In Ukraine the dollar next month will range from 26 to 27 hryvnia, experts believe. The national currency depends not only on the tranche of the IMF, but also from the situation with the blockade of Donbass, which can affect the volume of export sales. The website “Today” found out what the dollar is waiting for the Ukrainians in the next month and that may increase due to the devaluation of the hryvnia.
What will happen to the hryvnia exchange rate
Traditionally March is a quiet month for the currency market, says the head of analytical Department of Concorde Capital Oleksandr Parashchiy. The expert is sure that the dollar rate in Ukraine next month will fluctuate at 27-27,5 hryvnia on the interbank market. Positively on the currency market, said Parashchiy, will affect the currency tranche from the IMF and macroeconomic assistance from the European Union, which is expected in the near future.
See ALSO: what Ukraine can do in order to receive the next tranche from the IMF
Negative impact on the hryvnia exchange rate, says the analyst, can affect blockade of railway tracks in the occupied territory. Due to the shortage of anthracite coal have stopped by a few steel mills that generated export earnings. Says the Prime Minister Vladimir Groysman, the embargo can “go” all Ukrainian steel industry, which brings 20% of foreign exchange earnings.
“Exports will fall. We know that stopped Alchevsk iron and steel works, yenakiieve iron and steel works stopped. At least these two companies will generate export earnings, interbank dollar supply will be slightly lower. It is not critical, but all things being equal it can create some pressure on the hryvnia,” – said Oleksandr Parashchiy.
“Exports will fall. We know that stopped Alchevsk iron and steel works, yenakiieve iron and steel works stopped. At least these two companies will generate export earnings, interbank dollar supply will be slightly lower. It is not critical, but all things being equal it can create some pressure on the hryvnia,” – said Oleksandr Parashchiy.
Another possible blow for the hryvnia, said President of the Ukrainian analytical center Alexander Okhrimenko, a possible ban foreign payment systems in Russia. A large part of the foreign currency in Ukraine, almost seven billion dollars, in Ukraine comes from migrant workers, and relatives abroad, three billion of this amount were sent to Russia, said Okhrimenko.
“The Russian state Duma in the first reading (still have the second reading and voting for the law in General – approx.ed) passed a ban on foreign payment systems. If such a ban is adopted, this will be a severe blow to our course. If there is a ban, it can greatly affect the currency market. Then, of course, figure out how to bring in money, but in time it will blow,” – says Alexander Okhrimenko.
According to experts, if the law is adopted soon, the dollar in Ukraine can jump up to 30 UAH, if not the course will be at the level of 26.9-27.5 hryvnias to the dollar.
C mid-January the demand for hryvnia on the currency market is smaller than the supply, said a senior analyst at Alpari Vadim Iosub. “The trend of the excess of foreign currency supply over demand will continue in March, which means that the value of the dollar will remain under mechanical working”, -said the analyst.
The dynamics of the course will be determined by the activity of the NBU on the currency market. But the desire NBU to replenish FX reserves will largely depend on the fate of the next IMF tranche. Now the situation is a tranche of one billion dollars, officials characterize with the words “all the fundamental issues are resolved, it remains to agree on the fine technical details and the money will come.”
“If by the end of March, the IMF money will come, the NBU can spend the day obsessing about the size of the reserves and to reduce, if not suspend the auctions for the purchase of foreign currency”, – says Vadim Iosub. In this case the dollar by the end of March will decrease to 26,0-26,5 hryvnias. If the IMF does not provide tranche, the dollar in Ukraine will cost 27 USD.
“If by the end of March, the IMF money will come, the NBU can spend the day obsessing about the size of the reserves and to reduce, if not suspend the auctions for the purchase of foreign currency”, – says Vadim Iosub.
What will the devaluation of the hryvnia
From the dollar in Ukraine depends on the cost of gasoline, said Deputy Director of the SEC “Psyche” Gennady Ryabtsev. So, after the devaluation of the hryvnia against the dollar by ten cents, there is economic justification to increase the cost of gasoline by seven cents. 80% of light oil products Ukraine imports, in addition, the currency to pay taxes.
“We have a full proportionality from the devaluation of the exchange rate rising prices as does the price in euros or dollars, as for the import, and simply multiplied by the rate upon transfer to the national currency. Plus and taxes increase. So the prices are still rising slightly more than the devaluation,” – explains the ex-Minister of economy Viktor Suslov.
“We have a full proportionality from the devaluation of the exchange rate rising prices as does the price in euros or dollars, as for the import, and simply multiplied by the rate upon transfer to the national currency. Plus and taxes increase. So the prices are still rising slightly more than the devaluation,” – explains the ex-Minister of economy Viktor Suslov.
In the formula, according to which the Cabinet has calculated the tariff for gas for the population, laid the dollar. The government has decided to revise the cost of imported gas every six months (regulation No. 90). If the tariff is recalculated to reflect the new dollar and more costly imported fuel, according to experts, the cost of a cubic meter of blue fuel will range from 8 to 11 hryvnia (now 6,8 hryvnia).
Expert food markets Fedor Rybakov adds: in the first place along with the dollar becoming more expensive bananas, citrus, fish, cheese and deli meats. For example, the price of bananas in supermarkets are always 1.1 to 1.2 dollarsa pounds.
In addition, the hryvnia exchange rate “tied” prices on foreign cars. “Prices are clearly linked to the exchange rates of the supplier’s country. How will the hryvnia, dollar, Euro, ruble and will change prices. Recent years and months they’ve been growing”, – says Director for marketing of group of companies “AIS” Sergey Borovik
The same situation in the real estate market. Prices for “secondary housing” is set forth in U.S. currency. If, for example, the apartment cost 30 thousand dollars at the moment will cost 810 thousand hryvnia, after a rise in price of the American currency on one hryvnia for the same apartment will have to pay is 840 thousand.
