Competition between the US and Iran in Syria undermines the role of Russia?

In Syria the war continues between the US and Russia. Moscow’s threats ended with her return to agreement with Washington on the coordination of actions in Syrian airspace. Russia does not hold a grudge against the International coalition because of the downed su-22. Most of all, she is concerned that the leadership of the Coalition warns of its land or air operations and does not want to coordinate their actions, that is, they ignore the interests of Russia. However, despite this, the United States and Russia have repeatedly expressed readiness to fight the Islamic state (banned in Russia — approx. ed.). Between Russia and the International coalition often occur collision. Their number increases with the approach of the day of the liberation of the cities of Raqqa and Mosul, and also due to the more active participation of the President of the United States Donald trump in the region, from Yemen to the Western border of Iraq, and the southern and Eastern borders of the Levant.

He promised that there will be no new wars in the middle East. And, also, as the Kremlin announced that the war in Syria must be stopped. Trump is racing in Geneva and Astana to confirm the need to complete the war in Syria. It seeks to align the controls to reduce tensions in the region. But the worsening confrontation between Iran and the United States violates the plans of trump at the end of the war in Syria. So he tightened the rhetoric, after government forces and allied armed groups continued promotion database of At-TANF on the border of a strategic triangle with Jordan and Iraq despite air force strikes of the international coalition headed by the USA. He said that he doesn’t want Damascus or Tehran played by their own rules or have moved their base. This triggered the launching of missiles from ships of the Navy of the United States, stationed in the Mediterranean, and the re-deployment of missile batteries.

The conflict will continue as long as Syria is an arena for a race for power. And this race can lead to a long war with ISIS, and prolong the crisis in the Levant even after the elimination of the terrorist organization. Russia is struggling to stop the fighting, promoting the idea of creating “zones of de-escalation”. It is assumed that the Turkish military will be placed in the region of Idlib, the Iranian military in the surrounding areas of Damascus, and the American and Jordanian — in the southern region of Daraa, which confirms a press-the Secretary of President Erdogan, Ibrahim Kalin. Of course, this map on the distribution of influence is not yet final. At this moment it is necessary to resolve the conflict in raqqa and to overcome the legacy of LIH in General. President trump closed the channel of dialogue with Tehran and has granted the Coalition leeway in the region to confront the expansion of Iranian influence. However, he has not presented any strategy to achieve this goal, such as the fight against terrorism. The current US administration unlike the previous one, implements the plan to combat ISIS. But it does not answer questions about the future of Syria and the role of Russia and Iran in the future of this country. Approaching victory in the liberation “of the capital of the Caliphate.” The Syrian President against the division of the country, but he wants to liberate Raqqa to confirm the legitimacy of his regime and its ability to fight terrorism. His ally Iran would like to participate in the liberation of Raqqa, to strengthen its presence in the region and to show their abilities and power. And Turkey wants to establish its presence by separating the Kurdish areas.


© Ministry of defence Rfsuny de-escalation in Syria

The Minister of foreign Affairs of Russia Sergey Lavrov noted that this “competition” for influence over the Syrian territory and airspace is quite difficult for the two big players, Russia and America who want to resolve the crisis alone. The regional forces are not waiting for the results of the debates in Congress or other administrative authorities with respect to future strategy. USA do not stop the consequences of the wars in the region and they are determined to fight ISIS. They call on other forces to accelerate the pace of confrontation with Iran for the decisive battle for the future interests of the United States, their relationship and the role of its allies in the region. These forces believe that the lack of strategy will allow them to establish control over much of Syrian territory as it is today. There is no doubt that government forces and Iran are making progress in many areas at the expense of opposition groups. They seek to destroy the project on creation of “zones of de-escalation”. Tehran not only ballistic missiles fired in the area of Deir ez-Zor, but also began to build a base near Palmyra, which includes airfields to launch drone and the ground control center. Iran and the Syrian government wants to destroy the mutual understanding between Moscow and Washington, which they reached on the long-term truce and the creation of “zones of de-escalation”, which can later become areas in a Federal system. On the other hand Turkey is threatening to hit Afrino, and thereby undermine the dream of Kurdish self-government after the Pentagon said it would continue to supply weapons to the Kurds, even after the battle for Raqqa.

