Netherlands — an enviable nation, even from the point of view of Germany. The unemployment rate in the country is 5.4%, economic growth of about 2%, and exports per capita is twice more than in Germany. Statistically the Dutch are 8% richer than the Germans, even ahead of the Germans in the ranking of the world economic forum and are considered to be better prepared for the digital age. That is, the Netherlands—, the exemplary country of the Euro area.
Even if this model country are dissatisfied with their common currency, it is fatal signal for the currency area. The concern is the fact that the Parliament wants to know about it right now. Deputies assigned to conduct a study on the future of the Euro. It is intended to test how the single currency is beneficial to the country and may recommend an exit. The result of the study will be publicly available.
The timing is crucial. Two weeks later, the Dutch will elect a new Parliament. The results of the study will be published only after the election. But the debate has already begun, and as expected, it will provide support to the forces opposed to the Euro.
The results of the elections can jeopardize the stability of Europe
As in Germany, the Netherlands is also not very popular rescue policy of the European Central Bank (ECB). Due to the low interest rate deductions first touched the pensions of the Dutch. Pension from the company, which consists of contributions of employees and employers, is of great importance and therefore became the theme of the campaign.
Within a few weeks of “freedom Party” (PVV) of populist Geert Wilders (Geert Wilders) is leading in the ratings. According to new data, he can count about 26 of the 150 seats, thus more than the head of government mark Rutte (Marl Rutte) of the “people’s party for freedom and democracy” (VVD). Even if Wilders will not get a ruling majority in Parliament, it can significantly confuse the party structure.
“A weak coalition of installed power on the paper can follow the course in support of the EU. But in fact, such an Alliance would act against the EU not to allow the further rise of populists,” said mark wall (mark Wall), chief economist for Europe at Deutsche Bank. It also can jeopardize the stability of the Eurozone.
The markets are already nervous. The Netherlands has long been considered a guarantor of stability, now it has changed dramatically. It shows the so-called “index Nexit” analytical company “building permits”. According to this index, investors estimate the probability of exit of the Netherlands from the Euro area to 4.25%. This is well above long-term average of one per cent. Finally, the Netherlands has always been an excellent student of the Euro zone, a country which almost nothing could discompose.
“I don’t know much about the specific politics of the Netherlands. But if now, due to the structure of Europe and the Euro zone loses patience one of the most tolerant Nations in the world, it is alarming,” says Charles Gabe (Charles Grave), strategist at research company “GK Research”. The situation in the Netherlands reminds him of the UK last summer, before the referendum on Brexia. “The people want sovereignty on one issue: they want to decide which refugees are entitled to remain in the country and what needs to leave”.
In fact, the issue of immigration is one of the determinants in the election campaign. Every third inhabitant of the Netherlands believes that it is extremely important for the future. One gets the impression that the economy is quite superb to the Dutch showed interest in her.
The unemployment rate is as low as in any other EU country except Estonia. Economic growth accelerated sharply. It is connected mainly with the rapidly developing real estate market. Prices recovered after a collapse during the financial crisis, and are, on average, only five percent lower than the 2008 record.
People want to maintain control
It is important for the economic well-being. In the end, two out of three Dutch people have a home, but they owed a lot for him. The citizens are all different, despite the fact that the Netherlands is considered one of the safest countries in the Euro zone, which, when the duty ratio of 60 percent, almost meet the Maastricht criteria. When productivity in the economy as 111%, citizens are so far in debt like no other nation in the country of the currency Union. The Germans, for example, private debt reaches 53%, while the average in the Euro area — 59%.
In addition, the Dutch on top and other controversial figures, such as in population density. Per square kilometre, on average, we have 409 people in Germany — only 232. The share of foreigners is 22%. According to experts, this may also explain why people have so developed the need for control of immigration, and why the EU does not enjoy popularity there.
“Skepticism is not so much the Euro zone, much of the European Union”, says Maximilian, Kunkel (Maksimilian Kunkel), chief strategist of Germany, UBS Wealth Management. His Department determines the investment strategy for a total of $ 2.1 trillion in global assets and does not expect a “Nexit”.
Various opinion polls show that people in Europe mostly have a positive attitude to the single currency. “We weren’t trying specifically to insure against the collapse of the Euro zone. We distribute our assets around the world, and we believe that the diversification of risks of this kind sufficient in order to continue to minimize regional risks and leverage global opportunities.” In the global portfolios of the UBS Europe stocks rated “neutral”. The continent is now experiencing significant economic growth, populism is losing support, Kunkel said.
However, the actors are nervously awaiting the election in mid-March. “The Netherlands has set trends in terms of populism in Europe,” said Carsten Brzeski said (Carsten Brzeski), chief economist at ING Diba.