Will the civil war, the cold war?

Assuming the post of President of the United States on Friday, Donald trump made a fiery speech, severely directed against the Washington establishment.

Simply put, against the ruling class and those who it serves high — ranking officials, politicians, senators and members of the house of representatives, some of whom have decades to sit in the U.S. Congress.

Against political analysts working in the Washington brain many tanks, foundations and institutes that supply all branches of government reports and memoranda, analysis and forecasts of possible changes in the political and economic situation in the country and the world, with recommendations concerning external and internal policy of the United States.

Against all kinds of lobbyists, political consultants, political strategists and PR people, career diplomats, military professionals and members of the us intelligence community.

Against all this community of successful people who radiate moderation, respectability, cynical pragmatism, strictly observing the dress code, know when to appear in public in a suit and tie, and when — in a simple jeans, shirt and baseball cap.

Against people who habitually observe transcendent political correctness in expressions that use in their speeches are so rounded, ambiguous language that the common man not in possession of Washington Argo, sometimes absolutely nothing is not possible to understand.

Ordinary Americans who lost so much in difficult times that followed after the economic collapse in September 2008, and never regained its former prosperity under Obama, that whatever he said the departed President about their achievements, feel coming from these people the smell of undeserved prosperity, the smell of big money, and for many it is anger, and even hatred.

Especially in people who do not belong to an educated, advanced, modern society, people are not afraid of the winds of the global information civilization of the XXI century. And this is almost half of America.

Trump has achieved victory in the elections, betting on this half of the country, its antielitnye mood. And continues the same line of bending.

“I take away power from Washington and give it to America” — with pathos has declared trump in his inaugural speech.

Will continue to be interesting — is he serious? Or inertia continues to live in the paradigm of pre-election rhetoric?

The President of the United States, perhaps indeed the most powerful man on the planet. But not the Emperor and autocrat of all the Americas. And last Friday in Washington was not a coronation. Was just, according to tradition, a very solemn ceremony of inauguration of the head of one of the three branches of American government — the Executive.

There are still at least two others. Plus so often, to the point and not the place to commemorate, but no less effective system of “checks and balances”. Yes, today is the second branch of government — the legislative — is under the control of the Republican party. But do not forget that not so clear. Many influential Republicans end up opposing the nomination of trump as a candidate from their party, and some even openly supported him on the eve of a crucial vote. Many do not want it now.

In addition, the trump is a very conventional “Republican”. Note how rarely he remembers God, how little quotes the Bible often talks about traditional values, family, marriage, parenting and, conversely, what kind of pressure speaks about things that are not included in the conventional set of “traditional conservative-Republican”, for example — on hard state regulation of private business, as he promises to tax those corporations that take production to China or Mexico.

But there are also many other groups and interests. There are military, there are intelligence community — and a conciliatory speech trump the CLA in the first full day of his tenure as President, in my opinion, means that he ultimately lost the argument with the community on the question of whether US intelligence had gathered enough convincing information about the Russian cyber attacks on American computer networks to the campaign. Incidentally, a landmark event.

And then there are the regional elite, especially in such States as California or new York. In such large cities as Boston, Philadelphia, Chicago, Seattle, Los Angeles, not to mention Washington. Oh, and not all of America — new York, San Francisco and other post-industrial cities determine the present and future of America.

There is still the American media — the fourth power, and she’s mostly not on the side of trump.

There is an influential intellectual, artistic elite, and it is also not on his side. See the number of stars of American show business, refused to speak at the inauguration of the 45th President of the United States. See speech of Hollywood actors and Actresses of the first magnitude to the great rallies and marches against American women trump that took place in all the major cities of America in the first full day of his tenure as President, January 21.

Characteristically, the Pro-Kremlin media still so hard supporting trump that at times it seemed that new York billionaire nominated for U.S. President, not the Republican party, United Russia, immediately after the processions, rallies and performances of the stars were excitedly talking about “Maidana” the nature of those speeches about the “irrelevance” and “abstract” claims that the protesters are bringing to the new President.

Apparently scared for her loved ones. By the way, still do not know how to behave “favorite” after the Russian President for the first time will try to breed trump, to substitute or to deceive as he used to do with other leaders of the West. I wonder if trump will hit back at once, unceremoniously and without regard for “rules of etiquette” — so much so that, I’m afraid that Vladimir Vladimirovich will not find it.

However, relations with Russia will not be the main battlefield in the “cold civil war” in America, which was inevitable and had already begun in the first days of the presidency of Donald trump — there’s plenty of purely internal American problems.

Maybe I’m exaggerating, and the expression “cold civil war” is too strong, but still I’m sure the next four years trump on the post of the President of the United States promise to be a time of confrontation with the half of America where notorious establishment will play against the White House. And who will win in this game — the big question.

One should not underestimate the ability of the American political elite to rethink the situation in and around the country, and quickly to be reconstructed in accordance with the requirements of the time. It happened in American history more than once.

The American establishment — like a bad or weak it may seem.

This is not cowardly and curmudgeonly Russian pseudo-elite, at the time frightened pagasa tail from one hail the new master of the Kremlin.

I think you have two options: either the establishment will dominate the trump, are forced to play by the rules or eat his guts, in his time — Richard Nixon.

Anyway, I would like to draw attention to the forecast of Washington scientist-historian Allan Litchman, famous for the fact that he is almost the only correctly predicted the outcome of all presidential elections in the United States since 1984 — with the exception of 2000. However, in justification it can be said that on the election loser al Gore won a majority in the whole country. Although Hillary Clinton achieved the same result, even more impressive, in 2016 — that did not save her from defeat at the end of the balance of votes in the electoral College. But in the case of Hillary Clinton the Washington historian initially said that in the end it one way or the other will never succeed.

Now Lichtman, predicting — contrary to all pre-election polls, election wins trump, prophesies: a new President will sit out in his chair until the end of time, get in any scandal and eventually forced to leave the White House through impeachment, or to avoid it.

Lichtman says she can’t rationally justify your forecast and refers to the “inner sense”. Well, sometimes that feeling turns out to be the most error-free.