It was in the fall. Then the head of Federal Chancellery Peter Altmaier (Peter Altmaier) received a secret document. It was a 50-page report on the results of investigation of the German secret service, which is to give the answer to the question “kantslerin” Angela Merkel: does the Russian government is trying to manipulate public opinion in Germany?
Joint report of the intelligence services and counter-intelligence was devoted to the analysis of anxiety phenomena, starting with alleged organized from abroad, demonstrations against Merkel and finishing work is configured friendly to Russia of club of combat sports. The theme is consistent with time: American intelligence agencies have also recently come to the conclusion that the Kremlin sought to influence the outcome of the recent elections of the President of the United States. So Germany, where the fall will be elections to the Bundestag, could be the next target.
However, the evidence for this thesis is problematic, and, from the point of view of the Federal Chancellery, he was not very successful. The report of the intelligence services for several months lay on the table of the head of the office of the Chancellor of Altmeyer, but conclusive evidence was not, and no. For this reason, this report cannot be published and become public. The question remains: is the Russian government really clean? Or just the German intelligence services failed to detect evidence of systematic manipulation by Russia?
Required “further investigation”
In the report of the special services described as the Kremlin, starting in 2014, moving openly “confrontational course” seeks to destabilize the situation in the West, but the acts are so cleverly that it is impossible to catch. According to the report, Russian intelligence agencies do not participate in this directly, but act through individuals (and organizations) who are not their employees. Still, these individuals “did not play a significant role in terms of the threat to the security interests of Germany.” However, a “further investigation”.
From the point of view of the German secret service, there is no doubt that the thread of the investigation — if there are any clues will ultimately lead to the Kremlin. He “seeks to provoke a split within the EU and Germany and thereby weaken their position.” Coordinates the actions of the Russian presidential administration, that is, the immediate environment of Vladimir Putin. This centralization brings its fruits. “The concentration of all activities exerting influence in the presidential administration is an important factor of success,” the report said.
As an illustrative example of a “long arm” of the Kremlin secret services lead the so-called Lisa, which even forced Angela Merkel to give the order for his thorough investigation. In early 2016, 13-year-old daughter of immigrants from Russia was gone for a few days and then told that she was kidnapped and raped by a few “natives of the southern countries.” The situation was initially extremely confusing, but Russian state media, and foreign Minister, raised the noise around this case and criticized the migration policy of the German authorities. Throughout Germany, in particular directly in front of the Chancellery in Berlin, held a series of protest demonstrations with the participation of the mainly “Russian Germans”.
Whether these actions instigated by the Kremlin? The secret service interviewed the organizers of the demonstrations on this account, but they replied the same thing: they are thus only sought to Express their fear of “uncontrolled influx of migrants”. The conclusion of the German secret service: “open/direct management or funding from the Russian authorities or the security services have in any case failed to prove”.
Example number two: last winter in the mobile application Whatsapp were actively spreading the message: “Muslims organise sex Jihad in Europe on February 14”. Supposedly Muslim immigrants in Valentine’s day planned mass rape of German women. Supposedly the call was made by a Islamic preacher and the German police is unable to protect women. According to police, the message spread “in droves” among the “Russian Germans”. As in the case of “Lisa”, thus it was expected to provoke protests against immigration policy “kantslerin”. However, this rumor was spread amateurish, in connection with which German intelligence agencies have concluded that the Russian leadership had no part in this.
Example number three: supposedly Russia maintains close contacts with the German “rules of the camp.” Against right-wing populist party “Alternative for Germany” (ADH) say that in this respect “to monitor possible attempts by the Russian side influence” on German public opinion. However, the evidence of close ties or financial support from Russia is also no. Against radically leftist forces, intelligence agencies noted that the video Agency RT during the protests against the G7 summit in ELMAU removed the extremists, do not use means of concealment. Usually they do not allow anyone to do such a thing. But what does that prove?
The report provides a number of opportunities to influence public opinion in Germany, which could use Russia. In particular, a RT and an Internet website Sputnik News, which, in the opinion of the German secret service, acting with hostility and promote the idea that the West is the “personification of evil”. From the point of view of journalism, both of these media are, to put it mildly, controversial methods.
For several months in the air hovered the suspicion that the cyber attacks is Russia
Or, for example, the Russian school of martial arts “System” in Ludwigsburg: its members, in fact, represent the issues faced by the German security services. On the one hand, the threat is that, presumably, members of this school maintain contacts with the Russian security companies or gunmen, as well as with the Russian club of bikers “Night wolves” who preach “faith in a strong Russian state”. On the other hand, German intelligence agencies believe that in this case “direct participation” of their Russian colleagues is unlikely, and even “virtually eliminated”.
Problems with the evidence of the German experts on security is, in the case of hacker attacks. For many months there were suspicions that Russia, in particular, could be behind multiple cyber attacks on the website of the Bundestag for the subsequent impact on the election campaign. Proof of participation in the “Russian hackers” is the fact that they included their computers exactly at the beginning of the working day in Russia, and also used codes in Cyrillic. Some members of the security services it is important evidence. However, in the office of the Chancellor there is no certainty, because the Russian special services is unlikely to have made such mistakes.
Based on this complex study, we draw two conclusions: either no attacks from Putin just yet, or the Russian intelligence agencies are so professional that our German colleagues just can’t identify them. The last inclined to the second version. Although, according to them, they failed to set activity “formal security structures of concern is the participation of persons or organizations not formally related to intelligence, but actually involved in related activities”. Because of the “unpredictability of certain forces in Russia” it is impossible to make specific predictions about the further development of the situation in Germany.
In this matter the German secret services are much more “alarmist” than the representatives of political circles. So, even before the finalization of this report they carried out explanatory work with deputies of the Bundestag. However, the head of the office of the Chancellor Altmaier not convinced there is a “Russian trace” and refuses to publish the report. However, it is also possible to consider a certain “message” to the Kremlin: “We haven’t found, but are closely monitoring the situation”.
