For several weeks, some of “our” media are anti-Russian campaign, claiming that Russia is on the verge of having to recognize Kosovo and thus to secure the recognition by the United States of the entry of the Crimea into the Russian Federation. Propagandists are smarter, like the Ambassador of one of the large Eastern European countries that recently voted on this issue, nevertheless don’t go beyond the hypothetical framework and argue that Putin gladly agreed to this option, whether it is offered. Manipulators just presented unacceptable for the Serbs the deal world powers as almost a fait accompli. Let’s thoroughly consider, what at all is it?
The prospect of a real policy
I already wrote about that in the near future — in the context of a mutual desire for comprehensive positive reset — start talks between Washington and Moscow about the decision of the problems connected with the future of the self-proclaimed several (quasi -) state of the unions and failed state formation, or rather on the new territorial distinctions in them and some other cases. And of course, speech does not go about the desire of certain circles to give California and new Mexico independence or about the probable adjustments to the border between the United States and Canada. The West is what it is, and largely because of ideological autism some Western and Russian leaders, former power not so long ago, he intervened in Russian Affairs.
Response interference was not. So we will talk about the resolution of problems encountered in the so-called “historical Russia”, that is, around the modern Russian Federation, including on the issue of Crimea. Undoubtedly, there will be raised various topics, ranging from Abkhazian-South Ossetian and Transnistrian until the Crimean, Donetsk and other relating to Ukrainian issues. In the case of a wider scope of topics discussed, of course, come in and about Kosovo and Metohija in General, and on the Northern part of our southern areas in particular, such as Bosnia and Herzegovina, Republic of Srpska, Macedonia, Montenegro. In some areas the conversation will affect the fundamental agreement of the two powers on the positions, which they occupy in the issue of the right to self-determination to certain peoples and communities. Also on the agenda is (not)the enlargement of the Atlantic Alliance.
That’s not all, but only the key aspects. From the point of view of real politics, some of education have only a minor importance for US, none of the precedents of this does not matter. The situation changes if the aforementioned issues be considered from an ideological perspective, but won the trump, and now the President, he began to act as a person who is interested in America and not mondialisations and the neoliberal extremist expansion (ideology).
Priorities strong world
From the position of the American President — I’ll say it again — the above is of secondary importance, perhaps only as a factor in other disputes. For Washington, everything is a bargaining chip. Trump is not going to lead a cold war against Russia and for this to ignite a fire around it. His goal is Islamic terrorism, Iran and China, so Trump it is important that as more strengthened the position of Israel and the part of American business, who in their own country creates jobs in place and there invests the profit obtained abroad.
Due to the fact that trump is extremely important, he will try to achieve from Russia of concessions. He will be ready to repay certain agreements in areas that directly relate to the agreement, as well as in indirect questions, making concessions where the Russians have their own interests (in the near and far abroad). By the way, in all of this so discuss the lifting of sanctions against Russia plays the most minor role, although it is implied. And if we talk about prices for fossil fuels, which are important for Russia, surrounded by trump or slightly less than Putin’s entourage, is interested in their growth.
In the light of what was said about the Russian and American “coins” for geopolitical calculation of return to Kosovo and the Republika Srpska. They are associated with our vital interests. Moreover, together with Montenegro they form the essence of the “Serbian question.” As for the Russian, they, on the one hand, of course, are interested in supporting the historic Serbian partner, and on the other, is calculated to prevent the compression ring around it (don’t know when this tactic will once again be a priority of the next American administration), an important and symbolic elements of which are in the Balkans. As for the Americans, who think rationally, for their national interests of Kosovo and Metohija, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, last year’s snow. We are talking about (geo)political postulates “of the Clinton-Soros” policy, victim in the US defeat. This policy was a product of their Empire, devoid of any national feelings, in which America was the main striking force. Hence, the sacred meaning of Kosovo and Bosnia for those communities who have initiated similar policies. It is clear that if trump everything turned 180 degrees.
© RIA Novosti, Yulia Petrovskaia Spain opened in Bosnian Mostar area in memory of the fallen soldiers of the UN
Global game
Washington will try as much as possible to distance Moscow from Beijing and Tehran, or rather as advantageous as possible for itself to localize the contentious issues with China and Iran. Russia, of course, is not going to risk it and jeopardize its relations with these two countries. China knowing that if Russia were to be broken, sooner or later, and until his turn comes “to shoot”, indirectly to some extent helped her while she was the main target. Moscow, in turn, understands that in the long term, it is not beneficial to Beijing came out unscathed. So he’s not going to conflict with America and do not miss the chance to normalize relations with the United States.
As well as China, which has maintained good relations with the Obama administration while developing them with Russia, will arrive and Putin. China was able to successfully find the prospect of a Solomon to observe Ukrainian, and to a certain extent and the Syrian crisis, leaving Russia to solve the problem of Western expansion. Moscow has enough intelligence and the ability to take exactly the same evil stance against Pacific pain points. Without going into sensitive details, China cleverly maintains the position of Russia as a global power factor, but made sure to strengthen their own economic and political power through the closest possible cooperation with Russia’s enemies (though it gave them considerable momentum for action against Russia). In the case of aggravation of the us-Chinese relations, Russia has the opportunity to start the same geopolitical game. For other reasons the same applies to Russian relations with Iran.
Successful foreign policies of major States implies a high degree of creativity and flexibility, and since then, the Kremlin got rid of the ideology and disillusionment left by the cold war, he shows the achievements in this field. In the face of trump’s Russia, it seems, will find a worthy partner. Of course, for trump, it is essential that his opponent was not homogeneous Russian-Chinese, and possibly wider block to every dispute was solved asymmetrically. So expect that soon the trump will start trading on the Russian-American exchange of different geopolitical parts, and this process will affect a huge area from Europe to the Pacific ocean.
