Spring and first summer month, which have in the second quarter of the year, Ukrainians can expect the cost reduction and revenue growth. Reasons — the end of the heating season, the cheapening remnants of last year’s harvest of vegetables and fruits and the increase from may 1, social standards, followed by a small increase in wages. But will have to pay more per kilowatt-hour of electricity, which has risen since March. The experts also promise inflation of 3-5% for the quarter and stable gasoline prices.
THE DOLLAR AND WAGES. Anyone who has the currency reserves don’t leave without extreme need, as finanalytica predict a further weakening of the hryvnia. The only question is how much it will depreciate over the quarter. Thus, the economist Ivan Nikitchenko does not expect significant fluctuations.
“The second quarter is always the most stable, the course will be in the hallway 27-27,5 UAH/$, with a small cameo outputs up beyond it, said Nikitchenko. — Inflation in April-may will also remain unchanged at about 1% per month. Summer is traditionally deflation is expected, therefore, in June the prices will fall by about 1%. The average official salary will increase from 6000 to about 6500 UAH UAH at the end of the quarter (or 8%. — Ed.). And the next tranche of the IMF does not directly affect the growth of the economy, but is a positive factor from the point of view of stability. For Ukraine the next tranche of delay is not yet critical”.
The President Ukranalittsentra Alexander Ohrimenko more pessimistic. In his opinion, the hryvnia to the end of the quarter may fall below 28,5 UAH/$, and inflation will accelerate to 5% for the quarter. The main reason is the policy of the state to collect more taxes and is in no hurry to return the VAT, causing the business to survive will be to lay in the price of the product risks lengthy delays in VAT. Also because of the growth of mentorplace from January to 3200 UAH owners of commercial structures will be forced to pay more than a single social contribution, which also increases the cost of goods and services. “Will increase from 1 may and social standards: this prozhminimuma (from 1544 until 1624 UAH), which now has little effect on the incomes of low-paid, because it is less mentorplace, and the minimum pension — from 1247 to 1312 UAH. All this will push inflation up to 5% for the quarter, the average nominal wage will increase by approximately the same amount, but it concerns not all, but only the most valuable employees,” says Okhrimenko.
“COMMUNAL” AND FOOD. The costs of utility services, despite the appreciated March “current” will be less than in hoopston. The average “communal” cheaper for 1000 UAH due to the fact that people will not have to pay for heat. Savings will be felt primarily families not receiving a subsidy to pay komuslug. Food experts in his forecast of prices, on the contrary, have dispersed. So, Director of the Ukrainian trade Association Igor kishko believes that inflation and the upcoming holidays will have little impact on the cost of food in Torseth.
“The exception is markets and bazaars. There will be an increase, but to what extent, is difficult to say,” added intestine. Director of the Association of retail suppliers Oleksiy Doroshenko believes that little will change the price of meat, which costs 85 UAH/kg or more, is the ceiling for the purse of the average Ukrainian. Eggs short-term will rise for Easter about 10% (+1,5—2 UAH/Dec.), but then the same cheaper. Doroshenko also emphasizes that the cost of vegetables for the holidays is irrelevant and depends on seasonality. “Closer to the summer vegetable stocks in warehouses are exhausted, and this will affect the cost. In General they are cheaper by 10-15%”, — predicts.. That is, if today a kilo of potatoes is worth 6-7 UAH, it will be 5,5—6 UAH.
Fuel: prices will be stable. Despite predictions of weakening of the hryvnia, experts of the oil market do not expect the rise in price of fuel, 80% of which, recall, is imported. The reason is that the global oil market has resumed the trend of declining oil prices due to the fact that OPEC is not going to reduce the volume of its production.
“The physical market of oil waiting for the price reduction to the nearest target to $40/barrel, explained to us the Director of the SEC “Psyche” Sergey Sapegin. — As for the Ukrainian market, we should take into account the increase in demand from farmers and motorists-truckers who ride only in summer season. But will remain a surplus supply of diesel fuel and gasoline. With this in mind, the fuel market is expected to remain stable because of the weakening of the hryvnia will not be able to push fuel prices up, but will not allow to realize the potential of reduction, which now amounts to 47 kop./l for vysokoaktiven, 36 kopecks./l for diesel and 28 liter of liquefied gas. According to data of consulting group “A-95”, a liter of A-95 gasoline cost UAH 24,53, DT — 23,12 gas of 11.15 UAH/liter.