A full-scale offensive could disrupt the game Putin on easing sanctions – analyst

The aggravation of fighting in Avdeevka could be a Russian provocation during the visit of the President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko in Berlin to accuse Ukraine of disrupting the Minsk agreements. At the same time, the militants attempt to discourage APU Avdeevka industrial Park is not the first inhabitants of the region know and those who fought that Avdiyivka – a suburb of Donetsk and the insurgents are very nervous about the fact that Ukrainian troops are so close. Comments about this “Segodnya” said political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko.

“With a trip to Berlin Poroshenko is practically identical. The aggravation began before and continued on Monday around the same time as negotiations. So wanted to spoil, to break the background, although it seems to me that the effect was the opposite. Previously, it was during major exacerbations in 2014, and winter 2015. During the Minsk talks is just such a large-scale attack on the Ukrainian position was an instrument of pressure on the negotiation process. And Ukraine, and to the West and the West immediately began to fuss, to meet, to force Ukraine to make concessions, and of Ukraine to stop the offensive, had to go to some flexible solutions. Of course, there is a suspicion that now, it might be a provocation to accuse Ukraine, judging by how it serves the Russian media”, – says the analyst.

According to experts, the destruction by militants of transmission lines and provoking a humanitarian disaster may be associated with their emotional reaction to the defeat and retreat. “And do military action – this is not the first attempt. There is a purely tactical fight for the industrial area. The people of the region know and those who fought, Avdiyivka – Donetsk suburb and, of course, the separatists are very nervous about the fact that Ukrainian troops are so close. The current attempt is another attempt to attack the Ukrainian positions in this area”, – said Fesenko.

But, according to experts, a full-scale offensive can be expected. “If earlier Russia has this tool worked quite effectively because they have taken a massive offensive, now what is the complexity of the situation? If you start a massive attack, for example, under the Donetsk to try to push Ukrainian troops not only from Avdeevka, then you will break the line of demarcation, which is coordinated by the Minsk agreements. There is a dispute over debaltseve, however, the line is mostly consistent. If it is broken, and the separatists will lead the attack with the support of Russia, it can disrupt the game Putin on easing sanctions. And Putin now, as we have seen, intensified negotiations with the new U.S. Administration is waiting for an acceptable President of France, so he hopes for an easing of sanctions. My version, Putin is playing a very cunning game: local aggravation – Yes (military action, he will not stop) as an element of pressure to the West and Ukraine,” summed up Volodymyr Fesenko.

As it became known today, the Russian party gave instructions to the fighters on the termination of the shelling of Avdeevka in the period from 10:00 to 17:00. The Ukrainian side expects the arrival of the OSCE observers, while the “truce”.

It was reported that Ukrainian military positions in Donbas over the past day were fired 71 times. Killed three Ukrainian soldiers, 20 injured and four injured.

Avdeevka remained completely without light and heat, the air temperature reaches 20 degrees below zero. Also as a result of the shelling de-energized Donetsk filtering station, which was served on the town’s water supply.

Because of the situation in Avdeevka Petro Poroshenko cut short his visit to Germany, to coordinate measures to prevent a humanitarian catastrophe. The city declared a state of emergency.