An autopsy of the campaign, Hillary Clinton and recipes victory trump

The story of the election campaign in the United States in 2016 instructive for politicians all over the world, because the complexity of the technology used and the variety of electoral platforms in the form of individual States allow almost anyone to make something useful for yourself.

It so happened that I watched the preparations for these elections and then the progress of the campaign since 2012. “Minchenko consulting” dedicated to this election campaign two of the detailed report, and the total volume of the prepared reference materials is several thousand pages. In addition, a lot of interesting information were collected in the backroom dealing with politicians and political consultants in the United States. Therefore, in this article I will try to do in a compressed form the reconstruction of the domestic food campaigns of Hillary Clinton and Donald trump and the logic of their development.

It should be noted that the team of Hillary Clinton, including her and her husband did a great job on preparing her election to the presidency. Decades spent in politics by Mr. and Mrs. Clinton have allowed them to build a network of contacts both within the country and abroad. The main tool was money and personnel policy — communication with business groups, financing of campaigns and placement. Insiders say that the Clintons never forget. They have two booklets — one they record those who owe them and to whom they owe something, the second enemies. The second is much thicker and many times wished that he was in her.

The vast majority of the stars of the Democratic party owe their rise to the support of the Clintons, who were purposefully engaged in selection of new personnel and their support by collecting for them the financing of the election campaign and providing a status of the site. However, not all of these protégés was grateful, as, for example, Barack Obama, fundraising, election campaign, which in the Senate election Hillary Clinton took an active part. And it was the idea of the Clintons to give young African Americans the opportunity to speak at the party Congress in 2004. This statement was first attracted to the future Senator, and then President the attention of the national media.

The nomination of Obama at the Democratic primary in 2007, the Clintons first regarded as a bad joke. However, their former protégé, quickly gained momentum, using two factors — the consolidation of enemies of the Clintons within the party (those that were in the “wrong book”) and the request of the electorate for change, which even then, Hillary, “not so new”, is not very consistent with. The Clintons underestimated the risks associated with the nomination of Obama. And their main mistake was the wrong team selection. Since the victory was considered a foregone conclusion, the bet was made on personally loyal cadres and figures had symbolic meaning — for example, several African American women, which had become a symbolic counterweight to Obama.

Another problem was the candidate. Master elite negotiations, bargains and behind the scenes, Hillary did not become an ardent speaker (felt delanote and insincerity) and failed to rebuild relationships with journalists that have gone wrong since those times when she was first lady first of Arkansas and then America. In the end, Obama, who was able to create an impression of sincerity and enthusiasm, gathered a team of the best professionals (David Record, David Axelrod and others) and actively used new for that time technology microTargeting, mass fundraising and mobilization of field networks via the Internet, was able to defeat Hillary in the primaries. However, he needed the support of the Clintons in the General election, and there was an exchange of this support for the post of Secretary of state to Hillary.

But the Clintons have not forgotten anything. And on the eve of presidential elections 2012 suddenly there was a story that Barack Hussein Obama is not eligible to be President because he was born outside the country. This version, which had previously appeared mostly on marginal resources, was in the centre of the international agenda thanks to the activity of the eccentric new York billionaire Donald trump. Trump was close to the family Clinton. They were with him at the wedding. Bill was a regular partner of Donald in Golf. Friends of their daughter, Chelsea and Ivanka. Trump was one of the campaign contributors to Hillary, while in 2011 he declared his intention to run for President from the Republican party. Later, when trump was accused that he was unfair to Obama, he explicitly stated that the source of information about the birth of the future President in Kenya were people from the Clintons. But that time after Obama, after a pause, he presented the birth certificate, trump was forced to retreat and abandon his nomination.

The way to the primaries

In 2012, before the resignation of the Secretary of state, Hillary begins preparations for elections in 2016. For the Clintons, as for Lenin, the most important of all arts is the cinema. Using his connections among the “creative intelligentsia”, they inspire a line of products dedicated to the promotion of recognizable, but carefully lacquered image of the female politician (wife of former or incumbent President, the Secretary of state). Series “Political animals,” “Madam Secretary”, “house of cards” and several others demonstrate a strong and principled woman who is steadily moving to its goal — the presidency. This story was reinforced by a stream of books, both the Clinton and about her.

The Clintons actively promoted his men to key positions in the Democratic party. A big success for them was the advent of the post of Chairman of the National Committee of the Democratic party Debbie Wasserman-Schultz, who was as loyal as its predecessor Donna brazile, but much more sophisticated in intrigues.

In the midterm elections to Congress in 2014, Hillary and bill are actively involved in fundraising for democratic candidates and campaigning for them during the campaign, strengthening and updating their network of supporters. This is very useful, because it is at this time the peak of the unpopularity of President Obama. One of the popular jokes of the time: “the Winner of the marathon was the candidate of the democratic party running away from Obama, who tried to support it”.

