Recent evidence suggests that Russia may be planning a major ground operation against Ukraine.
This is the blog for the Atlantic Council says the Professor of political science at Rutgers University in Newark (new Jersey) Alexander Motyl.
“While the President of Russia Vladimir Putin leads a conversation about the world, some leading Russian analysts have explicitly supported the “Syrian option” in relation to Ukraine. 20 Dec senior expert of the Center for military-political studies of the prestigious Moscow state Institute of international relations Mikhail Alexandrov said that if the Ukrainian military massively violate the ceasefire in the Eastern Donbass, Russia must meet “the massive attack of the army of Donbass in support of aircraft and systems long-range: that is, missile systems, cruise missiles, and “Iskander”, – says Alexander Motyl.
Also, American scientist cites the television program “Evening with Vladimir Solovyov” on December 27, where Alexander Kofman, the former “foreign Minister” of the so-called “DNR”, and Rostislav Ishchenko, the former Ukrainian journalist, who moved to the Russian side, discussed how Russia and Russian-backed militants could seize Ukrainian cities.
“Their short-sightedness surprising even if only because the Ukrainian army is fighting to the last with Russia and its militants in the Eastern Donbass. With only 6,000 people in full combat readiness at the beginning of 2014, when Russia invaded the Crimea and the Donbass, currently Ukraine has about 100,000 veteran troops, competent and experienced officer corps, and more modern weapons. Moreover, the population became more Patriotic and anti-Russian and will fight. A Russian invasion is likely to succeed, because the Russia’s use of aviation may lead to destructive effect, but the subsequent occupation would be extremely costly,” the American Professor.
According to him, if Russia decides to conquer all of Ukraine, will require an additional 548587 soldiers – or a total of 667123 to 865769 soldiers.
“Can Russia afford such a war, even when it is already embroiled in Syria? Possible. But the cost will be enormous not only for the Ukrainians, who will die hundreds of thousands, but also for the Russian, who will die a hundred thousand,” – said the expert.
We will remind, according to the defense Ministry in the area of ATO 5 thousand personnel of the Russian soldiers and 35 thousand fighters. In addition, armed fighters have 600 tanks, 1.3 thousand combat vehicles, artillery systems 760 and 300 jet systems of volley fire.