The resumption of fighting in Ukraine suits both parties

In the East of Ukraine renewed heavy fighting is underway. At the front killed soldiers and civilians, reported the use of weapons, which the parties had to withdraw from the contact line. The conflict, which in recent months only smoldered, again resumed. According to analyst Vladimir Votapek, in exacerbating both parties are interested, but an essential role in their motivation plays Donald trump.

International community urged to stop the confrontation and to return to the mode of implementation of the Minsk agreements. However, the public asks a question about who provoked another round of fighting and who will benefit from the escalation of tensions.

As always, coming from the two sides of the conflict, the information that led to the resumption of fighting, is very different. The separatists accuse Kiev of that he attacks the rebel positions, and the Kiev government accuses Moscow of aggression, or rather her puppet regimes in Donetsk and Luhansk.

Unambiguous information about who is behind the resumption of hostilities, has not provided even the monitoring mission of the OSCE. It is sad that the international community has failed to achieve greater credibility with the parties to the conflict and thus to create the conditions in which observers could give reliable information about the movement of troops of both sides and to the perpetrators of the violations of the truce.

The fact remains that interested in the resumption of hostilities can be both sides.

Ukraine is interested in a speedy end to the fighting, resolving the situation and restoring its sovereignty throughout the country. After listening to the Pro-Russian statements of trump, Kiev could get worried and decide to desperate measures. First and foremost, Ukraine is afraid that a new and inexperienced U.S. government may believe the Russian speeches and limit support for Ukrainian sovereignty in exchange for the promotion of the interests of the White house in some other region.

Of course, such a move would not affect positively on the new President, so we can expect that the possible transaction the parties want to conclude quietly, without attracting the attention of the international community. So provoking fights Kiev can be regarded as a kind of “prevention”, as an attempt to prevent the alleged secret agreements between Moscow and Washington. Such a Treaty in the first place would be beneficial for Moscow and Kiev, the price would be very expensive.

With the resumption of fighting is the Kremlin?

Uncertainty about the future steps of the new American administration, paradoxically, could and for the Kremlin to serve as a pretext for the resumption of fighting in Ukraine. Putin’s press Secretary Dmitry Peskov as again stated that the recent clashes — the reason for the speedy recovery of the dialogue between Moscow and Washington. From this point of view, the escalation of hostilities is just another continuation of the well known strategy of “frozen conflicts”. The Kremlin exacerbates these conflicts or, on the contrary, weakens, thus successfully manipulating the world community. The resurgence of violence is beneficial to Putin’s administration immediately for three reasons.

The return of heavy fighting to the East of Ukraine is a serious reminder that the Kremlin not only has nuclear weapons but has sufficient potential of conventional weapons to provoke various crises and worsen the international situation. So Russia, which because of their backwardness cannot compete with developed countries in the economy, holds its place at the center for international policy.

The escalation of fighting matches and other purpose of the Kremlin to harass and weaken the Ukrainian state, and thus slow down its rapprochement with Europe. If Ukraine is in all respects weaker state than Russia — were able to continue integration with Europe and to provide its citizens a more prosperous life than the one their citizens offers Putin, it would be irrefutable proof that the current Russian elite is leading the country in the wrong

Constantly revolving, the conflict for Kiev is an open wound where it loses vital funding and personnel. This is a crisis that affects all spheres of life of Ukrainian society. Together with the inability of Kiev to suppress the omnipresent corruption all this into the hands of President Putin.

Finally, the third benefit that the Kremlin derives from the escalation of tensions is the ability to present the puppet regimes in Luhansk and Donetsk as an equal with the Kiev side of the conflict. Seeing the human toll and the worsening humanitarian situation, the European countries, represented primarily by France and Germany, will seek the shortest path to resolving the situation, even at the cost of the regular concessions Moscow and the weakening of the legitimate Ukrainian government.

The struggle for warmth

In search of the culprit in the violation of the truce hint we can give the situation at the front. According to available information, the concentration of fighting is the city of Avdiivka, which is controlled by Ukrainian military. The shelling destroyed all four power lines that supplied the city and the local industrial plant Avdiivka coke plant.

If the production on it is stopped, the whole city will lose the only source of heat, and this in the face of very severe winters will inevitably lead to freezing of the heating system in residential areas and will provoke a mass Exodus. It is difficult to imagine that Kiev ordered his soldiers to fire on the territory, which he himself controls.

It is also clear that without regular and significant support from Moscow separatist forces would be unable for several years to keep fighting on such a scale, what is being done now. Even if you believe the claims of Russian propaganda about that in the beginning of the conflict the rebels took the weapons from Ukrainian military warehouses, located on their territory after years of war, all the ammunition would have been expended, and the weapon would be unusable.

So it is clear: those who help the separatists in the confrontation with Kiev, who supports them financially, with weapons and soldiers, and hence responsible for the present resurgence of the fighting, is the Kremlin.