In Ukraine will jump the dollar: the experts identified the TOP 5 risks for the hryvnia

Selling rate of non-cash dollar in Ukraine in may fell 1% to of 26.32 UAH, cash – by 0.7% to 26.36 UAH. Such data “Today” provided Analytics GK Forex club.

“Measures to control for market liberalization contributed to the decline in the share of shadow market, and shifting operations on the interbank market. Seasonal factors and local currency inflows supported the hryvnia” – said the expert.

FORECAST. According to analysts, the hryvnia exchange rate in the cash market in June may be in the range of 26 to 27.2 UAH per dollar. In the case of a negative scenario associated with external risk, the rate may go higher in the price range of 27.2 – 28 UAH per dollar. But for this to be a strong driver, which would have blocked the current proposal, experts say.

Seasonal factors supporting the hryvnia since February, exhausted, specialists say. Go “down” effects from international loans and local currency inflows against the background of the Eurovision song contest and ice hockey championship. Stabiliziruemost the hryvnia at current levels.

“Usually in may-Jun the hryvnia reaches local maxima, then resumes devaluation. Likely, this trend will repeat itself, because external factors are negative, and form risks for the national currency”, – experts say.

Analysts say such risks for the Ukrainian currency:

  • Trends in world commodity markets, which will be implemented gradually. Peak levels of prices for the main export commodity groups peaked in late February – early March. Therefore, the contracts for the second quarter only partially took into account these price levels, and, respectively, until June will still have an impact. In anticipation of the reduction of foreign inflows, the market will be under pressure.
  • Blockade ORDO and “nationalization” of enterprises on non-government controlled areas. Associated with the fall in the industry will impact on exports and the inflow of currency into the country.
  • Adverse weather in may led to widespread losses of fruit crops, which will affect the drop processing, and increased imports of these products.
  • Important markers of future cooperation with the IMF, land and pension reforms – while not moving, which does not allow to count on a resumption of lending.
  • With the beginning of the holiday season and visa-free regime, locally will increase the demand for currency for recreation and travel that can put pressure on the market, in the case of supply reduction.
  • According to experts, to keep the hryvnia from falling when it is low business activity in the summer. In the case of land reform we can expect the inflow of foreign currency from residents. Economic revitalization of market participants will facilitate a visa-free regime.

    “Global risks reserves, the Asian region, due to the missile and nuclear tests of North Korea that could destabilize the leading economic areas of the world – Japan, China, South Korea and lead to a sharp change in market conditions. Falling prices for raw materials will entail the devaluation of world currencies, including hryvnia,” – said a senior analyst at GK Forex club Andrey Shevchishin.

    The average selling rate of cash Euro, according to forecasts expeto in Ukraine in June can vary in the range of 28.6 and 29.9 UAH. The main influence on the dynamics of the Euro will provide macroeconomic indicators, as well as the results of early election in the UK. The range of fluctuations of the selling rate of cash ruble in June can range 0,45 – 0,48 UAH.