Expectations of industrial enterprises
In the second quarter of 2017, the business confidence indicator in industry decreased compared to the first quarter of one percentage point (PP) and the balance of responses is (-6%); in processing industry it increased by the same 1 p. p. and also is (-6%).
The business climate indicator in industry decreased compared to the first quarter of 1 PP and 1%, in processing industry it has not changed and is also 1%.
Changed are your expectations for January-March 2017?, % of respondents
Increased
Not changed
Decreased
The volume of production
28
39
33
The volume of orders for production
19
53
28
Source: State Statistics Committee
All the ingredients for the calculation of the indicators have the following values of seasonally adjusted balances of:
- assessment of the current volume of orders for production (demand) in the industry is (-32%), processing industry (-36%);
- the expectations regarding production volume in April-June 2017 in the industry is 8%, in processing industry – 11%;
- assessment of the current volume of stocks of finished products in industry (-7%), processing industry (-8%);
- estimation of production volume for January-March in industry (-5%), processing industry (-7%);
- assessment of the current volume of foreign orders for manufacturing products (export demand) in the industry is (-23%), in manufacturing – (-27%).
How, in your opinion, will change expectations in the April-June 2017?, % of respondents
Increase
Will not change
Reduced
The volume of production
38
44
18
The number of employees
13
74
12
The selling prices of the products
33
62
4
Source: State Statistics Committee
The results of the survey of industrial enterprises revealed the following expectations of respondents regarding the condition of their business activity for the second quarter compared to the previous quarter:
- the increase in selling prices for products;
- the decrease in the number of employees in enterprises;
- reducing the influence of such limiting production factor, as a lack of demand and the simultaneous increase in the influence of such factors as shortage of raw materials and equipment;
- an increase of 1.2 percentage points capacity utilization, which is on average 65.5 per cent;
- supply of orders, as in the first quarter – an average of 4 months of work.
Respondents also expect an increase in the volume of capital investment in 2017 compared with 2016.
What is holding up production?, % of respondents
IV sq 2016
The first quarter of 2017
II sq 2017
Insufficient demand
44
42
40
Labor shortages
6
7
8
Shortage of raw materials, equipment
11
12
13
Financial constraints
38
37
36
Nothing is held back
15
17
16
Source: State Statistics Committee
Official statistics, in turn, shows that despite the fact that in the first quarter marked a significant increase in production volumes for a number of major industrial groups, a large “SAG” in the energy industry have reduced the production index in General to 99.3%
The index of output by main industrial groups, %
I sq 2017 to 2016
2016 to 2015
2015 to 2014
The industry on the whole
99,3
102,4
86,6
the goods of intermediate consumption
97,8
102,1
90,3
investment products
106,6
101,2
84,6
consumer goods short-term use
104,2
103,9
88,6
consumer durable goods
Is 120.2
98,6
80,5
energy
Of 94.4
102,4
81,5
Expectations of construction companies
In the second quarter, the business confidence indicator in construction increased compared with the first quarter by 2 percentage points and amounts to (-25%), that is, the sentiment remained largely negative.
Components for the calculation of this indicator have negative values of seasonally adjusted balances of:
- assessment of the current volume of orders is (-49%);
- expectations regarding changes in the number of employees in April-June (-1%).
How, in your opinion, will change expectations in the April-June 2017, % of respondents
Increase
Will not change
Reduced
The number of employees
19
66
14
The price of the work
41
55
3
The results of the survey of construction enterprises revealed the following expectations regarding the condition of their business activity in the second quarter compared to the previous quarter:
- rising prices for the work performed by construction enterprises;
- reduce the impact of such restraining construction activity factors as adverse weather conditions;
- the increase in the level of orders for construction work, which on average is 5 months compared with 4.5 in the first quarter
Official statistics show that in the first quarter significantly increased in all sectors of construction.
Indices of construction products, %
I sq 2017 to 2016
2016 to 2015
2015 to 2014
The construction of all
119,4
113,1
85,1
Building
124,4
115,2
88,9
residential
Is 123.4
113,0
96,5
non-residential
125,8
117,4
82,2
Engineering structures
Of 113.2
111
81,5
Residential real estate in 2016 was commissioned in the volume, which is the record for the last five years.
