovka and will take no less than a half hour.
In the case of a rapid attack special forces of this pause can be a decisive factor. And what is the Ukrainian special forces fighters know very well. So to push the APU from the road for fighters a matter of principle. This is a major problem in their defense. All attempts to the last time they ended the same way bad — in the best case, they received a powerful response, and at worst lost a piece of territory.
The strategic reason is no longer a secret. On the eve of another round of negotiations in Minsk Russia increases pressure. To twist Ukraine’s hands and force him to return the Donbass, the Kremlin script still did not work.
Either through direct persuasion or through pressure from the European partners. The Ukrainian authorities understand that Russia with the help of the Special status of Donbass and Amnesty militants want to lay a mine under the very existence of Ukraine.
Of the available arguments in the Kremlin only increase in attacks, worsening conflict and blackmail our prisoners who persistently refuse to return. This creates additional tension within the country and in Russia believe that sooner or later it will reach a critical point.
Finally, a bit of conspiracy theory. The opposition bloc split. According to rumors, the Kremlin insists on the transfer of 30% of the “controlling interest” shares political power of Viktor Medvedchuk. Akhmetov and his group are strongly against — to them these games in “Russian world” are fed up, and too costly for business.
And here came the shells in Avdiivka coke, whose value for the holding “Metinvest” and the entire Ukrainian steel industry cannot be overstated. Compulsion to friendship and blackmail — traditional methods for the Kremlin.
