The labor market in Ukraine: results and 2016 forecasts

In December 2016, the number of those looking for a place with GASCONTROL employment increased by 16% to more than 390 thousand people. Such data of the state service of statistics. But since the beginning of registered unemployed was reduced by almost 120 thousand people, in January they were more than half a million. Experts on the labor market, and economists say the December surge in unemployment associated with the closure of the business the unemployed physical persons-entrepreneurs, which since January of this year, the law obliged all the same to pay monthly taxes in Pensfond. How to change the level of unemployment in 2017, while difficult to say, as some factors will decrease, others increase.

The WORK in 2016. As you can see from the infographic, the number of unemployed who are registered in goscentr employment has continuously decreased since January, and had started to grow only in November, accelerating sharply by December. At one place in the average year claimed 9 people, but their number has varied threefold, from 16 person/place in January to 5.5 person/place in October. Work through the exchange finds an average of one out of 14, but during the best months — April and October — one of the eight. Most of the work looking through hostsentry women, not men — 55% vs 45%, and the townspeople, not farmers — 60% against 40%.

As explained to us the expert of the labour market Yury Parhomchuk registered unemployed represent about one-fifth of all who are not working. “The calculation of state Statistics according to the methodology of the International labour organization, taking into account the total number of working-age, the number of those working and those not working, giving about 9% unemployed. As a rule, people who are more informed don’t work, and therefore lost the right to benefits, and to register them makes no sense”.

HR-expert Tatyana Pashkina explains the gradual decrease in the unemployment rate from winter to autumn for several reasons. “From April to September this departure was for seasonal work. Ukraine is the agricultural sector, construction, entertainment business (entertainment, rides on the beaches), abroad — first of all, picking berries and fruit in Poland. Since the autumn there has been a revival in business, including in the industry that gave as a reduction in the number of vacancies and the increase in the number of those who found work through the employment center. Since November, many have begun to register for help to design subsidy for payment komuslug. Well, the December surge in the number of unemployed is the result of closing non-performing businesses, especially entrepreneurs, who since January, regardless of the income necessary to pay the tax Pensfond (from 352 to 704 UAH/month.)”, explained Pashkina. The President Ukranalittsentra Alexander Ohrimenko added that was launched in December of downsizing on the news about the doubling of minzarplat January.

WHO NEED IT. According to Pushkinoj, the whole year was in demand specialty workers — builders, turners, utility workers, as well as the sellers and IT industry. And less need lawyers, economists, accountants, insurance agents. This trend will continue and in 2017, I’m sure Pashkina.

Yearly predictions: unemployment will rise

Pashkina says that there are two countervailing factors that will affect the official unemployment rate in 2017. It will reduce the emerging growth of production and the possible introduction of a visa-free regime. “One job in the industry, it’s still 2-3 places in related fields, such as logistics, warehouses, sales, — explained Pashkina. — And after the introduction of bezveza will certainly be more Ukrainians go to work abroad. Polish HR-structure, with whom we work, talking about their 4 million due to the departure of poles to work and study in Western Europe. And to grow in the first 3-4 months of unemployment can at the expense of entrepreneurs who close their businesses and will be registered in the employment centers, but what trend outweigh the, now hard to say”. Okhrimenko forecasts a sharp increase in the number of unskilled unemployed due to a double increase since January of mentorplace: “Layoffs have already begun in trade, the service sector who received on-white 1600 UAH. Many of them will go to the exchange, but will continue to work illegally at the same host.”