No tranches of the International monetary Fund (IMF), Ukraine’s foreign exchange reserves will begin to melt, and the devaluation of the hryvnia will increase. This opinion was expressed by General Director of investment company Dragon Capital Tomas Fiala, in an interview with the “Economic truth”.
“If you look at the schedule of repayment of external debt, thanks to the restructuring of private debt in 2016 was the easy. With each subsequent year the cost of debt repayment will grow. Election year 2019 will be the peak in this regard”, – said the head of Dragon Capital.
According to Fiala, during these three years (2017-2019), the national Bank, Ministry of Finance, state-owned banks and “Ukrzaliznytsya” must pay $ 14 billion on foreign debts, with interest.
“Foreign exchange reserves have now 15.5 billion dollars. Of these 15.5 billion net reserve of — $ 4 billion, the rest is IMF money,” said Fiala. According to him, last year the national debt has increased to 72 billion dollars for the nationalization of PrivatBank.
Fiala stressed that without the IMF tranche to Ukraine will not be able to pay off the national debt. “We can’t. Even before the presidential election will not be able to reach. Without trenching reserves will begin to melt. Markets and population will be the trend to “warm up” and begin the spiral that we had in January and February 2015, when the rate was impossible to stop. Therefore, the President and the government, if they want to be re-elected must work with the IMF to increase the cushion of reserves before 2019 year”, – concluded the expert.
We will remind, earlier the head of the analytical Department of Concorde Capital Oleksandr Parashchiy already assumed that in 2019, Ukraine faces default.
Ukraine and the IMF in March 2015 signed a Memorandum of economic and financial policies which the country should undertake in the framework of the EFF.
Just program worked for Ukraine of about $ 17 billion of which have already been allocated 7,7 billion dollars. So, in September 2016 after a delay of a year, the IMF has approved granting Ukraine the third tranche in the amount of one billion dollars.
The Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine expects that the size of the fourth tranche of the IMF loan under the program of expanded financing will amount to 1 billion U.S. dollars.
The government has reported that one of the biggest obstacles to receiving the next loan tranche from the IMF is the Pension Fund deficit. However, according to Vice-Prime Minister Pavlo Rozenko, the question of raising the retirement age in Ukraine with the IMF is not discussed.