Giving the order to fire at a Syrian airbase, Donald trump was on the night of 6 to 7 April, the President of the United States, commander in chief of the American army. Approach to decision-making about the attacks and their aftermath will leave its imprint on all its mandate.
Some observers point to the contradiction between this intervention and made from trump during the campaign statements condemning military adventures in the middle East outside of combat “Islamic state” (banned in Russia as a terrorist organization — approx.ed.). Not to say that these comments are incorrect, they are just not on.
In addition, the President strongly criticized the behavior of his predecessor in the region. And this could relate to the sudden failure of Barack Obama from military intervention after the breach by the forces of Bashar al-Assad’s red line of chemical weapons use in August 2013. When on 4 April appeared similar circumstances with another chemical attack, trump took the opportunity to show that it would not behave like Obama. It is stressed after the attacks of the English-language newspaper in Saudi Arabia with the headline “Yes HE Can” (“Yes”), thereby altering the pre-election slogan of Obama (Yes we can — Yes we can). Trump had a choice among several options, and he stayed on the fact, which enabled him to settle political scores.
In addition, the unilateral nature of the impact is fully consistent with the manifest preferences trump candidate. The choice of method and time impact of the North Korean factor. April 2 (that is, four days before arrival in the US, Chinese leader XI Jinping for two days of a chemical attack in Syria) Donald trump said that America will act unilaterally to eliminate the threat from North Korea, if China won’t affect Pyongyang.
The rejection of strikes against Syria would lead one to believe that trump is bluffing on North Korea. However, the decision to attack in the period between the official dinner on 6 April and Breakfast the next day at the residence of the trump in Florida speaks of his intention to make the guest lose face.
China is all this just will not leave, and this is probably the most disturbing consequence of the current crisis. However, it is impossible not to admit that he for the first time since the beginning of the Syrian crisis did not support Russia’s veto in the UN security Council on 12 April. And that is the most close to the government, Chinese media (unprecedented!) warns of North Korea.
Russia in isolation
As for Syria, this limited strike returned to America in the middle of a game, in which it ceded the strategic initiative of Russian diplomacy, and then the army after turning Obama in August 2013. It remains only to understand how it will continue to behave Washington. In addition, the us operation has allowed Turkey to remind Moscow and Tehran that she is not a hostage of rapprochement with Russia. Fire also gave confidence to the partners of the United States in the Persian Gulf in reliability of their obligations despite the fact that Saudi Arabia is faced with strategic failures in countering Iranian influence in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen.
In relation to Russia’s military component will not mean less politics and diplomacy. Established in Syrian airspace “bubble” of the Russian air defense was unable to cope with cruise missiles. The Russian leadership also could not fail to note the extraordinary speed of decision-making and its implementation: America trump can be as “clever” in the strategic plan that Putin’s Russia after the war in Georgia. This will affect the risk calculations of the President of Russia on the borders of NATO, in particular in the Balkans after the accession of Montenegro to NATO.
In any case, all this does not mean that Washington and Moscow doomed to confrontation, despite the current phase of the expression of disagreement. One of the paradoxical sides of the current crisis is that it gives the President of the United States the necessary leeway for dialogue with his Russian counterpart without the fear of automatic suspicion of the connivance of the Putin system. Russia was without any pleasure has to mention his complete isolation in the security Council this week.
The General resolution
Despite fears that inspire the personality of the President of the United States and the unilateral nature of the strikes, American, British and French authorities jointly presented the security Council a draft resolution that received the support of two thirds of the member countries. The Europeans and particularly the French, unable to make from this a conclusion about the possibility of war with ISIS without much ADO with Assad.
The next President of France may have a chance to form a strategic and diplomatic game in which the security Council and the EU will again play their rightful role. It’s better than to settle for the thankless role of those who propose to restore the city, destroyed the Syrian, Russian and Iranian forces.