New unfortunate mistake of the West

“Given that new U.S. Secretary of state Rex Tillerson lost because of anti-Russian sanctions as a whole, we can say that the government Donald trump’s sanctions will worry more than Russia itself,” — says Teresa Spentserova. It also predicts a change in the US position on Syria and talks about the incredible political and military events that unfold in Libya, a country where in Europe are floating migrants.

Literární noviny: Donald trump went through tough European leaders in an interview with the Times. According to him, the EU doesn’t matter, and NATO is obsolete. Putin he will trust the same as Merkel, and she spent the wrong immigration policy. The German Chancellor responded to these words as the outgoing President of France… What do you think of trump, the reasons for which they were said, and generally how seriously we should take them in the context which statements are made, for example, Tillerson and Mattis during the “interrogation” in Congress? Whether there will be the risk of lifting sanctions against Russia if it to agree to cooperate in the “fight against terrorism”. While actually the future interpretation of the word, according to trump, is extremely important, especially on the issue of Syria…

Teresa Spentserova: Frankly, trump’s words about the EU and NATO is not surprising, because in General the same thing he says for a long time. However, I was amused by the reaction of Europe, which feels humiliated due to the fact that somebody was meddling in its Affairs, and the indignation of John Kerry due to the fact that supposedly it is wrong to openly comment on the politics of other countries. Such speeches from the people who actually stood for “regime change”, military aggression, the overthrow of legitimately elected governments, the destruction of entire States and for the imposition of sanctions due to the fact that they did not like the policies of some countries are just an example of hypocrisy of the highest order. To laugh here or to cry, everyone chooses.

I don’t know what policies will carry the trump in the international arena, so can’t say whether the “threat” of cancellation of sanctions against Russia. But the fact that the Secretary of state was chosen Rex Tillerson, who as head of the oil conglomerate ExxonMobil, has lost in Russia because of the sanctions as a whole, suggests that at least something will change. Probably generalising, we can say that with the trump come the corporations and the oligarchs, whose confrontational and aggressive policy of the Obama-Clinton establishment was not so favorable, and now they want to catch up. Tillerson and other oil magnates are losing because of the sanctions the money, so logically we can expect that they will change their policy against Russia, and that they will find some excuse for the lifting of sanctions to return to the rich deposits in Siberia, or (God forbid) in the pristine region of the Arctic circle. I even got the impression that now the sanctions are bothering them more than Russia, which is already in its own way accustomed to the restrictions, gradually reducing losses and soon will be able to choose how and what will cooperate with the United States. So some changes in the foreign policy of the United States will be, but what, or how radical, I do not undertake to predict. However, it remains to wait a few days and we’ll see.

Perhaps giving this interview, trump wanted thus to test the reaction of Europe, there are few of us to “stir up”, and perhaps find new allies. In the end, the vast majority of the elites of the EU stood on the side of Hillary, and it never hurts these people a little tease. I do not know.

One way or another, but it is already bearing fruit. So, for example, expressed the General of the French air force and Supreme commander transformation, NATO, Denis Mercier. He enthusiastically agreed with trump that NATO “completely obsolete”, too much attention to expansion in different countries (General cited a specific example — Afghanistan). In recent weeks, trump himself often spoke about this continued for more than 16 years “unsuccessful democratization,” and his questions on the subject indicate that he does not understand why the United States is still seeking in this country? By the way, if we forget about decent earnings of all occupation troops involved, then I do not understand… well, I just assumed that US policy in Afghanistan will change. And the same applies to Africa and the Middle East.

The Obama administration was not invited to Astana for peaceful negotiations on Syria, but “trnovci” he called, though, let’s say, Iran argues that the United States there is nothing to do. Russia leaves Syria the right to decide to be in Astana Americans or not. Thus Russia actually opens the door for the start of official contacts administration trump and Damascus, and is in itself a small revolution: from Obama’s “Assad must go” — to the negotiations. Let’s see how events will develop. The talks in Astana starting on Monday, though it isn’t excluded that for “logistical reasons” all will be still delayed. However, there’s no hurry.

