Expectations of industrial enterprises
In the first quarter of 2017, the business confidence indicator in industry increased in comparison with IV quarter of 2016 by 6 percentage points, the balance of responses now stands at -5% (i.e. the majority of respondents still are negative), in processing industry this figure has increased compared to the previous quarter by 4 percentage points and is minus 7%.
The business climate indicator in industry increased in comparison with IV quarter 1 PP and 2%, in manufacturing industry it decreased by 1 percentage points to 1%.
The results of the survey revealed the following expectations of respondents regarding the condition of their business activity in the first quarter of 2017 compared to the previous quarter:
– the growth of prices for industrial products;
– the slowdown in the reduction of the number of employees in enterprises;
– reducing the impact of such limiting production factors as financial constraints and lack of demand.
– capacity utilization, as in the fourth quarter of 2016, the average is 64%;
– supply of orders, as in the fourth quarter of 2016, an average of four months.
Continues to diminish the deterrent effect of such production factors as financial restrictions, and the most important factor remains the lack of demand. But its significance is reduced.
In 2016 almost all major industrial groups showed the production growth in annual terms. But we should not forget that the base of comparison (end of 2015) is pretty low.
Expectations of construction companies
The business confidence indicator in construction increased compared to the FOURTH square 2016 3 percentage points and is minus 27%.
When assessing the volume of construction works in October-December 2016 the voices of the respondents were divided into three approximately equal parts: increased 37%, no change – 33% decreased – 30%. Data statistics show significant growth in December.
Residential real estate in 2016, most likely, it was built less than in the record year of 2015.
The results of the business surveys revealed the following expectations regarding the condition of their business activity in the first quarter of 2017 compared to the previous quarter:
– the growth of prices for work performed by construction enterprises (50% vs. 27%);
– the growing influence of such limiting construction activity factor as unfavourable weather conditions (from 10% to 30%), and simultaneous reduction of influence of such factors as financial constraints (51% to 45%) and insufficient demand (35% to 30%);
– availability of orders for construction work, is about the same as in the fourth quarter of 2016, an average of 4.5 months.
Expectations of retailers
The business confidence indicator in retail trade declined compared to the FOURTH square 2016 by 8 percentage points, to minus 1%. While 48% of respondents said that they have sales for October-December 2016 had increased, 27% decreased and 24% has not changed. Official statistics reveal a significant increase in sales.
The results of the survey revealed the following expectations of enterprises regarding their business activities in the first quarter of 2017 compared to the previous quarter:
– reduction of volume of orders from suppliers of goods. Although for 2016, the rate in retail trade has improved steadily;
– reducing the number of employees in enterprises. The figure for the last four quarters and is now the same as it was in January, 2016;
– rising prices of goods. Share pending growth of prices increased during the quarter to 66% against 54%.
Expectations of agricultural enterprises
Measure the volume of output in Oct-Dec 2016, 30% of respondents said it had increased, 37% – has not changed and 32% decreased. Official statistics show that production of almost all agricultural products is growing significantly.
The current amount of stocks of finished products sufficient I think 81%, a very small – 10% and 8% there are no reserves.
With regard to hopes for exports, while they realized little (although the share of enterprises which have no export has been steadily decreasing). However, the situation with exports to the EU slightly better than outside it.
The results of the survey revealed the following expectations of respondents regarding the condition of their business activity in the first quarter of 2017 compared to the previous quarter:
– reduction of production volumes;
– the rise in prices for products of agricultural enterprises;
– the slowdown in reducing the number of employees in enterprises;
– reducing the impact of such traditionally constraining agricultural activity factors as adverse weather conditions (for the quarter from 27% to 21%). The majority of respondents continue to believe the main limiting factor is financial constraints (33%).
The expectations of the enterprises of sphere of services
In the first quarter of 2017, the business confidence indicator in services decreased in comparison with IV quarter of 2016 by 6 percentage points, although for last year he has improved by 12 points Expectations deteriorated in all the main fields of services. 14% of respondents believe that the business situation in October-December 2016 have improved, 57% have not changed 29% – worse.
The results of the survey identified the following expectations regarding the state of business activity in the first quarter of 2017 compared to the previous quarter:
– reducing the number of employees of the enterprises of sphere of services;
– price growth for the services businesses, it is expected everywhere except in real estate transactions;
– reducing the impact on the operation of enterprises of sphere of services of such a deterrent as the lack of demand while strengthening the impact of financial constraints.
– decrease of 0.5 percentage points of capacity utilization of enterprises, which on average is 80.4%.
