Secrets of the orders: there will be enough money for war

Recently the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine simultaneously with the President approved the basic indicators of the state defense order for 2017-2019. First defense order was planned for the next three years, and its financial Foundation compared with the year 2016 has increased. At least say in government. How much money will be spent on armed security forces this year, and what they will understood the “Apostrophe”.

How much and where

It is worth noting that the state defense order in 2017 — this is a private document and its content is a state secret. However, the veil of secrecy lifted by the President himself, saying that in 2017 for the development and procurement of new weapons for the armed forces budget will be allocated 9 billion hryvnia. “The defense order is more than modest, in the measurement of international prices and compared to the costs of the aggressor. But quite noticeable to the Ukrainian budget for the Ukrainian taxpayers,” — said Petro Poroshenko. Indeed, the defense contracts of the Russian Federation is much more extensive and according to the Deputy head of the Ministry of defense of Russia in 2017, it will amount to 1.4 trillion rubles.

To understand 9 billion on arms a lot or a little, you should refer to the indicators of the budget of Ukraine in 2017. For the entire power unit this year Parliament has allocated 133 billion. According to the speaker of the Verkhovna Rada Andrei Parubiy, is 5.9 billion more than in 2016. Of these, 64 billion received by the army and only the seventh part of the money will go into service. Last year at APU has been allocated 55,5 billion of them on re was laid to 7.1 billion UAH. It appears that the amount was really more, but with inflation and the rising dollar, has remained at the same level. How you will run the indicators of the defence budget a separate issue. For example, in “Ukroboronprom” by the end of 2016, said that the concern’s enterprises received less funding in the amount of more than 1 billion hryvnia.

What exactly will this money told in the NSDC. It is a modern missile and artillery systems, armored missile boats, unmanned aerial vehicles, armored vehicles, electronic warfare and radar systems, modern means of communication and control, intelligence systems for artillery units, surveillance, targeting and night vision. In addition, the planned modernization of aircraft, helicopters and other military equipment. “Ukroboronprom” already reported that they started production, repair and modernization of 600 pieces of military equipment for the armed forces under the state guarantees. In addition, in the Lviv armored plant has already started production of a new batch of armored vehicles “Dozor-B” for the Ukrainian army.

Experts interviewed by “Apostrophe”, recognize that 9 billion on new equipment this is a negligible amount for a country at war. “Well, what is 9 billion? This “Ukroboronprom” only have to pay enough. In addition, we have no state program of rearmament of the army, respectively no prospects of development of weapons. Defense contracts is a permanent document in which the armaments are estimated in units, high dozens. For example, if we take into service BTR-3 or BTR-4, then at least a year before you need to rearm at least one team, and that 100-150 cars, and we order 10 cars per year. It’s not even up for losses from equipment wear and tear, not to mention the fighting. We launched a whopper of 250 thousand personnel, but still can’t equip”, — told the “Apostrophe” military expert Oleg Zhdanov.

In addition, not the fact that all 9 billion will be spent on new equipment, as stated in the national security Council. “The main question is, what part of this money will be allocated for the further development and implementation of the most modern technological solutions in the APU. And in contrast to the armies of other countries even no posts at the level of Deputy Minister, who would be responsible for innovation and technology” — explains the “Apostrophe” former Deputy defense Minister Admiral Igor kabanenko.

The fact that the APU is more profitable to upgrade old equipment than to buy new, admitted even by the President. “We have become the choice of one “Hold,” or ten deeply modernized and repaired T-64 or T-80. And “Stronghold” is built at least 18 months, and the cycle of deep modernization of T-80 is 2.5 months. Thus, we have a question or tank company at full strength, or one tank,” said in January, Petro Poroshenko.

But it would be more to upgrade and repair. “2017 will be complicated by the fact that we have virtually exhausted the possibility of using old equipment from the arsenals and bases, and new models were not in production. For example, the BTR-4 the BTR-3 is the most production models, but also their production from the point of view of capacity does not meet the needs of staff”, adds “Apostrophe” military expert, Director of information and consulting company defense Express Serhiy Zgurets.

The experts note that priorities of the state defense order would need to replace heavy equipment in the direction of the development of modern means of communication at APU. “Paramount today is a control system. You need to provide APU with the means of communication that will ensure sustainable continuous communication in combat conditions. Than more stable control of the army, the more chances to successfully accomplish a combat mission, tanks and guns I would bet on the second place”, — says Oleg Zhdanov.

But again everything depends on funding. “We have 28 teams. In order for one team to re-equip with modern communication systems, we need 1 billion hryvnia. Accordingly, if we want all teams at the same time lead to the normal sense of control, we need at least 28 billion, which is half of the total budget of the defense Ministry”, — said Sergei Zgurets.

No secrets

In conditions of strictly limited funding, when the nominal budgets of the army are growing, and the actual funding remains at the same level, Ukraine needs to look for other ways to increase defense. “We still have not answered the main question — in what form we want to have a APU? What numbers should be what the army and its equipment? When we answer this question, then it will be written by the program, and the evaluation between what we want and what we can afford. On the difference between “want” and “can” the state must make a decision: either we take out loans, or write a long-term program from what is to what should — adds Zhdanov. — There is another option: we must finally find a system of collective security such as NATO. And you can consider the idea of the Baltic-black sea Union and create in this Union a unified system of collective security. Moreover, a joint Polish-Ukrainian-Lithuanian brigade we have already created as the basis for this military Alliance”.

Medium-term planning of the state defense order, which was first decided to introduce the President and the national security Council, as a whole, experts estimate, as a step forward. “This is due to the fact that in the past year and the year before financial resources were allocated for certain projects only to the end of the year company at the end of the year began to fuss, to perform a particular order, and it was not always possible. For example, the cycle of production of tanks is a year and a half. In the end, the annual defense order was carried out for 5-6 months. We have companies that have not complied with the order last year, he transferred to this year and actually enterprises this year will be to execute two orders simultaneously,” — says Sergey Zgurets.

However, an important point on which insist in the expert community is the removal of the secrecy of a document on the state defense order. On the one hand, in war to hide the needs of the army more than logical, but on the other the veil of mystery creates a significant space for corruption.

“The declassification of the document will form the basis for greater responsibility of all participants, it was immediately clear what equipment is required, does it and if not, for what reason, who buys those or other samples and who produces them. This will allow the expert community and private companies to ensure equal conditions for control and competition, said Sergei Zgurets. Closing of the orders is by and large the country’s defense does not help. You can leave closed only orders for high-precision weapons, electronic warfare and other things. About 10% of the state defense order for particularly sensitive areas need to classify, but everything else should be open. There are risks when the concealment of the state defense order promotes advocacy projects, and equipment, which is not quite meets the needs of the APU and from the point of view of competition can be replaced by other samples of Ukrainian origin.”