Yesterday in the newspaper Lidové noviny has published a commentary that Donald trump, apparently, made his statements knowingly and his policies will be terrible as it looks. Deputy Chairman of the party TOP 09 Zenisek said that trump statements about NATO “out of place”. What do you think about the fear that has gripped the most loyal promoters of “transatlantic ties”? They take the ground from under the feet? What will they do now? Whether they will rally around Merkel, they say, or will just hope that four years back the world they knew before?

— It is possible that many “the ground was slipping from under his feet,” but I think that we are talking not only about the loss of certain ideals and constants — there are actual losses. Of course, everyone who was supposed to be a convenient journalistic or political life in the role of the American vassal abstracted from reality, deep down may wish that this nightmare did not last long, and then again “normal”. But, on the other hand, this year Europe will have a series of elections, which can completely destroy the whole concept. Also, there are many unsolved problems that due to constant delays can lead to a real explosion. I’m afraid that while some of the soil out from under the feet, others just watching the change. After the events of the 2016 Europe will change its appearance, but we know that without the statements of Donald trump from overseas. And what will happen in four years? Even on the American election will win again some “correct” candidate, surely he will attack Europe and force the French, Dutch, Brits, Italians, and others again to gather in obedient crowd? In such a scenario I would not put a penny.

One American magazine published a humorous column by writing that “George W. Bush is glad that Friday will no longer be the worst US President in history”, although he allegedly did not hope for such in life. If you take this seriously, although, of course, it’s a joke… Hope George Bush could be justified?

Comparison of the incomparable is deceptive, and in these matters the first violin always played by the media. The fact that trump has made such a media devil that even Obama with Bush suddenly seem to be angels and geniuses. However, there are numbers that can be compared. The trump attribute declared a radical fight against illegal migration, but under Obama the US was deported 2.4 million migrants, and under Bush “only” two million. Bush only bombed four countries, whereas Obama — seven, and it’s ten times increased the number of drone strikes worldwide. Under Obama, the United States sold abroad weapons almost 280 billion dollars, and under Bush “only” 140 billion… Trump only to “earn” their figures, but if the pressure against him will continue, it is clear that he will be “the worst US President of all time”, even if this tycoon — suddenly — will be a good President.

— Refer to one specific problem: more and more fragmented regions of Libya engulfed in civil war, takes control of General Khalifa Haftar. It support Russian. It’s shocking, but for the past 20 years he has American citizenship (!!!), and initially, he acted in accord with governmental circles, which has been recognized by the international community. Please describe us more the current situation and tell us how is it possible that an American citizen in the Russian support acts against the United States? To whom Obama made a bet, if things have turned out? As for Libya, the Prime Minister of Malta, the presiding country of the EU, warns that due to the severe civil conflict in the spring the EU may come a record number of migrants. Is it really so? And what solution can be found in the country that was formerly run by Colonel Gaddafi?

Khalifa Haftar really once was a prominent figure in the Gaddafi regime, but then he bribed the CIA, he flipped, unsuccessfully led the rebellion against Gaddafi and then fled to the United States, where he lived quietly to themselves as the honored agent in retirement. It “exhumed” only after to everyone’s surprise it turned out that the murder of Muammar Gaddafi did not bring democracy in Libya — on the contrary, the state was destroyed, and the whole country was plunged into chaos, and control took different Islamist or a terrorist group. But then everything is very complicated, so I will summarize. A few years General Haftarot has been able to consolidate his own army, which today operates as the largest and most obedient military force in Libya, and displace with extensive territories and Jihad, and to take control of most of the Libyan oil terminal… In General, the General has become a defining force in the Libyan conflict. Interestingly, almost simultaneously, most likely under the impression of the events in Syria, Haftar began to send their emissaries to Moscow, and after he began to go into negotiations on the supply of arms. A few weeks ago he even flew in a helicopter to the Russian aircraft carrier, which “by coincidence” had anchored not far from the Libyan coast. It is important to understand that, most likely, the General has maintained close ties with the CIA, for whom such cooperation with Russia in Libya is probably beneficial. We must remember that the destruction of Libya at the time was made by the American General, who negotiated with Gaddafi on the transfer of power, but in the end Hillary Clinton has decided that Libya should just be destroyed. Everything else Haftar enjoys the support of neighboring Egypt, who is also cooperating with Russia, and a few days ago, the pilots are mercenaries from the infamous Blackwater helped the Haftarot to bombard the jihadists in Benghazi.

