The world greeted the new year in a strong mist: the unpredictability of the future and uncertainty. Does the world will live by the law of the jungle, when everything will depend on economic and military power? Do the relations between countries are not based on rules and fundamental principles, and greed?
After the Second world war, the international community went to stability and prosperity by deepening interdependence and cooperation, which went beyond individual States.
In the U.S., which built the Foundation, soon the President will be Donald trump, who plays for isolationism. Spring will start negotiations on entering the UK, has chosen isolation from the EU.
On the one hand, experts predict a period of decay, on the other hand, you need to face the cruel reality: more and more problems that cannot be solve by only one country.
Terrorism, migrants, global warming, nuclear proliferation, cybercrime… Obviously, if you completely close the border, it will be impossible to resolve the crisis without cooperation with other countries.
You cannot abandon international cooperation, based on trust and dialogue. You should not chase short-term profits. It is important to remember the principles and values of a democratic society as the rule of law, freedom and human rights. This year required to demonstrate the aspiration and wisdom.
European attempts under threat
Elections in major European countries will be the litmus test.
In the first half of this year presidential elections will be held in France. In the Netherlands held parliamentary elections. In these countries people speak against Islam, the EU and migrants. Increasingly popular far-right nationalist party that could defeat the ruling party.
If these countries which have made serious contribution to the unification of the EU, will come to power right-wing parties, the European efforts towards regional cooperation for peace, will be on the verge of failure. Most likely Europe, whose initiative was formed to such fundamental principles as respect for human rights, will finally lose its influence.
It is also necessary to monitor the elections in Germany where Chancellor Angela Merkel tends to remain for a fourth term.
During the European crisis, Merkel has demonstrated its leadership. With regard to the Ukrainian crisis, she discussed with President Putin. Trump it also called for the respect of democracy, freedom and the rule of law.
Now Merkel even believe the last guardian of these values, however, the hostility to all foreign approaches her.
If right-wing parties that opposed the admission of migrants, will receive a certain number of seats in Parliament, Merkel’s influence will decrease. This can not lead to an erosion of democracy in the world community.
Middle class revolt
The concern is the fact that a British exit from the EU and a victory for trump in the presidential election fostered a chauvinistic parties. In order to understand the reasons for this, you need to pay attention to the revolt of the middle class, which showed two events.
The middle class is concerned that as a result of changes in the industrial structure and the technological revolution resulting from globalization, it can be down to the poor. People are unhappy that they have no chance to become richer than their parents.
In the middle class is becoming less of sympathy and solidarity. People direct their anger towards political parties who don’t care about them, as well as migrants and refugees, which, in their opinion, a warm welcome.
The chauvinistic policy of luring the middle class to his side, making enemies of the elite and migrants.
The existing policy should be aware of their responsibility for the situation: that she was not paying attention to the complaints of people suffering from globalization and have made no real effort to search for specific measures.
Responsibility for international cooperation
It is impossible to retreat in the face of an uncertain future.
USA and Europe are formed democratic States. Even if there were deviations, everything went back to normal like a pendulum. Not to be overly pessimistic.
It is necessary to maintain a middle class that was the bearer of the moderate democratic views. Trump promises about tax cuts for the rich and protectionist trade policies will not pull the middle class out of the abyss. We need concrete policies designed to survive disasters of globalization, for example, a comprehensive technical and vocational education.
It is also important to make efforts to overcome the collapse. Social network on the one hand gave the individual a chance to speak, and on the other has created a split in the minds of people. It is necessary to create a space where people will share different opinions, trying to understand each other. You should also restore confidence in the media.
The people of Greece reached out to the refugees who reached the island, risking their lives. Many Germans take the refugees to their families. If a bona fide civil society will create a network that is not restricted by the borders of one country, it will help to stop the isolationism.
Japan should play an important role as a conduit of the values of a democratic society. Not to think only about their own interests, and to take responsibility for how to develop international cooperation. We should be aware of this.