In the Ukraine again in the spirit of anti-Russian propaganda says about “possible invasion” of the armed forces of Ukraine. Supposedly this can happen during the military exercise “Kavkaz-2020”, which starts in July. This is evidenced by the Ministry of foreign Affairs of Ukraine, and deputies Poroshenko and retired US generals, which is shown on Ukrainian TV channels. “Country” is understood, whether groundless such statements or is this another horror stories from the “party of war”, which was already a lot in recent years.
What is known about the exercises Kavkaz-2020
On the “Caucasus” in December, said the Minister of defence of Russia Sergey Shoigu. He outlined them in September. They must take part in the military of the six countries of the SCO and the CSTO. Not abolished the teachings and after the onset of coronavirus. In may, the defense Ministry confirmed that the active phase of the exercises will begin in the fall, and preparations already in July. The office called them the large-scale strategic military exercise of the year.
The specific magnitude is not known, but it is possible to imagine. In the main Russian military exercises last year, “Center-2019” was involved about 128 thousand soldiers, more than 20 thousand units of military equipment, about 600 aircraft. In the summer of “Caucasus” will begin with exercises aviation — marine and — and assault. There will also be massively involved drones as reconnaissance and shock.
Despite the fact that July is declared as the preparatory month, there will have to involve a large number of troops. “Activities of military training 2020 with the involvement of a large number of troops will be held in July — September,” — said Shoigu.
Interestingly, on Monday, Vladimir Putin signed a decree on the fees of reservists. Military experts from Russia attribute this to the exercises “Caucasus-2020”. It is important to understand that these exercises are directly connected with Ukraine. Exercises carried out on the territory of the southern military district of Russia, which includes now the Crimea and, accordingly, — the black sea fleet.
The southern military district of Russia was significantly strengthened in 2014 — after the start of the conflict in the Donbas and annexation of Crimea. Until 2016 it was created four new divisions and nine brigades, twenty-two regiments, including two missile brigades of Iskander. The teachings of the “Caucasus” have been held in 2016. They were attended by 120 thousand soldiers. Then the Minister of defence Shoigu visited Crimea, where he conducted part of the exercise.
“Kavkaz” and the reaction of Ukraine
Note that even in 2016, Kiev said that the exercises “Caucasus” Russia is preparing an invasion of Ukraine. “Ukraine is deeply concerned about the conduct on the border of Ukraine military exercises “Caucasus 2016”. Under the guise of a sudden check the combat readiness of the armed forces 25-31 August, which actually was the initial step in “the Caucasus-2016″, Russia concentrated on the South-West group of forces numbering about 100 thousand (including about 41 thousand near the borders of Ukraine), more than 2.5 thousand units of military equipment, 60 warships, 400 aircraft and helicopters. More than 11 thousand military personnel were deployed in the southern military district from other districts of Russia”, — said the foreign Ministry of Ukraine.
This year the rhetoric was repeated and even strengthened saying that you have to be “mentally” prepared for a military invasion. “Opinion about the possibility of a military offensive are shared by a significant number of military experts and analysts. NATO also understand how real is the use of the military potential of Russia against Ukraine, and its activation is possible just in the short term. Therefore, we need to be mentally prepared for the fact that Russia will not hesitate to use the armed forces to achieve their political or economic goals,” — said Deputy foreign Minister of Ukraine Vasyl Bodnar.
“Any doctrine can fairly quickly go into the active phase of hostilities, so the risk is definitely growing, and, of course, the military can see it. Recently there was a statement made by the representative of the Main intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of defense, the military clearly understand the threat of such actions”, — dobavil Cooper.
The Deputy Minister indicated that the reasons for the invasion can be “internal instability in Russia” in connection with voting on amendments to the Constitution of the Russian Federation and dissatisfaction with its results, and, for example, the issue of water supply to the Crimea.
“This issue of principle for us, we decided the water cannot be served in the Crimea until its de-occupation. Therefore, it can be also one of the reasons why the Russians can resort to active hostilities, including those on the front lines between Ukrainian and Russian troops,” — said the Deputy Minister. In turn, the intelligence of the defense Ministry of Ukraine said that the main purpose of the exercise — “pressure and intimidation of Ukraine.” That is, the invasion of the Ukrainian military don’t just talk.
“The main objective will be to intimidation and imposition at all levels of the idea of inevitability of execution of the Russian requirements in respect of the occupied territories and the ability of the Kremlin to defend its interests by force”, — said the representative of the Gur Vadim Skibitsky.
Whether to wait to attack Russia?
Warning that Russia is preparing to attack the Ukraine are heard regularly in 2014. However, by about the year 2017 the intensity began to subside. And continued to warn about the imminent attack only individuals like the Secretary of the NSDC Oleksandr Turchynov. Whose statements very few people took seriously. Others simply expressed concern about the concentration of troops during the exercise.
But this year, the Ministry of foreign Affairs spoke about the fact that Russia has plans to invade Ukraine. Although, judging by the previous exercise “Kavkaz 2016”, nobody attacked. The aim apparently was to build up the confrontational rhetoric. That is not surprising, given the fact that in the Mid 90% are still old poroshenkovskie frames.
By the way, the party Poroshenko picked up the statement Bodnar and said that only the Ministry of foreign Affairs is the guardian of the interests of Ukraine, other agencies ignore the threat from the “Caucasus-2020”. A Deputy Ahtem Chiygoz suggested that Russia could use the pretext of the exercise and capture the South of Ukraine.
However, to speak about the Russian exercises not only “Parkaboy”. Recently created on the initiative Zelensky state TV channel “House” which broadcasts on the uncontrolled territories of Ukraine, has released an interview with the former commander of US forces in Europe Ben Hodges.
He said that Russia this autumn, under the guise of large-scale military exercises “Caucasus-2020”, may attempt to seize the dam in Kherson, which covers the Dnieper water in the Crimea. New invasion the Kremlin could justify a humanitarian catastrophe on the Peninsula.
“I hope I’m wrong, but I have a vision, a scenario that is so typical of what Russia has done in the past that during the exercises in the Caucasus, they will declare a humanitarian crisis in Crimea because of the water, and then say that they have no choice. They must capture the dam in Kherson to the North, to allow water to return to the Crimea,” said retired Lieutenant General of the U.S. army.
Note that “March for water” in unison with Hodges said, and the Ukrainian foreign Ministry. But how realistic is this scenario?
Given that such warnings sound at each exercise of the Russian Federation, the probability of an attack under the guise of war games is hard to believe. Moreover, Russia is trying to remove the international sanctions, not to strengthen them. The water did not come yesterday and for more than five years, once decided by the Russian leadership. It is unclear why the attack because of this need right now.
At the same time, the gain of the talks that Moscow can attack Kyiv from the water can be applied the goal. For example, make impossible the supply of water to the Peninsula, which, albeit with an eye to the “party of war”, but think to ze command.
Probably, the expectation that after the mass of statements about the military threat of Russia and blackmail “water in exchange for peace”, the Zelensky will be forced to completely abandon the idea to resume supplies to the Peninsula.
