July 4, the United States came to the conclusion that North Korea launched it an Intercontinental ballistic missile. For the US launch ICBM is crossing the “red line”, so trump administration, which announced the possibility of using military force, will have to go to new steps. Hard action or dialogue? I have tried to analyze possible developments.
The danger of unsuccessful diplomacy
Before heading to Europe to participate in the G20 summit, which will be held in Germany, July 5 President, trump told reporters that he will take appropriate action against nuclear and missile issues of the DPRK. On the sidelines of the G20 summit he intends to hold a meeting with the head of China XI Jinping and Russian President Putin, and to encourage them to respond to the North Korean problem.
“To eliminate the threat, you must act in the world,” said U.S. Secretary of state Rex Tillerson 4th of July. On 5 July, during the emergency meeting of the UN Security Council, he explored the possibility of imposing additional sanctions. Tillerson also require that the pressure has strengthened the G20. Chances are that in the short term, the US will continue to pursue a diplomacy of pressure.
However realize it will be difficult. Most likely, China, which expect the US will keep them together with Russia. American diplomacy pressure may be useless.
Thus, the probability that Washington will seek solutions through dialogue, involving countries such as China and Russia. However, for US the condition for dialogue is the nuclear disarmament of the DPRK, while Pyongyang does not accept these terms, stating that he will not put nuclear weapons and missiles on the negotiating table. Even if the countries concerned will be able to bring the DPRK to the negotiating table, it may be just a waste of time.
A hint of military power and voltage
If neither pressure nor dialogue will not work, the US can dramatically toughen its position against the background of military force. Such a possibility cannot be ruled out. Indeed, some American officials suggest it again send aircraft carrier strike group to the Korean Peninsula.
The DPRK has positioned the development of nuclear weapons as an integral part of government policy and refuses to close its nuclear program.
According to a University Professor studying North Korea, technological developments, the DPRK aimed to become a nuclear power, go according to plan. The creation of nuclear weapons would seriously enhance the credibility of Kim Jong-UN. How much would the U.S. not threatened the DPRK, it is unlikely that they will abandon the missile launches and nuclear tests. There is a danger that threats and provocations again.
© AP Photo, Korean Central News Adeptus rocket “Puchiko-2” in North Korea
The deal the U.S. and North Korea without Japan
At the moment the United States believe that the recent North Korean missile could reach Alaska. This means that while Washington is out of danger. A source in Western diplomatic fears that the administration may trump at this stage to make a deal with North Korea, which is far from curtailing the North Korean nuclear program.
In this scenario, the diplomatic initiative in the hands of Pyongyang, resulting in the US will be forced to make a deal. North Korea could impose a moratorium on nuclear and missile programs, in response to what the United States actually acknowledge its nuclear power. In this case, the United States will provide its own security, however, the unstable situation in northeast Asia will continue.
The President of South Korea, moon Jae-In stressed that if the DPRK will renounce further provocations, it can start a dialogue with Pyongyang. There is a danger that the US will make a deal with the DPRK through the head of Japan? If we recognize that the DPRK is a nuclear power, it will seriously change the balance of power and security in the world.