Course 30: Ukraine sharply the dollar

January and February is a difficult month for the national currency and in this period we can expect a “peak” of the fall of the hryvnia. After the course stabiliziruemost, but in the first months of 2017, according to forecasts of the head of the analytical Department at Concorde Capital Oleksandr Parade, the dollar may cost the Ukrainians at 28.5 – 29 hryvnia.

In February, the hryvnia exchange rate will affect the need for purchasing energy abroad and conjuncture on external markets. As noted by the head of analytical Department of Concorde Capital Oleksandr Parashchiy, in February due to a long weekend in China (Chinese New year begins on January 28 and will be celebrated 15 days) there is a decline in the markets of ore and steel products exported by Ukraine.

“Possible seasonal surge in February, as it was in the previous three years. Then you can wait for the peak – rate can be even at 28.5 and 29 hryvnia and above. But it will be a short-term phenomenon. Hopefully in February we will get a tranche from the IMF that will positively affect the course. We know when IMF gives us the credit, exchange rate expectations are changing and the hryvnia strengthened”, – says Aleksandr Parashchiy.

In this case, before the end of 2017, according to the Concorde Capital forecast, the dollar in Ukraine will cost 28,5 hryvnia, and the average for the year – 28 UAH.

“After February, the hryvnia will be strengthened and will gradually go to the level of 28.5 hryvnia to the end of the year. Obviously, in the course of impact of news about the next tranches of the IMF. February 17 should be a court of “credit Yanukovych,” there can be negative surprises. Another major factor is the result of a judicial proceeding “Naftogaz” and “Gazprom” (to be in the first half),” – says Aleksandr Parashchiy.