10 April the head of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) Valery Gontareva the head of the state property Fund of Ukraine Igor Bilous almost simultaneously declared intention to resign. And if the rumors about the impending departure Gontareva hovered in the information space since February, plans Bilous to leave his post came as a surprise.
As told “Today,” political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko, two strong statements in one day became more of a coincidence. However, the expert suggests that Bilous, knowing about the plans Gontareva, could take advantage of around the hype to his statement, the society did not pay much attention.
The analyst Yaroslav Makitra believes that Gontareva and Bilous could be a reluctance to take on a greater portion of the negative that may occur as a result of execution by the national Bank and state property Fund of IMF requirements. Another aspect that influenced such a decision could be made that they both feel psychological pressure because of the attention of anti-corruption bodies to the first persons of the state. Particularly significant in this regard could be criminal proceedings against ousted SFS head of the Roman Nasirov., suspect in koruptivnih actions.
Why they leave
The rumors about the resignation of Valerie Gontareva widened the past few months. Experts talked about the different reasons – from the fulfillment of commitments to the psychological fatigue in a large number of critics in her address, especially because of dissatisfaction with the corporate and banking sector current situation.
“I think one reason, actually, is that it is banal was tired. Morally, psychologically, she’s exhausted this criticism until the insults and even threats. She just wants to move away from it all, relax and return to business”, – said political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko.
However, according to political scientist Taras Berezovets, a desire Gontareva to leave the post of head of the NBU can be regarded as an attempt to avoid responsibility for this difficult situation.
“I think that Gontareva now wants to avoid responsibility for the jump in the exchange rate, the situation in the banking market, which took place in the last time,” he said.
Hontareva recent interview with “UKRINFORM”, said that , as head of the NBU fulfilled its mission. At the same time, commenting on his resignation Gontareva said that he does not consider his decision to go political.
However, in order to Gontareva could really go, her statement must be signed by the President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko and approve by its decision the Verkhovna Rada. According to political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko, if Poroshenko was against her, publicly revealed that she wrote the statement, it would not be. However, the expert admits that the decision to resign Gontareva, could become a kind of demarche, after last week to her house came activists demanding that the head of the NBU left his post. However, said Fesenko, according to the laws of hardware policy – if the President did not want to let Gontareva, he / she would have reported it without any publicity.
However, as a political analyst Yaroslav Makitra, if the decision to replace Gontareva would be finally decided, it would be this week considered by the Parliament.
However, since, previously, it was put to a vote in may, then now, according to the analyst, began the bidding process for the position of head of the NBU. According to Makitry, the process of the resignation of Gontareva may take several months.
“With high probability, the President will sign this statement. But, according to rumors, he promised to let Gontareva after IMF tranche. And now, as I understand it, the question is in agreeing on a successor,” – said Fesenko. According to experts, the Parliament will also support the resignation of Gontareva.
Thus, according to Fesenko, Gontareva is a manifestation of specificity of the personnel policy of the President. “The President has nominated (Gontareva – ed.). According to Bilous, the logic is similar in the sense that he nominated the heads of the state property Fund of Prime Minister (former Prime Minister-the Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk – Ed.) the government and the candidacy of the head of the national Bank nominates the President. Gontareva and the business was associated with Poroshenko in his time, he knew her well. Generally, it to many positions put forward people from business, politics he’s not really trusted. People from the business it is more trusted as professionals, may be more highly valued and their personal qualities”, – said the expert.
The fact that the head of the state property Fund Igor Bilous came to power during the time of the Cabinet of Arseniy Yatsenyuk and stay in it after his retirement, may be indicative of some patronage of the popular front, a political analyst Makitra. However, the expert notes, we cannot say that Bilous was totally dependent on Yatsenyuk.
“The fact that he came into power during Yatsenyuk, and remained in it, can say that a certain protectorate of the “popular front” of it if you were sure. But to say that this is absolutely his man – if it was completely his man, I don’t think he would now resign and raised this question, because there is a clear distribution of spheres of influence and financial flows between the BPP and people’s front, and this can be seen in a number of decisions,” he said.
The reason for his present desire to retire could be the increased attention of law enforcement agencies to the state property Fund or criticism of this Department, said political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko.
“I would not say that the fault of the state property Fund for the failure of the privatization program. Here the reasons are many, unfortunately, different. But criticism of the office too, and very different…Maybe just Bilous decided it was better to quit than to be in the position of the object of derogatory criticism. If he does not see, for example, prospects in order to improve the situation, maybe he decided to leave”, – the expert believes.
The analyst Makitra, in turn, emphasizes – the number of thwarted privatization projects have led to some skepticism about the work of Bilous and that might be one of the reasons for his decision to leave.
“Second – if such a massive sale will take place, one can only imagine the level of abuse that can be with such a sale. It is likely that he just doesn’t want to participate in it, says the Nut, Is to Talk about some systematic and serious reforms with his hand, too,” he adds.
He Bilous said that his team managed to implement the international standards of privatization.
“I am proud that our team was able to make the privatization process in Ukraine more transparent and simple. We have developed the bill will finally translate the privatization process from the economic to the political plane. We started this reform, will continue other”, – he said.
Who will replace them
The candidature of his possible successors Gontareva three months ago and discussed with President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko. According to the head of the regulator, as the new head of the national Bank, she sees not a policy, and professional in banking. Moreover, she proposed several candidates, but their names remain unknown.
Meanwhile, in the information space have already discussed several potential successors to the head of the NBU. According to political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko, among them are the two – Chapter Independent bankers Association of Roman Shpek and Chairman of the Board of JSC “Raiffeisen Bank Aval” Vladimir Lavrenchuk.
However, as I’m sure the ex-Deputy head of the NBU Sergey Yaremenko, while these discussions do not mean anything, becausecandidatura the new head of the national Bank will be selected by the President and can be very unpredictable.
According to Andrew Novak, the appointment of the head of the national Bank – the question is rather political than managerial or economic. The expert does not exclude that Gontareva to replace Poroshenko may “his” man. Moreover, the candidacy of the head of the NBU can be one of the conditions of the IMF, suggests Novak.
“I do not exclude that there is also a tacit condition. Perhaps even with a particular name. So now, including from our donors will be a lot of things depend on this position,” he said.
Thus, according to economic expert Boris Kushniruk, the candidacy of the future head should not be determined by the availability of 10 years of banking experience, as it dictates the Law of Ukraine “On the National Bank of Ukraine”. In his opinion, the NBU should be headed by professional macroeconomists.
See also: the Resignation of Gontareva: the implications and possible successors
As for the successor to Igor Bilous as head of the state property Fund, there is no names of potential successors are not called.
“It is difficult now to decide unambiguously who can replace. Let’s see how to advance further the case for resignation. But obviously, whoever it was, it will be a person agreed upon and the people’s front and the PPB,” – said the scientist Yaroslav Makitra.
The expert notes that this person will be assigned important responsibilities for privatization. According to Makitry, if the privatization process is launched, the new head of the SPF can reach a leading role in Ukrainian politics.