Imagine the following scenario. In several Russian cities explode a bomb planted by Islamic terrorists (or call them terrorists). This causes a wave of protests from anti-Islamic and anti-immigrant slogans, they are joined by football fans and radical nationalist groups. Protests degenerated into riots, the persecution of migrant workers from the Caucasus and Central Asia. In the end riot takes control of the situation, but from Moscow, St. Petersburg and other Russian cities run thousands of migrants working there, which include jihadists, supporters of al-Qaeda or ISIS (banned in Russia organization — approx. ed.) who fought in Syria and Iraq, and then returned to Russia or went to Ukraine. The wave of refugees rolled across the Ukrainian territory and reaches the border with Poland. In another scenario (or simultaneously with the first) is the destabilization of the situation in post-Soviet Central Asian republics. The success or failure of attempts to overthrow one of the local dictators ends with a bloody repression or civil war. This becomes the impetus for a mass Exodus to Russia and there are Russian special services directed the human flow through Ukraine towards the Polish border.
In the second variant of the first stage of the Russian attack on Poland and Europe using a “weapon D” in Ukraine, escalating military action that makes hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians to go to the Polish border. As it was with the Syrians, snaking their way from Turkey to Europe, they are joined by other migrants. In this case, residents of the Central Asian republics, treated Russian agents, or terrorists-jihadists. Among all migrants that in 2015, headed to Europe, the Syrians was only 40%, many called themselves “Syrian refugees”, being dark-skinned Africans.
The presented scenario is purely hypothetical, however, about the possibility of its implementation is demonstrated by the fact that its elements have already become reality, although under different circumstances, in a different scale and not complex. The jihadists already arranged the terrorist attacks in Russia, against the spread of Islamic extremism in this country, this phenomenon will only increase. Protests against migrants have escalated into riots and resulted in killings of migrant workers from the Caucasus or Central Asia. For example, in 2010 at the Manege square in Moscow.
To use waves of migrants to destabilize Europe and put pressure on her to achieve their political objectives addressed in turn, in 2015, Turkey. If the Turkish special services were able to transfer the migrants on the coast of the Aegean sea and to help them find the boat to be transported to Europe, Russia too will be able to stimulate this human stream. At the same time it is difficult to expect that Ukraine will overcome the corruption and can so tightly control the border to prevent illegal crossing and trafficking Ukrainian passports. However, citizens of the Russian Federation and former Soviet republics such as Uzbekistan or Tajikistan, can enter Ukraine without visas.
Stimulation of influx of refugees or migrants to the Polish border is only the first part of the plan. The second stage is provoking the unrest in Poland. Imagine the following situation. On the Polish-Ukrainian border accumulate several hundreds of thousands of refugees and migrants, which does not pass the Polish border service. People begin to act aggressively, as it was on the border with Hungary, trying to break through. At the same time is blocked the work of the Polish-Ukrainian border crossings, leading to protests from Ukrainians who want to legally get to Poland. As a result, the Polish border clashes begin between Ukrainians and migrants from Central Asia.
There appear the representatives of the nationalist groups that want to close the border, using anti-Islamic, anti-immigrant and Ukrainian slogans. At the same time there are going to those who call to allow refugees to join left-wing organization anti-Russian. They insist that the charges of migrants in commitment to jihadism is an invention of the Russian special services. Russian agents can do to nurture these sentiments, desiring that on the border, riots broke out. Anti-Russian slogans will be in the hands of Russia, which is interested to send their Islamists to Poland. Of course, she won’t admit it and will at the official level to convince the poles not to accept the jihadists, hoping to achieve the opposite effect.
Speaking about this stage, it is necessary to remember about the mini-crisis at the railway station in Brest, Belarus. Accumulated there is a group of several hundred Chechens and Tajiks trying to get into Poland. The situation is made active, on the one hand, proimmigrant left-wing organizations and anti-Russian circles (who deny that migrants from Chechnya can be dangerous), and on the other other right-wing movements, which are louder oppose assistance for any refugees (not only people against whom some media have imposed such a name, but the real refugees who are eligible for this status). All this can be checked before a much larger crisis.