The commissioning of housing in Ukraine
Thousand. sq. m total area
The previous year, %
2012
10016
114
2013
10254
102,4
2014
9741
95
2015
11044
Of 113.4
2016
9367
84,8
Expectations of retailers
In the second quarter of 2017, the business confidence indicator in retail trade increased in comparison with the first quarter by 4 percentage points and is 3%. Components for the calculation of this indicator have the following meanings balances: sales volume (turnover) in January-March (-5%), and the expectations on this indicator in the second quarter is 5%; evaluation of current inventory levels is (-8%).
The results of the survey of retailers revealed the following expectations regarding the condition of their business activity in the second quarter compared to the previous quarter:
- – increase in volume of orders from suppliers of goods (in the last quarter expected a decline in orders);
- – the slowdown in reducing the number of employees in enterprises;
- – rising prices of goods in retail trade (these expectations correlate with the rate of inflation).
Volume indices of retail trade turnover (in comparable prices), %
2016 to 2015
2015 to 2014
104
80,2
Such expectations are reinforced by statistics showing that in January-April retail trade turnover in annual terms and in comparable prices increased by 5.8%, and in April increased by 6.1%.
How, in your opinion, will change expectations in the April-June 2017, % of respondents
Increase
Will not change
Reduced
The volume of orders from suppliers of goods
29
45
25
Sales
34
36
29
The number of employees
7
80
12
Commodity prices
49
47
3
Expectations of agricultural enterprises
The results of the survey of agricultural enterprises identified the following expectations regarding the condition of their business activity in the second quarter compared to the previous quarter:
- the increase in production volumes of agricultural enterprises;
- the slowdown in the growth of prices for agricultural products;
- the increase in the number of employees in enterprises;
- reducing the impact of such constraining agricultural activity to factors like adverse weather conditions and financial constraints.
How, in your opinion, will change expectations in the April-June 2017?, % of respondents
Increase
Will not change
Reduced
The volume of production
26
56
18
Prices for the company’s products
32
53
15
The number of employees
36
58
5
The index of agricultural production in General, in January-April totaled 99.7 percent, the same rate and for livestock. The strong decline in the industry was in January, but now the volume of production exceed last year’s by 1-2%.
The production of major livestock products, % to the previous year
Meat
Milk
Eggs
2015
98,4
95,4
85,7
2016
100
97,8
90
2017, Jan-APR
98,9
99,4
100,9
Crop until the state statistics service provides data for the current year, there are only adjusted summary statistics for 2016
Production of major crops, % to the previous year
Grains and legumes
Sugar beet
Sunflower seeds
Potatoes
Vegetables
2015
94,2
65,7
110,3
88
95,6
2016
109,7
134,3
121,7
104,4
102,2
The current amount of stocks of finished products sufficient I think 74% (last quarter it was 81%), low – 13% (10%) and 13% (8%) there are no reserves. These figures indicate that the warehouse cleans, perhaps this is partly due to seasonal factors.
With regard to hopes for exports, while they realized little (although the share of enterprises which have no export has been steadily decreasing). However, the situation with exports to the EU slightly better than outside it.
How has the volume of sales on external markets in January-March, 2017.?, % of respondents
Increased
Not changed
Decreased
There is no export
Within the EU
7
17
7
69
Outside the EU
5
14
5
76
The expectations of the enterprises of sphere of services
In the second quarter and the business confidence indicator in services increased in comparison with the first quarter of 7 percentage points is (-8%). Components for the calculation of this indicator have the following meanings balances: business situation in January-March 2017. – (-15%); relative demand for services for January-March 2017. – (-10%), and the expectations on this indicator in the second quarter of 2017 is 1%.
How expectations have changed for January-March 2017, % of respondents
Increased
Not changed
Decreased
The volume of realization of services
14
61
24
The number of employees
14
62
24
The results of the survey of providers revealed the following expectations regarding business activity in the second quarter compared to the previous quarter:
- the increase in the number of employees in enterprises;
- the growth of prices for services of the enterprises of sphere of services;
- reducing the impact on the operation of enterprises of such a deterrent as financial restrictions;
- an increase of 0.6 p. p. capacity utilization enterprises, which on average is 81%.
How, in your opinion, will change expectations in the April-June 2017, % of respondents
Increase
Will not change
Reduced
The demand for services
22
57
21
The number of employees
13
75
12
Prices for services
26
70
3
