Putin — not Gorbachev: why won’t “the second of Reykjavik”

Donald trump in an interview with British newspaper the Times declared that is ready to offer Russian President Vladimir Putin a deal — the lifting of sanctions against Russia imposed over the annexation of Crimea in exchange for the reduction of nuclear potential. The Kremlin is limited to formal review on this issue and suggested to wait for the entry of the trump in the position of President and then to discuss such initiatives.

Interestingly, trump’s statement was made amid widespread The Sunday Times information about what trump wants to meet with Putin in Reykjavik. Supposedly this will be his first overseas trip as President of the USA and the topic of conversation should be just nuclear weapons. Official representatives of the two leaders while the information about the talks in the capital of Iceland is not confirmed. However, involuntarily, an analogy with the meeting between Mikhail Gorbachev and Ronald Reagan in 1986, which is considered an important step towards ending the Cold war between the States and the Union. However, the respondents “Apostrophe” military experts and analysts claim that the second of Reykjavik will not, because Russia will never agree to reduce the nuclear potential.

Pavel Felgenhauer, a Russian military expert:

Maybe Donald trump and wants to pretend to be the reincarnation of Ronald Reagan, because Reagan is still very popular in America, especially among Republicans. But Putin for any price you do not want to portray the reincarnation of Mikhail Gorbachev, who is very unpopular in Russia, especially among Putin’s support team. The chance that Russia and America will agree to reduce nuclear weapons to zero. It is impossible in principle.

Another thing is that Putin, of course, agree to meet with trump and may offer to trump to lift sanctions as a precondition for negotiations, including on nuclear disarmament.

Obviously, Trump to Ukraine, in General, absolutely do not care, he is ready to use it as a chip in trade with Moscow.

Or the situation is even worse — and indeed, the Kremlin has serious dirt on trump. And he’s just looking for an excuse for lifting sanctions under the pretext that then there will be negotiations about reducing nuclear weapons. And these negotiations have no result. The only result is, perhaps, the extension of the existing Treaty START-3, but in any case he will not soon end. Putin, for all time, did not sign any agreement on the limitation of armaments. START-3 for it was signed by Medvedev, who, as they say, is not sorry.

Russia has invested absolutely huge money — hundreds of billions of dollars into the rearmament program, primarily for the development of new nuclear weapons that now must be produced in large quantities. And collapse it all now, will look like a betrayal. And indeed it is not Putin’s version.

The fact that trump will negotiate with Putin, is clear. Ukraine and sanctions related to the Ukraine is nothing more than a chip to trade. But nuclear weapons — no. Obama also offered additional nuclear disarmament, and it was rejected in principle. Politely, but now such a proposal will be rejected.

Another thing is that maybe trump is doing a picture here and wants to lift sanctions in General for what is also an option. Then he will have a very poor view in America, he will have to answer that. Therefore, the situation can become quite serious in the future. But the agreement on nuclear weapons will not be 100%.

Arkady Babchenko, a Russian military journalist:

Reykjavik is an ideal it cannot be, because the first meeting between Gorbachev and Reagan was just about how to disarm. And, excuse me, Putin is exactly the opposite, it is about how to arm. Therefore, neither of which Reykjavik will not out of the question. If it will, it will be more of a conspiracy or a conversation about the conspiracy.

Putin and trump — two people, two leaders who are about the same methods and understand each other. Of course, they will meet and try to negotiate. And practice shows that the first time these people have totally love-love. And then the love quickly ends and begins fighting for them so that the pieces fly all over the world. So while this is the most likely option.

Trump has repeatedly stated that he wants a normalization of relations with Russia that doesn’t want Russia to resist and he likes Putin, he wants to find common language with him. Putin, too, is necessary. In Russia now all the euphoria from the fact that America came to power-type Pro-type a protege of the Kremlin trump. Still waiting to see what he was going to do some steps in the direction of Russia. I think about it and will be the subject of conversation: they will speak about the further development of relations between the two countries. But while this is only a conversation. While no specifics I do not expect from this meeting. And I don’t think there will be talking about the Ukrainian issue. If they realize that between them there is mutual understanding, then begin to do to share global policy. Trump, I think, ready to accept the fact that Eastern Europe (not only Ukraine, but in Eastern Europe) is more in the Russian sphere of influence and begin to withdraw from this sphere of influence. He might be more interesting to China, he was in the South China sea trying to get through. Russia in exchange can go on some concessions, for example, to hand over al-Assad. It is quite possible. I admit this development.

Anatoly Baronin, Director of the analytical group Da Vinci AG:

To date, there are no signs and no grounds to speak about the preparation of the meeting trump with Putin in Reykjavik. Information was published in the British newspaper the Sunday Times, it looks like an attempt to test public opinion or the parties to such a scenario. I believe that this may be a “stuffing” from the Kremlin in signal quality to an acceptable scenario for him, especially that Moscow used to copy Soviet policy.

Proposed by Donald a Ramp mechanism for lifting sanctions in exchange for a reduction of the nuclear Arsenal will not be able to reduce the risks of further aggression from Russia. First, there are doubts that Russia will reduce the nuclear potential. Today the strategic missile forces are a key element of the Russian system of defence and deterrence, including due to technological obsolescence.

Second, Washington will not be able to control the performance of such agreement, and the likelihood of sabotage by Russia is extremely high.

Thirdly, a partial reduction of nuclear weapons will have no impact on the security situation, including in the European region. Russia has an outdated Arsenal of nuclear weapons, as evidenced by the statements of the military-political leadership on the modernization of the Arsenal. Thus, under the guise of reducing it can occur with recycling of old weapons on the background of the development of the new.

Fourth, the value has first strike, and even the reduction of the Russian nuclear Arsenal by 50% will retain the capacity to overcome missile defense protection in the case of NATO strike first. Thus, trump is an illusion of solving the problem, which indicates inconsistency with the Pentagon. The theme of the reduction of nuclear weapons — the traditional focus of the Cold war era, which indirectly indicates the source of the proposed ideas. Do not rule out that this initiative comes from Russia.

At the same time, the reduction of nuclear potential has no effect on the potential use of hybrid (conventional) methods of war with the Russian Federation and is not a tool to return to the Kremlin in the framework of international law.