In parallel, the Clintons are waging a serious struggle against potential rivals in the presidential primaries, using the carrot (in the form of media leaks of compromising) and stick (in the form of a promise of certain status positions). The influence of the Clintons is that in the backstage confrontation with the President they manage in the spring of 2015 to push for re-election as mayor of Chicago, former head of the presidential administration, Rahm Emanuel, who at that time quarreled with his former Manager.

The Obama team did not remain in debt — most of the leaks of negative information about Hillary, including the famous scandal with the private mail server, the observers associated with it. However, the President has to deal with her candidacy. Senator Elizabeth Warren can’t increase rating. Michelle Obama, the talk about the possibility of a political career which occur regularly, are not ready to struggle for the highest post. Vice President Joe Biden, who would be the best candidate from the point of view of Obama, demoralized by the death from cancer of a beloved son Bo, and lose interest in the struggle for power. A large part of the establishment, not only democratic, konsolidiruyutsya around the Clintons, and Obama seems — it is more important to protect their heritage, which is possible only in case if it will be replaced by a representative of his party.

The first failures

And at this point, I think, has been a major psychological shift, which largely predetermined the subsequent defeat of the Clintons — they decided that the main problem is solved and victory already in his pocket, now I just need to hold out until election day. Therefore, in may 2015, after receiving information on how to pass the meeting of the staff favorite of the democratic party (which, according to eyewitnesses, was a carbon copy of the unsuccessful campaign of 2007-2008), we concluded that with Hillary as a candidate the Democratic party could lose.

Realizing the weakness of Hillary as a public candidate, the democratic establishment decides to maximally dilute primaries, releasing as her opponents a couple who, it would seem, successfully emphasizes the dignity of Clinton, the inexperienced Governor of Maryland O’malley and the “democratic socialist” Bernie Sanders, who is in his seventies and is Hillary still looks relatively young.

However, this is error: “Zeitgeist”, the request for change and sincerity, is blowing in the sails of Sanders, and he is rapidly beginning to gain momentum, unexpectedly repeating the success of Obama’s collection of small donations via the Internet and a large meeting real enthusiasts. To stop Bernie, you have to turn on the party machine. Numerous instances of work of the Democratic national Committee against Sanders, the charges of rigging the primaries, unreasonable refusal in registration of delegates from Bernie, despite the self-censorship of the media, seeped into the social network and private media and to the publication of the leaks of “Wikileaks”.

In addition, almost a foregone conclusion the status of Hillary as the nominee from the democratic party, makes it still in the early stages of the campaign the target of her potential opponents from the Republicans, each on intra-party debate is considered necessary once again to walk on it.

In these unexpectedly difficult conditions the team Clinton, especially that part of it which was engaged in advertising, has done a very good job. In fact, they were engaged in a “campaign without a candidate” focusing on videos with the representatives of target groups and campaign support from the niche authorities, organizations and the media, an appeal to the historical characters and archetypes.

Carefully bring the candidate in contact with journalists and dosing its contacts with voters, which became possible due to the loyalty of the greater part of the media, creatives, Clinton was able to create three-dimensional and quite attractive the way an experienced woman that knows the real needs of different audiences. At the same time, and the most powerful professionals could not keep the candidate from mistakes. In parapolitical circles actively discussed the rumors about how Hillary first did a rejuvenating plastic surgery, and then when it has raised the IRE of feminists, was forced to make the opposite correction. At the meetings in the southern States, Clinton tried to mimic a specific “black” dialect that is not perceived as a real closeness to the voters, but rather as a mockery.

The costs of the backswing

Faced with the problems inside the base of the electorate, the headquarters of the Clintons comes to the conclusion that the key to victory is to destabilize the situation inside the Republican party. And here is speaking of his intentions to participate in the primaries of the Big Old Parties according to an old friend of the Clintons, Donald trump, whom they in this intention strongly informal support. An outsider to the Republican establishment, sharp and politically incorrect, a conflict, a winner of high rating, trump appears to be the best sparring partner. And democratic media get a secret order to pump up the trump rating among Republicans, exposing it as the most unacceptable to a democratic electorate candidate and paying maximum attention to his radical statements (“operation pied Piper”).

Trump only that I had. Using its wholly-owned fame and unorthodox style, he can afford to give, it would seem, from the immutable rules of conduct policy. Trump does not use the services of sociologists and specialists in microTargeting is not bargained for the support of local elites and insults of those who insult you — women, the disabled, and veterans. The main weapon of “Ernest Hemingway one hundred and forty characters” is his Twitter account and attract media attention, and no matter positive or negative. To be in the center of the news agenda and look the main opponent of the establishment (first the Republican and then democratic) — the main task.

