Makri as a risk factor for trump

Despite the many conversations about the historical divide in the United States between the administrations of Obama and trump exist and the vector of continuity — Michel Temer and Mauricio Macri.

Both presidents are so adjusted to the US ruling circles that the new administration is simply not anything to worry about. If trump is committed to ensuring that no one dared to question American supremacy in the world, in Brazil and Argentina, he this goal is already achieved.

Macri signed the agreement on cooperation that blur the line between security and defense. José Serra (José Serra), the Minister of foreign Affairs in the government of Temer, tried to punish Venezuela and thus weakened southern common market (Mercosur). The weakening of Mercosur one of the ways to ensure the superiority of the White house that is committed to the development of bilateral relations with other countries, and not confrontation. If Latin America advocates multilateral negotiations, the US act quite in a different way.

After the restoration of democracy in Argentina, such a deep mutual understanding that has developed between Macri and the American ruling class, was only Carlos Menem, who was in power from 1989 to 1999. Partners Menem was Ronald Reagan, George H. W. Bush and bill Clinton. Men never quarrel with Washington. But there is one more important detail: he not only began to implement the principle of renunciation of state regulation of the economy and implement a “plan Brady” (the Brady Plan) for the restructuring of sovereign debt of some countries of Latin America, but Argentina turned into an instrument of global U.S. military strategy. The country participated in the war against Iraq in 1991, acted against Cuba and received the status of non-aligned NATO ally.

What happens if trump? If he can really get out of the agreement on the TRANS-Pacific partnership, it will be bad news for him and Temer. But at the same time it will be good news for the Argentines who did not get anything out of the equation, in which eight people own almost all a national treasure.

It is unclear what will be the level of protectionist measures. Not to say that they did not exist in a democracy, and how to lead a trump in this matter, it is difficult to predict. The Melanya is a typical American outfits from Ralph Lauren (Ralph Lauren), as well as the German-born designer Karl Lagerfeld (Karl Lagerfeld), living in Paris. Trump uses Chinese ties made of natural silk.

The question is how the new President intends to fulfill his promise to restore the greatness of the United States. If it will solve this problem within their country is one thing. But another thing is, if he will pursue the same aggressive course as Ronald Reagan in the period of his reign from 1981 to 1989, or the President, who later occupied the Oval office.

The appointment of Rex Tillerson (Rex Tillerson), who gave 41 years of his life in the oil company ExxonMobil, suggests that, despite all the rhetoric, the United States will not minimize its presence in the world, and the oil or belligerent diplomacy is quite active.

The question is how active will the US military action abroad, the tramp, beyond the discussions in the United States. If we talk about Argentina, here the danger is that if there is a question about support for the military operation, Macri could follow the example of Menem and to impose on the country the mission of a major player, which it is not. The big players, which in reality are not, end badly. They are small players and large victims. As for USA they just become collateral damage during a large-scale conflict.

Similarly, those countries that are experiencing uncertainty, not nastolko great as China and Russia are not so geographically close to the US as Mexico, it is best to use the American principle of “wait and see”, that is, to see how events will develop.

A prominent expert in the field of relations between the U.S. and Latin America, Abraham Lowenthal (Lowenthal Abraham) wrote on December 30 in the journal The American Interest that the cold war is over, and it’s obvious. In this case, in his opinion, trump may realize that “to return to the interventionist policy there is no need to avoid causing regional antipathy to the United States.” , Lowenthal emphasizes that Latin America is the only region of the world where international terrorism is in fact missing. In addition, any terrorist attack against American facilities or citizens had as a starting point to Latin America. In this light, there seemed to be no return to the anti-Cuban policy pursued up to December 2014, when Havana and Washington restored diplomatic relations.

If, as Lowenthal writes, trump is so short-sighted to repeat adventures like landing in the Bay of Pigs or the invasion of Iraq, he could bring down the peace process in Colombia or to increase pressure on Venezuela.

The increase in rates of the Federal reserve system, serving as the Central Bank of the United States, would prejudice the government, which has a large debt, such as Argentina. But under this scenario, Argentina can only change their own financial policy. The decision about who will cover the budget of the United States, will trump, not Greece. In this ill-conceived decision to participate in military operations will harm Argentina. It remains only to hope that trump will not ask, and Macri will not go for it.