The race before the presidential election in 2018 has not yet begun, and the organs of justice are already disqualified the first candidate. A conditional sentence is enough to Alexey Navalny in 2018 could not participate in elections. A charismatic opponent of the Kremlin would be the only one who could compete with Vladimir Putin. But this will not happen.
Anyone who believes that the opposition is so small that the Kremlin will not resort to such repressive measures, he is mistaken. In a democratic state more than 50% of the vote — a stable majority. But when autocrats receive less than 70% support, their legitimacy is in question. The results of the election is also to show people his power.
You know how to quickly change the mood. In the winter of 2011, tens of thousands of people protested against rigged election results. On elections of the mayor of Moscow in 2013 Navalny received 27% of the vote, while state television did not show. And so it was that the Kremlin did not look very good.
Opponents always have more to fear than the regime
Another resource is fear. Opponents always have more to fear than the representatives of the regime. This theory fits with new the poisoning of Vladimir Kara-Murza. The coordinator of the movement “Open Russia” in 2015, survived the poisoning and then continued to work. Someone, apparently, such courage seemed a threat.