Trump and Kosovo
© flickr.com Clay GillilandПриштина, Kosovo
But the first concrete results will be obtained immediately. And it is unlikely they will be associated with our region. Although it may be, just be! Russia, of course, much more interested in the fate of the Crimea, than Kosovo. So does Washington, so the deal on important issues to base on the Crimean and other problems that have accumulated in the post-Soviet space. Therefore in the near future it is possible to achieve a certain agreement, but there is a likelihood that the process will be delayed because of the Chinese-Iranian aspect, that is, from the discussions over the concessions that the powers will be ready to go in the name of each other’s priorities. With regard to Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina, for the Russians, they are not essential, but still play a role. It may be that USA and associate these regions with certain interests arising from the priorities trump. If now it is still not clear as to trump the Balkans — a second-rate subject, the awareness can come after he will seriously implement the new policy. When revealed past US collusion with Islamists, it opened Pandora’s box climb and the Balkan evil spirits. Us is, paradoxically, on hand, in contrast to the Albanians who used to be Pets of the White house.
Trump persistently repeats that Islamic radicalism is the biggest danger to his country. It is well known that the major strongholds of Islamic radicalism in Europe are located in Bosnia and Herzegovina and in Kosovo. Those who in 90-ies of the last century, the Serbs fought on the territory of Bihac to the Ball of the Mountain are the colleagues of those extremists, who now cut the head in Syria and commit terrorist acts in Europe and the United States. The former us administration turn a blind eye to, because otherwise she would have had to admit that her Balkan allies, which propaganda portrayed as the suffering of fighters for truth and democracy, is actually the personification of Islamist darkness. Also in the case was involved many years of lobbying communications. Trump is free from such liabilities, so, logically, America, which collapses the policy involving, on the one hand, the nominal in the fight against Islamism, and in cooperation with its powerful unions (act and state), pretty soon change their attitude to Pristina and Sarajevo.
Lobbying combination
In short, perhaps in the Balkan question of Russia and the USA it will be easier to find a common language. And just so that we are the best! And from a rational point of view is possible that they agree to harm us. This is well understood and Albanians, as well as the ruling in Sarajevo structure with the claims to hegemony of Bosnia and Herzegovina. So now they, through their lobbyists in Serbia and mondialisations local activists, under the control of Euro-Atlantic power centers, which are still in a strong European countries are trying to demoralize the Serbs.
This spreads the lie that American Balkan policy, nothing will change, despite the victory of trump, and that Russia will back down from us, so as to compensate the Americans for their support in the issue of the Crimea, or something else that is a priority for the Kremlin. Clear: all this is nonsense. Serbian position in Kosovo and Metohija, and Bosnia and Herzegovina has for Putin is much more important than Muslim or Albanian position to trump. In addition, as already mentioned, now Washington has its own reasons to turn to Muslims and Albanians are back, and so the Serbian position will be America closer.
© AFP 2016, Armend NimaniУчения anti-riot near the village of Vrelo
Real developments in this direction can already develop at the end of this or early next year. Best of all, this assumption is confirmed by the fact that Albanian lobbyists in America — and there are many, and we must not forget, not only in the Republican party, but also among supporters of the new administration from the ranks of the party mainstream, which is necessary even to the new President — again raise the issue of separation of Kosovo for the exchange of territories with Central Serbia. The Albanians are ready to get at least a few villages near the town of Presevo, because they know that their American defenders today lost power, though some of them retained a place in the American administration (and irritate us with their statements).
Patience will lead to the solution
That would trump any thought about NATO, he will not abandon this Covenant, but only to find another level of relations within it. But Kosovo is not NATO. From Kosovo, America will not be able to extract at least some benefit, and, knowing this, the Albanians are not going to passively wait for their unenviable fate. Well-informed us diplomatic circles who know that Pristina is ready to Serbian-Albanian demarcation and exchange in the ratio of three to one, that is, the North of Kosovo is only one part of the area of Presevo and Bujanovac (previously these areas were required entirely, together with Medicom, and now they, like the city of Bujanovac, do not claim). In fact, Pristina and Tirana interested in the fact that the Albanian question was raised in the broad context and in territorial terms, and would not be considered only within the framework of Kosovo.
We are talking about strategy a large part of Macedonia and part of Montenegro in the next step. But it let think of the modes in Podgorica and Skopje, and for us it is important that we act as pragmatic as the Albanians, utility consuming someone else’s, and that we protect and joins her. Serbian issue cannot be resolved, partially or to go to some of the monstrous combinations (such as: the South of Central Serbia in exchange for Northern Kosovo or the separation of Kosovo and Metohija, which we a priori limits, leaving us with only the Northern part of our region). We have to wait for the moment when will be able to raise the Serbian question comprehensively, or at least on the scale in which will be eliminated by great sacrifice.
This implies what I have said: the possible (complex) division of Kosovo and Metohija with a parallel recognition of the right to self-determination of Republika Srpska (and negotiations with Montenegro about some form of connection). More favorable circumstances for us, I’m sure will develop in the near future, and only then, should join the process of creating a new state-territorial agreements. Russia we definitely will not back down. It will not have on it neither desires nor causes. But the United States, without a doubt, sooner or later give up of Albanians and Bosnian Muslims in the lurch. Rational considerations, not fancy prove that it would, but yet again the Serbs will have a hard time under the weight of dark illusions and propaganda forecasts of local and other “serbophobic” global adherents of the dominant order, originating in the 90s.
