On the horizon, nothing heralds the return of the time when in Europe was a good place to sleep and waking up in the morning, be sure that in the US, nothing has changed.
The unpredictability is reduced, if you look to the East. Russia does not surprise as often as it did the last time, the United States, but instability in the country is stronger and, consequently, unforeseen events may be more severe.
A small European country like Finland, which is located between two unpredictable States, we have to make great efforts to clearly define its position on the political map, both for themselves and for others.
This week in Finland there has been controversy about whether there are between the President and Parliament disagreements over security policy. Public views and positions differ, but this is not the most important thing. The most important was the General and the actual performance of an existing environment from the point of view of security policy.
Overall assessment of the situation they could find in the latest reports on defense and security, but in a few months it is already outdated. The situation around Europe has become increasingly complex, while in Western Europe itself it is somewhat clearer.
On the morning of may 10 in Europe has not yet realized that might follow the decision of the President of Donald trump (Donald Trump) about the dismissal of FBI Director James Komi (James Comey).
The consequences of this dismissal affect not only internal, but also largely on US foreign policy.
Even the most simple description of what happened is questionable.
Trump fired the head of the FBI, engaged in during the election campaign the Russian issues. In its decision it was guided by the recommendations of the head of the Ministry of justice of Jeff and Roman sessions (Jeff Sessions).
Trump obviously have not attach importance to the fact that the official reason for the dismissal is part of Komi in hacking e-mail, Hillary Clinton (Hillary Clinton) is completely implausible.
We are talking about lying, shameless audacity which paralyzes and causes opponents to become numb from surprise.
The use of such methods is expensive.
The first victim began to grow hope for the continuity of US foreign policy, despite the actions of trump.
Vice-President Mike Pence (Mike Pence), Secretary of defense James Mattis (James Mattis), the Minister of foreign policy Rex Tillerson (Rex Tillerson) and adviser on national security Herberg Raymond McMaster (Herbert Raymond McMaster) — an impressive group of people, ensuring the execution of international obligations of the United States.
All key person policies trump, with the exception of Pens, even more than Komi, the probability can be dismissed.
Nothing guarantees continuity, since everything depends on the actions of trump.
As a counterweight to the unpredictability of the trump was a strong American institutions, which are in Russia. Congress and the Department of justice mark the boundaries of presidential actions — both at the level of the Federal state and at the state level. Officials are generally competent enough.
The resignation of the Komi Republic continues to undermine faith in public institutions.
The fact that Donald trump in the United States and Vladimir Putin in Russia is so unpredictable and weaken the institutions, is a problem for all of Europe.
In addition, both countries are prejudiced against international unions and promote bilateral relations in which they can dictate terms.
A little weird, but the development of a United Europe has gone in the other direction.
The nationalists win the election. After the British exit from the EU the remaining 27 member countries are able to make joint decisions.
The situation would be very grim if Western Europe has embarked on the path of nationalism promoted by Putin and trump. He wouldn’t be so easy to roll.
Now, despite the unpredictability of the East and West, Finland and other Western countries can strengthen common institutions. In addition to the EU and NATO is still in the system.
Strong common institutions — the best support to those who cooperate with the United States and maintains ties with Russia.