I don’t claim to know the whole background of events in Libya today, but more and more obvious that there is unfolding cooperation between the US and Russia, and in the months after the arrival of trump, we learn a lot more. Anyhow, but already today it is clear that General Haftar will be part of guiding the future of Libya, and he is likely to amount to Gaddafi’s son Saif Islam, who became a “voluntary prisoner” of influential rebels from Zintan in southern Libya. It is not possible to send to Tripoli or to the Hague, and now in many reviews it is called the only person able to restore Libya’s unity. Saif Islam brings the symbolism, traditions and international connections which tied up while training in London, and the Haftarot would support his military force, so it most likely will be arranged.

With regard to the migration waves, there is reason to assume that when the power of the Haftarot with Russian, or American, or Egyptian support will start to move throughout Libya, the masses of jihadists will have no choice but to retreat, and in this particular case, it means a sea voyage to Europe… If something like this happens, that a migration wave to be rather disposable, and it still could be “something to do”. What no Libyan government in the future will be able to play the role of “tubes”, that is, to perform the same function as under Gaddafi. So some hope there.

— Britain said it plans an exit from the EU at the hard scenario. Analysts discuss three possibilities: either the UK will disintegrate, either agreed with the EU, or the EU due to be held in some member countries of the elections will be plunged into such chaos that in the end all change. Which option you think is likely? And by the way, how’s the new President of the European Parliament?

I don’t know which option is correct, because I seem likely all three, although the third, you have the option of chaos, seems the most plausible.

As for the new President of the European Parliament, I do not know who he is. And what is the European Parliament? But seriously, I follow him around the corner of my eye, and I know that the Chairman of fragmented and decaying of the European Parliament were chosen demure Tajani, was totally unconvincing on the post of the Commissioner. What can I say? I have a strong feeling that the Titanic orchestra uncovers his private parts…

— Serbia sent to Kosovo, the special train that is due to Kosovo Albanian authorities have not passed. This provoked a verbal storm: so, the President of Kosovo Thaci blamed Serbia in the attempt of the military occupation of Kosovo, the Serbian President said that if the Serbs are poison, they all gather and come to take Kosovo back. How do you assess this incident, and how to interpret the problem in light of the fact that in recent years Kosovo we are not very interested? And how should believe the reports of the Serbian media, according to which the Kosovo authorities are afraid that Donald trump gave up on them and leave at the mercy of the Serbs?

— I think that the incident is fully integrated into the nervous atmosphere at the moment of transfer of power in the White house, when some fear that the umbilical cord, which they tied to their puppet masters, breaks off, and others grow wings behind his back. Both sides are speculating what will happen and what is not, and according to its own ideas about conducting “reconnaissance in force”, that is trying to find out what they can get away with it. Let’s wait a few weeks or months and then just get wiser. While I understand that hotheads in the Balkans will not be able to wait until trump will decide on Kosovo, and want to act…

— At the world business forum in Davos the star was, oddly enough, XI. And what is surprising: there he zealously defends globalization and all that ensues from it: free trade and the free circulation of goods in the world! While trump is planning protective measures and wants pretty tough to put pressure on American companies to bring jobs back to the US. And he is a capitalist and the President of the country, which, in fact, the beginning of globalization! What happens?

— And there is something what I have already said, the world is changing before our eyes — literally live. China, which gradually turned into economic and, above all, export megaterium, trying to direct global capitalism, and America only to protect and close the border! Unbelievable but it’s true. And as inappropriate in this context, are all opponents of the “pivot to the East”!

— So, most likely, there will be no war. Then what can we expect in the next seven days?

In the coming days, the mainstream media will flood us with detailed descriptions of protests against the inauguration of trump, so again we dropped a tear over the cruel fate and the fate of Hillary, and on Monday in Astana will start a peace conference on Syria. There may be laid the basis for future termination of the war, and yet this is the first action that can give some idea about the real politics of the trump. Therefore peace negotiations in Kazakhstan are much more interesting than the endless list of stars of show business, who will not sing and not dance with trump on Friday…