In 2019 Ukraine will have to pay about six billion dollars of external borrowing, says the head of analytical Department of Concorde Capital Oleksandr Parashchiy. If by this time economic growth will not increase significantly, the country faces default.
“The IMF forecasts economic growth of Ukraine (10% of GDP per year – ed.) until it looks too optimistic – especially in terms of GDP growth in dollar terms. Most likely, this increase of the IMF lays the effect of reforms”, – said Oleksandr Parashchiy.
If the IMF forecasts come true, the expert believes that Ukraine will face two difficult years – 2019-2020. During this period, the cooperation program will end, and the need of payments on external debts will grow.
“We got two and a half years to carry out reforms. Not just to tick the box, and really reform the economy. If we do not reform, the very difficult will be 2019. In principle, we will be able to repay these debts, but we need the confidence of creditors, investors, money that we borrow, we will return. More importantly – the level of debt in relation to GDP. Now it has reached about 80% if the economy will grow at the same rate as now, in 2019 it will mean a default, “–said the expert.
By the way, the sustainability of public debt is 70% of GDP, while Concorde Capital predict that the level of debt in Ukraine in 2017 will reach 81%.