Among these different agendas, it is important that the administration of the President of trump has no strategy against its opponents in Syria. They have their own vision and its own agenda. The increase in the number of military in the East and in the North of the country will not tip the scales toward the United States in the conflict and will not exclude the victory of their opponents in the end. Tens of thousands of soldiers invading Iraq, failed to impose the American political plan for Iraq. Prior to this, the United States and its allies have achieved success in the war in Afghanistan after the overthrow of the Taliban regime and the dispersal of the leaders of “al-Qaeda”. However, some supporters of the US administration believe that U.S. participation in the Iraqi and Syrian conflict sooner or later lead to the transformation of military operations in a complex and expensive project, just as it happened in Afghanistan during the Soviet occupation. But it is still too early to talk about the fate of the war for influence and a section of Syrian territory. Currently the Iranians living on both sides of the Syrian-Iraqi border, despite the fact that Washington demanded that Baghdad remove the forces of “forces of the people’s mobilization” outside the borders and provide security to the legitimate forces, composed of border guards and the army. Iran has made a missile attack on the Deir ezzor district of Al-TANF to show their strength and power. Government forces in Damascus closer to regaining control of the border towns on the southern front with Jordan. Thus, Iran is the most powerful player in the Syrian and Iraqi theater of operations. But not superior to the United States and Russia on the power of their military arsenals. This is manifested in the political arena, where the constantly changing balance of power. For example, Moscow is taking part in negotiations on conflict settlement in Astana and Geneva. Should be added the extension of Iranian power in the region. Iran also is not a developed country with a solid and strong economy. He faces considerable resistance from Yemen to Syria. So to predict the course of the conflict impossible.


© AP Photo, Sergei GritsУчастники talks in Astana

Iran is opposed to Turkey, which poses a threat to Kurdish gains in northeast Syria, especially if she abandon Americans in favor of NATO. Their current goals include obtaining regular information on the supply of arms to the Democratic forces of Syria, as well as the desire to resume an armed struggle with them after the elimination of ISIS. Despite this, the government of President Erdogan has a wide selection. If Turkey dare to carry out their plans for the Kurds, they will need to open several fronts and lead large-scale battles in all regions in which there are forces of the PKK and its affiliates. Namely, in areas such as Northern Syria and Sinjar, as well as Diyarbakir province and other areas inhabited by Kurds. In addition, the prolongation of the war in raqqa, which we see today, the Democratic Union to strengthen its cooperation with the Americans and strengthen their presence in the Kurdish regions. Turkey takes this web of relationships, which allows it to have a few options in case the property trump to change the course in relation to it. The response of its opponents, it may be the revival of cooperation with the regime in Damascus, as happened in Aleppo, where he was exiled opposition groups. In other parts of Syria the opposition forces abandoned their positions in favor of Damascus and his allies.


© RIA Novosti, Sergey Mamontov | go to Photobacterium Bashar Assad during a meeting with Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin in Damascus


In light of these facts, it is impossible to talk about resolving the situation or in the capital or in Geneva. The opposition and its allies at the negotiating table are betting on forcing President Assad to make concessions after its sphere of influence will weaken and decrease. Who can refuse this system? Isn’t it enough what has been achieved, the Russian and Iranian military? Isn’t it enough that the President of France Emmanuel macron sees no legitimate alternatives to the regime, so Assad’s departure is no longer a priority, unlike the fight against ISIS. Will the solution after the war and after the manifestation of its consequences? The crisis will not end through mutual understanding between America and Russia, as everyone expects. Each side in Syria is an active and serious player who builds their own plans. And there are no fixed rules for the control of this game.