An unexpected statement was made by the Deputy Minister of the temporarily occupied territories and internally displaced persons Georgy Tuka: the liberation of the occupied territories of Donbass fighters and Russian troops will begin in the fall of 2017. The cause of such a scenario, Tuck said, is that Russia will stop the economic support of the occupied territories. According to him, Ukraine will be able to return the Donbass to non-military means. While Tuck said that the liberation of the occupied by Russia Crimea and Donbas must be separated from each other, as the return of annexed the Peninsula will need much more time.
Today, the media, citing a source in the SBU reported that the Russian presidential aide Vladislav Surkov had allegedly handed to the leaders of the DNI and LC, the news of the funding cuts by Russia. In addition, Surkov gave the warlords the task of “return to Ukraine”.
Whether such plans can be the Kremlin, and what are his motives, says political analyst Konstantin Borovoy.
Economic support by Russia of the occupied territories in the Donbas only applies to war, not solve social problems. And I sometimes get the feeling that quite frequently voiced in Minsk calls for Kiev to start to solve the social problems of the region on their own mean Russia’s refusal to Fund Donbas. Yes, there are some kind of Moscow’s support for the occupied territories, but not sufficiently, of course. After all, money is needed not only on pensions, but also to solve hundreds of other problems — why not now.
And it is quite clear that over time, Moscow will have to go and liberate the occupied territories. And not only the Eastern Ukraine and the Crimea, Abkhazia, and Transnistria, South Ossetia. Forecast for the development of the situation today is that the Kremlin really fear a second wave of sanctions — those that are called serious radical that remind you of the embargo. In fact, trump has already asked the question of Russia, the Kremlin, Putin: will Moscow to abide by international agreements. Apparently, there is such a soft training to a new stage of relations, when troops will be withdrawn from the territory of Ukraine, and, accordingly, removed the sanctions against Russia. Because radical sanctions, which they say the senators today, will change radically the situation in Russia itself. I would have called the “intolerable pain” for Russia. And for the Kremlin, I think, resolve the situation with the looming threat of drastic sanctions is a question of survival of the present regime. Moscow needs to prevent the imposition of these sanctions. Therefore, the Kremlin is quietly preparing to leave the Ukraine.
Speaking from the point of view of international law, the Crimea and the Donbass — is almost equivalent. If enforced international agreement, international law, and the Crimea and Donbas must be released. A cessation of aggression in the East of Ukraine in exchange for Crimea, which some say is not technically feasible. Because nobody from the international community will not be able to sign the document — the document of the recognition of the annexation. No one, except Ukraine, and Ukraine this document will not sign. So I see it as unlikely.