Adopted the rhythm of “espresso” by both houses of the us Congress a bill on sanctions is a clear marker of what the mood regarding Russia, Iran and North Korea are rampant in the American establishment. At the same time, this document has very little chance of becoming in practice the categorical imperative to guide U.S. actions toward these countries.
Because the circumstances of its adoption, it is important not only adopted, but WHEN. And in this situation in the above mentioned force majeure adoption of this document is the main aspect that determines the further fate of the adopted document — to leave on the shelf adopted laws which are in effect not joined it, but remained theoretical acts.
And here’s why. The first: President trump, continue to look for ways of reducing confrontation with Russia probably will not support this legislation. Which is completely contrary to its approach to relations with Russia in General and its leadership in particular.
Second, voting data, showing convincing support of the bill on sanctions in both houses of Congress, theoretically, give all grounds to assert about overcoming the President’s veto trump this act.
Third, and most importantly. President Trump the Constitution of the United States provides ten working days to sign any bill. If Congress would circulate the document to the head of state less than ten days before leaving for the holidays (this year was moved from July 31 to August 12, the US’s recent history of similar transfers had not happened since 1994), trump has a chance to apply a “pocket” veto. That is, to delay the signing of not presenting any explanation. And if the bill on sanctions and will not be signed until the termination of the Congress, he won’t be accepted. And Congress will have to pass this bill in the next session, and from the very beginning.
The probability that such tool, a very exotic and rarely used in American legal practice, will use the trump is of the order of 90%. Another 10% remains for other options, given the expressiveness and impulsiveness of the current occupant of the White house.
That is, adopted the bill on sanctions is seen as a demonstration of the intentions of the key forces in American politics. This product is primarily for internal use in the United States. In other words, both Republicans and fellow Democrats in both houses of Congress, and on the other hand, the President made their bets.
No more bets. But they certainly will by fall, when Congress will begin work on a new version of the law on sanctions.
