Armenian armed forces fired 120 mm mortars village of Aghdam of Tovuz district. It is easy to assume that after Friday, July 10, the statement of the Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinian about the importance of “self-determination of the Armenian community of Nagorno Karabakh” Yerevan will not refuse to “Flex its muscles” and “to show a grin.”
The more that the may maneuvers of the Azerbaijani army, which involved up to 10 thousand troops, about 120 armored vehicles and tanks, up to 30 units of army and tactical aviation, has clearly shown that attempts a military solution to the conflict on the Armenian side will fail to Yerevan is extremely unfortunate, to say the least.
Forces of the parties are clearly not comparable, Azerbaijan subregional power, Armenia is a country of ambition, but not the real military-political potential, what you’re talking.
But the fact of the matter is that the ashes are the oldest in the former Soviet Union conflict knocks, not only in heart but in the head of the Armenian politicians. It seems like succeeded by using the coincidence and the collapse of the Soviet Empire, to snatch a piece from a neighbor — but complete victory was not.
Moreover, every year everything becomes more clearly [clearly] that the occupied territory is not to withhold and not to master — resources becomes less and less. Remains the way of whipping everything in front of the external players and the path of provocation with the purpose to expose yourself constantly to be victims of the “aggressive and authoritarian Baku”.
Taking place on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border, I stress, not on the line of contact between Azerbaijan and seized his territories on the border of this scenario provocations.
Version of the Armenian military on the cause of the incident can not withstand any criticism. Moreover, in other circumstances, would have caused laughter, if not the death of Sergeant Vugar Sadigov and member Elshad Mammadov and Khayyam Dashdemirova. When the ambitions of the Yerevan hawks paid for by the blood, it causes righteous anger and loathing for clowns who lit torch run at a gunpowder warehouse and screaming about “Azerbaijani aggression”.
And so to the outside world it situation — what is the strategic miscalculation of the Armenian leadership. Because of their deep provincialism, they seriously believe that their problems are seriously worried about the rest of the world. And no more of the world and neighboring powers concerns than to worry about why not satisfied Armenian ambitions in the South Caucasus.
Let us leave aside the question of how much cost the Armenian Diaspora lobbying for genocide recognition in the us Congress. But there is reason to believe that this amount is comparable to the size of the state social insurance Fund of Armenia.
Ask another [question]: at what cost to the country’s foreign political ambitions of its leadership and that Armenia receives for their implementation? “Donut hole” — to be honest. Guarantor of security and sovereignty is a Russian military base. The guarantor of relative economic stability and external income. These conditions require at least the country-the kept woman to behave modestly.
But Yerevan does exactly the opposite, believing that the more hype and arrogance — the more to it attention. And this is his strategic mistake. The screams and noise quickly tire, obsessive — creates a desire to get rid of the “toxic” subject. And there’s a situation — when you simply stop to notice — and scream as much as necessary, but no one responds.
Apparently, it was so soon in the international arena and will apply to Armenia, even those who are considered its allies. And no link the Diaspora in this case will not help.
Ambitions of Yerevan, including its territorial claims — has anyone in the world uninteresting. Armenian politicians to be congratulated on this achievement to strategic loneliness unsound, but extremely ambitious countries there are only a few steps — and Armenia is steadily moving in this direction. Then her fate will be very sad. After all, playing with fire, but still on the move, of course, possible. But — very long.