The expert forecasts concerning the trends in the secondary housing market in Ukraine vary dramatically. While some are waiting for further price reductions, while others believe that the apartments it’s time to rise, writes UBR.
In 2016 the average capital prices in the secondary market dipped by 12%, to 1 114 dollars per square meter, reported in “Olympus consulting”. According to the Vice-President of the League of experts Andriy Gusel’nikova, prices on the secondary market have stabilized and there is a chance that next year, housing in the capital will go up again.
“We see that in the last months of the year prices fluctuated very conditional, 0,1 – 0,5% a month, or a dollar or two on the square. It is now possible to speak about stability,” — said Gusel’nikov. The expert hopes that in the second quarter of next year in the secondary housing market will start to rise in price. “If there is no force majeure,” — said Gusel’nikov.
Opposite opinion of the General Director of consulting company “Samson” Alexander Rubanov.
“There are no prerequisites to improve the situation. The market is in stagnation and how long will he be in this condition is difficult to predict. Not the main thing — growth of incomes of the population. No attempts neither from banks, nor from the state to stimulate the real estate market. Energy prices are rising, and therefore, the load per square meter is increasing,” lists a disturbing factors expert.
In his opinion, a square meter in the secondary market will drop next year for 10 -1 5%. “The more dilapidated housing, the faster it will lose in price,” — said Rubanov.
The analyst SV Development Sergey Kostecki said that the number of transactions in 2017 may be reduced, and after that — and prices.
“The last few years, resale was the alternative to the banks. Yes, the funds are not lost, but not multiply, because the price of the square continues to fall. How will drop rates? Everything will depend on the primary market, or rather from how he will be able to overcome the crisis of underfunding,” said Kostecki.
Primary: the policy of malometrazhki repair
Among the factors that most strongly influence the real estate market in 2016, the managing Director of ARPA Real Estate Michael Artyukhov said the absence of a running mortgage.
“Although according to statistics the NBU, the number of mortgage loans has increased, the market is noticeable. The reason — the high discount rate of the NBU for financing the purchase of real estate mortgage. To start the market, you must have at least 15% for the end user (i.e., 11% of the NBU),” — said Artyukhov.
Therefore, the main demand (about 90%), as in the previous two years, were concentrated in the economy segment.
“Sold by what is presented in the range of 400 thousand UAH to 1 million UAH in Kyiv and in the suburbs. This year’s trends — to increase the supply of mini apartments renovated and furnished. And if investors before looking for projects is now looking for a professional team, trusted by investing in square footage under management”, — said Artyukhov.
Prior to entering houses in the operation are sold at least 75-80% of the apartments.
According to his estimates, the share of sold apartments in the new building at the stage of commissioning has increased in comparison with last year, with about 30 to 40%. A slight increase in the share of apartments sold, reported in the Appartments. “Intergal-Buda” said that prior to entering houses in the operation are sold at least 75-80% of the apartments.
“This percentage has remained stable for several years. To achieve this result enables stable work of the company and have a proven reputation as a reliable Builder,” — said Deputy commercial Director of the company “Intergal-Bud” Anna Laevskaya.
DIM sales statistics for the year does not show any significant changes in comparison with the year 2015 and according to the company, at the stage of commissioning of the sold 98% of the total number of apartments.
But experts say that some developers purposely inflate the statistics. “We have volumes of delivery of housing in operation is comparable with 2008-2009, when I was actively working Bank lending. Now the volumes claimed by some developers, is unlikely. But the particulars of the contracts can not check, because in the register of owners of the entered data only when full payment of apartments in already commissioned the house,” — said Kostecki.
He suggests that 2017 will be a difficult year for the market of primary real estate.
“The volumes are growing, and the number of transactions, recognize falls. For the year on the background of the hidden inflation of about 30% of the price per square meter in the new building practically has not changed. Moreover, I assume that they will not grow next year, remaining within the 18 to 25 thousand UAH per sq. m. Purchasing capacity is not increased,” — said Kostecki.
“At the moment the prerequisites for a substantial revision of prices in the market — agrees with him Anna Laevskaya. — As before, most active buyers will purchase housing economy and comfort class, which now accounts for about 70% of the total number of transactions. The virtual absence of mortgage lending leads to the fact that the price is for buyers an important role when choosing an apartment. This situation, apparently, in the coming year will not change.”
But the forecast from Kievgorstroy — prices will rise. “First of all, because rising construction costs, a significant part of which consists of the prices of construction materials. The rise in building materials due to higher energy prices. Will affect the price and the increase from January 2017 the minimum wage. Another component of the rising cost of housing is the demand. Despite the crisis phenomena in the economy, the interest in construction projects is constantly growing. At the same time places greater demands on the quality of construction to the buyer”, — explained in the Appartments.
According to Artyukhova, neither the price nor the structure of supply and demand in 2017 will not change. “The most notable trend will be the increase in the supply of mini apartments renovated and furnished. The segment of apartments will develop more dynamically,” says Artyukhov.
Another trend he called the reduction number of floors construction in areas adjacent to the center of the capital and in the suburbs. “This is due to the fact that buyers want to your apartment as quickly as possible. Although, the desire to build tall buildings has always been and will be. Such projects will simply become less focused they will be mainly in the centre of the capital and the most optimized from the point of view of maintenance and energy efficiency,” — said Michael Artyukhov.