Breaking the resistance of the party apparatus in Congress, trump becomes the Republican candidate. And here, despite the sabotage of important individual figures and governors, party resource starts to work on him. Key success factors — conducted in advance of correction of the electoral legislation in several States (mainly the tightening of the rules of voter registration that reduces the significance of the Democrats support minorities, and to reduce opportunities for preferred Democrats early voting) and the need for cross-linking of the campaigns of candidates for the Senate and for governors with the presidential campaign. We conducted a detailed analysis of the campaigns in the disputed States shows that in most of them Republican candidates in the Senate and the governors with some share of the enthusiasm had to support trump.

You can tell that this factor of forced mobilization of the Republican party around its candidate for the presidency has been undervalued for team Clinton. When the part of prominent Republicans refused to support the trump after the publication of his “sexist statements”, Clinton’s team took it as a loss of the mass base of the party. At the final stage of the campaign they have set the task not just to win, and crushing defeat, surpassing the result of Obama.

Confident of victory in States such as Wisconsin and Michigan, Democrats are trying to break the traditional stronghold of the Republicans, Arizona, Texas, Georgia, Missouri, putting back some serious money, they could be much better spent in troubled States “rust belt”. For example, Wisconsin was one of the few disputed States where trump has spent on TV ads more than Clinton — seven million dollars to three. This difference could be covered by the senseless spending Clinton in “good” state Democrats Illinois (more than $7 million just for TV ads). But Hillary was important not just to win in his home state, and win big. She won, as won in California, while losing the bare minimum in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Minnesota, which decided the outcome of the campaign.

Priorities Trump

The scarcity of financial and organisational resources trump is compensated for by sighting the work in the disputed States (which, in addition to States “rust belt”, was critical of Florida with its 29 electoral votes) and with key target groups (white, working-class, white women, religious conservatives, residents of the suburbs and rural areas, Latinos, especially the elderly and Cuban origin). For communication with these groups as key instruments were the local media (in contrast to the nationwide, where the advantage Clinton had multiple), niche ideological media (Fox, Breitbart), communications and broadcast personal accounts of the candidate (by the way, the staff was a big feast when they managed to intercept the candidate has control over his Twitter) and personal mass meeting candidate.

Targeted advertising in social networks also played a role, but not decisive, it is like trying to present masters of self-promotion. The fake news was used by both staffs, and I would even venture to suggest that, given the media superiority of the democratic party, with her there were more. Letter of the Director of the FBI on the investigation of Clinton, according to polls had a dramatic influence on the ratings of candidates, as has not had and the fact that his private meetings with bill Clinton’s attorney General Loretta Lynch. It was only one episode in the information war.

If to speak about external intervention, the notorious hackers hacked the server of the democratic party, drew attention to the already existing problem of cheating the party establishment against Bernie Sanders in favor of Hillary Clinton. A major image problem for Clinton in this regard — the lack of response is essentially an attempt to swing the issue just as in the situation with the email scandal and the sexual allegations against her husband. If we talk about external interference in the elections of the President of the United States, the palm needs to argue is not Russia, which is also marked, and the Saudis, with their long-term financial support of the family of Clinton, and Ukraine, where officials openly disseminated information, which, in their opinion, compromised trump.

New and old family

In conclusion, I want to stress the importance of the mental attitude of the teams of candidates. If at the last stage of the campaign team Hillary tried to hold on to a foregone conclusion, in their opinion, the victory and focused on the division of portfolios in a future administration, the tramp and his staff, already psychologically ready for your defeat, in a situation when you have nothing to lose, caught the spirit and were laid as the last time, which brought the result.

And a few words about the future of three influential families — Clinton, Obama and trump. It is likely that in the coming decades political news from the USA will be associated with their representatives.

Barack Obama, judging by his protracted farewell to the President and a fairly high approval ratings at the time of resignation, will continue to play a major role in politics. He will take defeat Hillary in order to minimize the influence of the Clintons within the party. One step in this direction was the statement by Joe Biden that it plans to participate in presidential elections in 2020. By the way, since Biden, despite his age, had a much better chance against trump, given his popularity among blue-collar workers, the change in position which caused the “blow of mercy” Clinton campaigns. In parallel, the promotion of Michelle Obama as a political figure. So we have a chance to see the campaign promoting “the first black woman President”. Because Hillary is so well warmed up this topic.

The negative reaction of the party with a Clinton on her plans to run for mayor of new York and the age factor reduces the weight of the clan of the Clintons, but their wide network of contacts will continue. Already announced a campaign of Chelsea Clinton in the House of representatives in 2018. And the role of her friend Ivanka trump and Ivanka’s husband Jared Kushner in the administration of the new President is extremely high. Tandem Ivanka — Jared, according to the survey of experts we conducted in the preparation of the report of the “Washington regional Committee of Donald trump: the team of the 45th President of the USA”, began to increase their influence at the stage of transit.