Ukraine’s economy gradually stabiliziruemost, experts say. After a long crisis the country’s GDP is gradually increasing, the dollar is within projected levels, and the growth of social standards ahead of inflation. The website “Segodnia” find out what awaits Ukrainians in 2017.
As prices change and the dollar
The hryvnia exchange rate becomes more predictable, said the head of analytical Department of Concorde Capital Oleksandr Parashchiy. “Until the end of the year we expect the rate to 28.5 hryvnia to the dollar. The average rate for the year will be about 28 hryvnia,” – says the expert. In the company’s forecast takes into account that Ukraine will receive credit tranche from the IMF in the amount of one billion and 600 million euros of macroeconomic assistance from the EU.
“Until the end of the year we expect the rate to 28.5 hryvnia to the dollar. The average rate for the year will be about 28 hryvnia,” – says the expert.
Affect the hryvnia exchange rate this year can:
- The decision of the international court on the “duty of Yanukovych”
- The decision of the international court for disputes of Naftogaz and Gaspra
- The behavior of world prices for agricultural products and MMC
- Political stability in Ukraine
Senior analyst “Alpari” Vadim Iosub also I am sure the devaluation of the hryvnia in 2017 compared to previous years will slow and the dollar by the end of the year could be 28-28,5 hryvnia.
“In many ways, the course will not only depend on domestic economic situation, but also to the dynamics of the dollar in the world under the influence of the tightening monetary policy of the fed and economic policy of Donald trump,” – said the expert.
At the same time, according to the forecasts of the NBU and the Ministry of Finance budgeted for this year, the dollar will be at the level of 27.2 hryvnia.
Prices, if you believe the main financial document of the country will grow by 8.1%. The analysts of “Alpari” give a more pessimistic forecast – 8.5-9.5 per cent inflation. According to the Concorde Capital forecast, the price growth in this year will reach 7.9 per cent, and in Focus Economics suggest price growth at 8.4% by the end of 2017.
What will happen to the economy
Real GDP began to grow in the second quarter of 2016. Most analysts give a positive Outlook but at this point, in order to get the economy really started to grow, GDP must grow by at least 5% per year.
Concorde Capital forecast GDP growth of 2.1% per year. “We need to note that much of the growth last year is the result of a low comparative base, and therefore to support growth will need more investment. And investment is the result of positive changes in the country”, – says Aleksandr Parashchiy.
Photo: archive
According to analysts of “Alpari”, the GDP in 2017 will grow by 2.3-2.5 percent. Focus Economics forecast growth at 2.4%. The budgeted GDP growth – 3%.
Vadim Iosub notes: on the situation in the country, in addition to the economic factors that will affect the situation in the South-East and progress in the fight against corruption,
“Economic factors should be attributed to the stabilization of the banking system, increasing exports, foreign direct investment and getting the next tranches of the program for increased funding of the IMF, which, in turn, tied macroeconomic assistance of the European Union, the infrastructure loans from the world Bank and credit guarantee of the United States. The most important reforms just emerge from the program with the IMF, and relate to the land market, optimization of tariffs for heat and electricity, the development of the system of electronic Declaration, a further clearing of the banking system, the deficit of the pension system,” – said the expert.
Difficult period, said Oleksandr Parashchiy, may be 2019-th year. If Ukraine up to this point does not implement reforms and end the cooperation program with the IMF, the payment of external debts will rise and the country faces default.
What will happen to wages and pensions
Social standards (living wage and pensions) this year will grow by 10.1%. So, the minimum pension will grow from 1247 1347 to hryvnia, and the cost of living from 1600 to 1762 hryvnia.
The minimum wage since January this year increased by 200% – from 1600 to 3200 hryvnia and grow this year will be no more.
HR-expert Alexander Belous sure that wages in the private sector will grow regardless of indexing. “Business works according to the rules of the market. Wages increase faster than in the public sector”, – said the expert.
According to the State statistics service, more traditionally, all workers earn the aviation sector – flight attendants, pilots. Specialized sites there are several job openings for flight attendants and stewards, the salary ranges from 25 to 50 thousand hryvnia.
The average salary in the field of air transport – more than 27 thousand hryvnias. According to state statistics, in the second place in terms of wages, financiers and insurers (10 of 507 thousand UAH), followed by those in the IT-schnick (9 636 thousand hryvnia).
According to analysts of “Alpari” Anton Kosuri, salaries could rise by 25%. “In current conditions the private sector can be expected to increase wages by 20 to 25%, and on the employers’ side it was more forced than planned step.”, – says the expert.
Most often, experts say, to raise wages employers forcing the market. If the stated salary is not going to work – wages have to be revised.
“We had a situation where at the beginning of the year, the banks suddenly increased wages. We began to investigate and found that the majority of growth – wages of young specialists in the branches, which are without experience. For them, the bankers had to fight with the stores, with contact centers. If banks on average paid 3500, operators pay 4000-4500 and sellers is 4500-5000 UAH. The bankers were forced to raise the salaries of young and untried to someone involve with the market”, – says HR expert rabota.ua Tatyana Pashkina.
The expert is sure that the salaries in the private sector next year may increase by 10-30%. “As for business, he adds wages in the corridor from 10% to 30% for miscellaneous employees per year. But that is the average temperature in the hospital. In fact, with a good “weather”, 30% is the maximum, which raised the salary”, – says HR expert rabota.ua.