The third stage of the attack on Poland using a “weapon D” will provoke (including foreign intelligence agencies) clashes between ultra & organizations and nationalists on the Polish side of the border. During these clashes, the probable terrorist attacks at the border with Ukraine and the attack on the Polish objects on the Ukrainian territory. Can begin with incidents fire Polish border or attempted to smuggle from the Ukraine into Poland a weapon to commit any sabotage. The main goal of this step is to create chaos that will lead to the storming of the borders that the Polish leadership will have to answer with force. This, in turn, compromise the Poland and Ukraine in Europe, and the speeches of the critics and supporters of the actions of the Polish authorities will start including in our country. In the context of the last stage such a provocation should be recalled that in March this year the Polish Consulate in Lutsk came under fire from a grenade launcher. The investigation continues, the attackers are still not installed.
A factor that may contribute to the implementation of the discussed scenario in life, — the abolition of visas for Ukrainians. I don’t want to criticize this move, but only pay attention to the possible problems that, in all probability, will arise in a particular context. To travel without visas only for holders of biometric passports, but this does not exclude the possibility that Russian intelligence agencies use the visa-free regime for their own purposes. It at least would be a fact that the wave of migrants will join Pro-Russian inhabitants of Ukraine (for example, from the territories which are under control of separatists), to provoke unrest on both sides of the border.
The Polish authorities should prepare for this development, however, it is already clear that all actions aimed at tightening migration policies and the strengthening of control on the Eastern borders rebuffed. An example would be criticism of the draft order of the Ministry of internal Affairs of filtration camps for migrants and refugees in case of a crisis situation. It should be noted that in Iraq (as in the Kurdish and government territories) is very aggressive migrants, which gives a great effect, allowing you to identify the terrorists.
© RIA Novosti, Andrei Stenin | go to fotobesplatnoe camp for illegal migrants in Moscow
The last aspect of the presented scenario, the interests of Russia. It seeks not only to destabilize the situation in Poland, and indirectly in Europe, but also to neutralize the Muslim demographic bomb on its territory. In 1989, the Russian population was 146,8 million inhabitants, by 2010 it had reduced to 142.9 million. At some of the most pessimistic forecasts, in 2050 Russia’s population will decline to 98 million people. Thus, according to the official census, in 1989 the Russian population of 11.8 million ethnic Muslims (citizens of Russia), and in 2010 their number reached 14 million. In 1989, Russians constituted 81.5% of the population (120 million), in 2010 — 80,9% (111 million) in this period, the number of Chechens grew from 899 000 to 1.4 million, and Bashkirs — from 1.34 million to 1.67. In 1989-2010 years has increased the number of only nine Nations, six of which are Muslim (Chechens, Avars, Ingush, Kumyks, Lezgins, Dargins). 9 of 12 national groups, the average age is less than 30 years, are traditionally Muslim. Meanwhile, the average age of the Russian population is 37.6 years.
Since 2009, statistics show that the number of inhabitants of Russia began to increase, however, this increase is negligible. In addition, questions remain whether improvement with the acquisition of Russian citizenship by immigrants from the Central Asian republics. According to rough estimates, the number of potential workers is enormous: it’s 10-12 million people, mostly Muslims. In one 2014 in Russia came 578 500 legal immigrants, including 130 Uzbeks 900, 59 000 54 600 Kazakhs and Tajiks. Migrants are concentrated in large cities. In 2013 in Moscow there were 3.3 million, in St. Petersburg — 2,5.
This situation leads to the fact that some Russians not only don’t want to keep Chechnya by force in the country, but I dream to break free. On the other hand, it is much easier to get rid of migrants, although their departure could cripple the life of Moscow or St. Petersburg, where visitors have long held the majority of jobs in the municipal sector.
The aging of the Russian population leads to the fact that Russia (like Germany) needs migrants. Meanwhile they have already started to go further in Europe. In January 2015, the number of foreigners in the Russian Federation compared to July 2014 decreased by one million. At the same time, the country began to leave the citizens of these former Soviet republics like Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. This was due to the devaluation of the ruble in Russia became unprofitable. Despite the fact that in their homeland don’t have a job, these people will be easily persuaded to March to the West. Including through Poland.