Development scenarios of the situation in the East of Ukraine
Despite the declared truce, on Easter holidays at the Donbass continued shelling.
Since the beginning of the antiterrorist operation killed more than 2.6 thousand Ukrainian military, almost 10 thousand Ukrainian servicemen got wounds.
The resolution of the conflict in the Donbass Ukraine to move and failed.
Корреспондент.net picked up the latest proposal for the settlement of the situation in the Donbas.
To Follow The Minsk
The Minsk agreements will soon be three years, but they have not earned. However, the Western partners of Ukraine, like a mantra, repeating the words about the need to fulfill the Minsk agreements.
US Ambassador to Ukraine, Marie Yovanovitch considers that if Ukraine will give up the Minsk agreements and will be released from the negotiation process, she may lose the support of Western partners.
“If we step away from Minsk, when I say “we” I think it is important that the international community has rallied around Ukraine… very good partners in this negotiation process. I think that Ukraine will remain without support of Western partners, if we come out of this negotiation process,” said Jovanovic.
She also noted that the Minsk agreement is very unpopular in Ukraine, however, they contain all the essential aspects of conflict resolution as a political part and the part that relates to security, and in case of refusal of the Minsk agreements will need to look for an alternative process.
U.S. Secretary of state Rex Tillerson in conversation with Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko also noted the importance of implementing the Minsk agreements for Donbass.
Tillerson at a meeting with Minister of foreign Affairs of Russia Sergey Lavrov, urged Russia to “fulfil its commitments under the Minsk agreements and work towards de-escalation of violence in Ukraine”.
The law on occupied territories
In the Verkhovna Rada faction “Samopomich” initiated bill “On the temporarily occupied territory of Ukraine”.
The bill proposed to determine the date of occupation, to prohibit the holding of elections and referendum in that territory. To stop social payments to the temporarily occupied territories and the supply of electricity.
The project also provided for the development of activities for the reintegration of residents, “which for a long time were under the influence of Russian weapons, but no less murderous propaganda machine, to life in a free civil society in Ukraine”.
However, local elections in these areas could be carried out only “after the improvement of the material conditions of the people.”
In addition, the authors of the project propose to establish a Commission understanding, which will include on an equal footing influential moral authorities of the country and the legitimate representatives of residents of the territories, liberated from the temporary occupation.
“The Commission would have the authority to apply the prohibition to occupy certain positions, to engage in certain activities in respect of persons who have implemented occupation policy of the Russian Federation directly, through the occupation authorities or through other illegal formation, spread in society the hatred of Ukraine and have incited to promote the occupation.”
The developers of the bill believed that its adoption will strengthen the international legal position of Ukraine, however, international organizations had a different opinion.
The UN Agency for refugees and the Council of Europe believe that the adoption of this bill will have negative consequences for the protection of human rights, freedom of movement and delivery of humanitarian assistance to those in need.
The special representative of the Secretary-General of the Council of Europe in Ukraine Regis Beria noted that the bill violates provisions of the PACE Resolution and some of its provisions contradict the provisions of the Minsk agreements, and therefore should be revised.
XIE also believes that depriving citizens of basic political rights indefinitely is a threat to basic European democratic principles.
The representative of the Council of Europe noted that the proposed bill contradicts the Constitution of Ukraine, the European Convention for the protection of human rights, the European social Charter, and does not lie in the same plane with the approach defined by the government of Ukraine, which adopted the action plan on reintegration of the population of uncontrolled territories.
In this regard, the Council of Europe strongly recommends not to make this document into a sessional hall of Parliament without thorough study.
In the end, the draft law was not approved even by the relevant Committee.
Wall
The former head of the Odessa regional state administration, Mikheil Saakashvili offers to dissociate itself from the temporarily occupied Donbas wall.
“I have to build a big wall (not yatsenyukovsky, and the present), temporarily retreating from the occupied part of Donbass, focusing on the rest of Ukraine,” — says Saakashvili.
“We will definitely be back the occupied territories after tackle corruption and begin rapid development. But to get them back faster, changes must first take place in Kiev”, — stated the politician.
Saakashvili said that Ukraine needs to build a strong and effective government and then the inhabitants of the occupied territory “with their hands to smash the wall like the East Germans”.
At the same time he stressed that Ukraine needs to win a hybrid war in Russia, and for this to create a successful country with a strong army.
Offensive
The Secretary of national security and defense of Ukraine Oleksandr Turchynov believes that Ukraine has no other alternative but to win.
“Last year was the first when we did not surrender a single meter of land, but rather bought dozens of kilometers… Our task is meter by meter, mile after mile, while minimizing losses, to move to the East. The main thing — not to rush the border,” Turchynov flaunts.
The Director of the National Institute for strategic studies, academician, Advisor to the President of Ukraine Vladimir Gorbulin believes that Russia will not agree to the annexation of certain regions of Donetsk and Lugansk regions.
“Today, the Russian hung up the Donbass, as a stone on the neck of Ukraine, to take it completely part of the Russian Federation (may not), they have enough of the Crimea, in order to really feel their economic situation,” said said. “I don’t think it can happen, although there is a desire to have individual leaders in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions, and to take Donbass into its own neck — it’s unlikely she (Russia) will go for it,” said said.
